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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Taycan regenerates when using the brake pedal, so that’s not a factor in its low speed inefficiency.

True, if you know what you're doing. The Tesla is set up to not only be more fun to drive (one pedal driving unless racing) but to encourage efficient driving even if you don't know how to hypermile (which is certainly possible in the Taycan if you know what you're doing).
 
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Tesla is a compelling, positive story.

Shorts always spin the negative side of any story, of any aspect of Tesla. I bring this up, to emphasize the we shouldn’t be drawn in the mud.

My resolution this year, is to focus my Tesla narrative on the positive aspects of sustainable transportation and renewable energy. As an example my boss likes to tell me that EVs are powered by coal-fired electrical generation and dirtier than internal combustion engines. I always respond that my car is charged from the solar system on my house like many EV owners.

There’s an old adage about wrestling with a pig. Since Tesla does not advertise, it falls to Tesla owners and word of mouth. Sell Tesla cool factor and end with a flourish about fear of missing out.

Ya’ll be cool.
 
Things are moving along in Berlin

If that video is correct (see snip below from ~3m55s, vs the outline of the GF4 property from Wikipedia) then all the areas that need animals/etc resettled are actually south of the GF proper, so shouldn't impede the main forest harvesting and construction, but only perhaps other adjacent things like bringing in utilities etc.

gf4-resettlement.png


gf4-map.png
 
If you have enough assets with them, you get an "advisor". There's not any real difference except they don't make the trade for you.

I've had that with Schwab for 20 years. Never use them. They are actually pretty idiotic (although they always sound very professional and polite) which is why they took a job with a salary. Just say no. I would buy an index fund before I listened to these well-meaning clowns!
 
Solar and wind curtailment reached record levels in 2019, says AEMO | RenewEconomy

This solar farm has to switch off every second day due to negative prices | RenewEconomy

This provides some indication of the market for energy storage batteries.... not just time shifting electricity into the evening peak, but charging the battery when prices are negative and discharging when prices are higher...

So often when prices are negative during the day, there may still be high prices during the evening peak.....

And if batteries can contribute to "system strength" they can keep RE running as a higher percentage of the grid...... this last part is a bit like FSD ... it needs to be proven to work, then the regulators need to be happy...
 
At the risk of being O/T, the Tesla density in Vancouver is amazing. I work in Coal Harbour and have routinely seen Teslas following each other they are so frequent. I quietly smile to myself as a walk around town seeing the familiar headlights and taillights quietly zipping about. The relative affluence, EV credit and, weather obviously play a large role, but it is very encouraging to see such levels of adoption in a large city.

Eight per cent of new vehicles in BC sold last year were EV.
 
Don't underestimate Elon Musk. He will transition the entire world over to EVs if the legacy automakers don't.

I am sure the French and German governments will be happy to see Tesla take 80% plus EU automotive market share.

The Japanese government will be happy to see Tesla take 80% plus Japanese automotive market share.

The Chinese government will be happy to see Tesla take 80% plus Chinese automotive market share.

Thats how things work in the real world.
 
Seems like a no-brainer but could SpaceX vastly increase launch pricing to pull the profits and FCF to their side?
People keep forgetting what the goals of Tesla and SpaceX are. It isn't profit, it is to get the world off fossil fuel and get a backup world. For these goals, profit is necessary but not the actual goal itself.
 
People keep forgetting what the goals of Tesla and SpaceX are. It isn't profit, it is to get the world off fossil fuel and get a backup world. For these goals, profit is necessary but not the actual goal itself.
True, but SpaceX needs the cash to build all those Starships, etc. But they also can't kill the golden goose (Starlink) if they need that continuous infusion of cash. So probably not an issue.
 
Assuming this is true what will happen to the Panasonic cell plant within Giga Reno? The current contract with Panasonic runs through 2023 for an outdated battery cell production. The details of contract are not public. I assume that it has some clause for early termination, meaning Tesla can pay a ~$B or so to terminate the contract early. (hopefully in installments running through 2023.)

My hypothesis is that Tesla "licenses" the DBE process to Panasonic, since Panasonic has been a good partner over the years, and Panasonic still has good supplier relationships (like Sumitomo) that supply the other components of the cell. This would help the mission by having a trusted partner that can expand the battery supply with Panasonic's customers, without impacting Tesla's supply.

This would accelerate the mission (by forcing the cost of batteries below the $100/kwh point, making BEV's cheaper to build than ICE's) and remove the ramp-up lag that would be involved with vertically integrating the cell production process (from the gigafactory investor day, we learned that the Panasonic cell production machine took up an entire room).

Building the cells themselves would require developing their own cell production machines and setting up supplier agreements with raw material suppliers and/or specialty chemical suppliers. It's not impossible, but it is an unnecessary burden unless Panasonic is unable to integrate the DBE process. Much faster to just have Panasonic license the tech and sell back the cheaper cells.
 
I am sure the French and German governments will be happy to see Tesla take 80% plus EU automotive market share.

The Japanese government will be happy to see Tesla take 80% plus Japanese automotive market share.

The Chinese government will be happy to see Tesla take 80% plus Chinese automotive market share.

Thats how things work in the real world.

He’ll keep them happy by building state of the art gigafactories in their countries while innovating new technologies and taking over German firms like Grohmann and rewarding the workforce with stock options.
 
I just took a cruise through the sounds of New Zealand and the one thing that annoyed me was the exhaust from the ship obscured part of the view. I was taking panoramic photos and would either have to include the smoke or cut the panorama short. A Battery Electric cruise ship would be awesome. Like you said, the charge time would be the issue. Port stops are generally 4 to 8 hours and the time between the end of one cruise and the start of the next is about 12 hours. I would also think it takes a lot of energy to move those things especially when there's strong head winds. There is also a lot of energy use by the passengers, lighting and music in the clubs, ovens for the dining rooms, washers and dryers for laundry, etc. These things are essentially floating cities.
People in Amsterdam living near the docks complain about the cruise ships exhaust fumes. They keep their engines running while moored because the electricity generated from the (untaxed) fuel is actually cheaper than electricity from the local utility company .
 
My hypothesis is that Tesla "licenses" the DBE process to Panasonic, since Panasonic has been a good partner over the years, and Panasonic still has good supplier relationships (like Sumitomo) that supply the other components of the cell. This would help the mission by having a trusted partner that can expand the battery supply with Panasonic's customers, without impacting Tesla's supply.

This would accelerate the mission (by forcing the cost of batteries below the $100/kwh point, making BEV's cheaper to build than ICE's) and remove the ramp-up lag that would be involved with vertically integrating the cell production process (from the gigafactory investor day, we learned that the Panasonic cell production machine took up an entire room).

Building the cells themselves would require developing their own cell production machines and setting up supplier agreements with raw material suppliers and/or specialty chemical suppliers. It's not impossible, but it is an unnecessary burden unless Panasonic is unable to integrate the DBE process. Much faster to just have Panasonic license the tech and sell back the cheaper cells.

I think Tesla and Panasonic will retain a long standing working relationship, and Tesla may licence DBE to Panasonic...

But the purchase of Hibar makes me think Tesla will make some of their own packs... not withstanding the issues in sourcing materials etc.

As I stated earlier only for Plaid Model S/X and Cybertruck initially...

That would initially be lower volumes on a slower more incremental ramp...

One thing Tesla may do is make DBE cathodes and anodes and supply them to other battery makers or install Tesla DBE equipment in the customers factory... this is easy at GF Nevada... just another wall where things pass from Tesla to Panasonic...

What i don't know is how easily DBE cathodes and anodes could be transported ...

So IMO there are 3-4 possibilities and it is hard to guess the right one..

My hunch is existing Panasonic lines that are making cells are not impacted, and will not be impacted for some time... it is probably easier to make DBE packs with entirely new lines....
 
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I am sure the French and German governments will be happy to see Tesla take 80% plus EU automotive market share.

The Japanese government will be happy to see Tesla take 80% plus Japanese automotive market share.

The Chinese government will be happy to see Tesla take 80% plus Chinese automotive market share.

Thats how things work in the real world.

Tesla doesn't need to make it easy for them..... but you are right other car makers can fall back on a bit of government support.

But that doesn't mean all current car makers will get support, in the end the governments will probably help those that do a better job of the transition..

In terms of the mission I think the best approach is for Tesla to be aggressive and make a big play for maximum market share.

Not only is that good financially, it motivates other car makers to be proactive and forces them to bring forward their plans..intense competition will also drive further innovation, result in better products and quickly weed out the under performers..

In some ways that is a good result for governments, good companies need less help, and good companies are worth helping..

I don't think governments will be too worried if Tesla takes 20% of the market... especially if Tesla is making cars in their country..