Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

My apologies to any who feel this is dastardly.... Off-topic, since I am unlikely to actually be able to keep a Cybertruck, any advice on what should I do with these 3 orders?

It's not dastardly, just stupid. Tesla will not let you sell your spot for a profit, at least not without general subterfuge and lying. If you're lucky and duplicitous you might make a few dollars, while denying legitimate reservation holders their turn. You really want to be that guy? Just cancel the reservations if you don't want them.

 

[Bet TSLA]

It almost has to take the stock price down, doesn't it? At some point between now and then the market will figure this out...

You're absolutely right! I figure it will take the stock price down from 780 to 740ish at some point. Sell!

 

[ggr]

In 2019 Q1, there were not enough demand, we discussed in details why it happened that way.
This Q1 is different. Q1 production capability has improved a lot from last year, yet this quarter's production is basically all sold out and we are still in January. There are almost 1 million Tesla cars on the road, so awareness is much better now. A Model 3 is not just better, it's way better than any other cars. A test drive will sell the car, it's still true.

Lots of Tesla shareholders now can buy Tesla cars like buying rotisserie chicken from Costco. I bet many people on this forum know what I am talking about. There are at least 500,000 Tesla shareholders. This wealth effect should not be ignored.

There are a lot of things that are different this Q1 than last Q1. Q1 2019:
. S/X were converting to Raven configuration, so production was down
. Model 3 production was still ramping up.
. Model 3 organic demand was still ramping up.
. Tesla said they were "stopping the wave" (but it appears we're back to doing it again...) so lots of vehicles in transit
. Still hadn't sorted out deliveries even in the US, Europe and China were a total mess
. Lot of spending on GF3 (I guess some spending on GF4 instead this quarter)
. (Edit) US and Denmark subsidies reducing.

I think Q1 might be down a bit Q/Q, but a lot better Y/Y.

 

[ggr]

Is Q1 production really sold out? Do we know for sure there is enough Model 3 demand for the entire quarter? I guess I missed that memo?

I think you did. New Model 3 deliveries are projected to be in Q2 everywhere you can order one.

 

[Artful Dodger]

 

[Cherry Wine]

I think you did. New Model 3 deliveries are projected to be in Q2 everywhere you can order one.

While a decent indicator, I am not sold on the website's estimates as a fully reliable metric, unfortunately. S/X orders have dropped from 8-10 weeks to 6-8 weeks sometime within the last week, for instance. I view it as a data point, in other words.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sounds great! Who should we acquire?

LMFAO!!!

Well, VWAG and TM, obviously!
*then delete them
Cheers!

 

[MartinAustin]

Elon said they are pretty happy with the energy content of the cells and the efficiency of the vehicles (meaning S&X). We are rapidly approaching a 400 mi range for the model S. Model S is in the 380's for range (website says 373 mi). It's been that way for a while. It is higher than what the website states as they haven't gotten around to updating EPA figure.

At the previous conference call he said the EPA figure was wrong on the website and it got bumped from 370 to 373 (and from 345 to 348). Same thing happened 3 months later! I guess they're more confident about Raven powertrain efficiency after lots of miles driven. (or... are initial Raven cars not getting this benefit? is there an actual improvement that has occurred since April 2019?)

 

[Thekiwi]

Did my ears deceive me, or did Elon say “Herky Jerky” on the call to describe the hard to forecast middle of a production s curve?

 

[Sancho]

Because most of us on this forum “get it” as it relates to Tesla and TSLA, it’s hard for us to appreciate just how vast was the number of market participants who until very recently considered TSLA an outright foolish investment.

Every day now thousands of new investors are waking up to the realization that Tesla is going to succeed, and then to the realization that the nature of this success will be unprecedentedly large.

So when does this SP rally end? The earlier of 1) when most stock market participants have woken up, and 2) when the SP exceeds reasonable current fair value.

We are still far away from (1). We all have our own notion of (2). Mine is now somewhere around $2000.

Not advice, and there will be dips along the way.

 

[Remus]

I don't believe him. I think it's obvious that Starlink will be used by Tesla vehicles eventually. They'll need universal connectivity for level 4 FSD for quite a while. There will be "driver centers" with Tesla people ready to take over in situations the vehicles can't deal with. Examples include such things as law enforcement wanting to talk to the driver, total obstruction of sensors rendering self-driving impossible, severe damage to the vehicle.

Laws (at least in some places) will require that action can be taken under such circumstances and Tesla will have to have some way of connecting to the vehicle. Starlink solves the problem and will be comparatively cheap for Tesla. You don't need lots of bandwidth, just a connection. And that means you can get away with a smaller antenna if you want.

Yes I agree but this should not be the priority for space X, as tons of customers waiting to get in on the service and willing to pay really big bucks. This includes the Pentagon, cruise ships, airlines, etc. I don't think space X would be able to satisfy this demand in a couple of years.

 

[Sparky4life]

Unpilot mentioned his two brothers that sold out $475: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Plus there were people chiming in at the low 300s through the low 500s saying they sold out and are waiting for cheaper.

It would be nice to hear if any of them bought back in. I know a rare few did after some debate.

my only TSLA sale was 20% of my holdings right before the Q3 ER with plans to buy back in “after the dip”. Of course, it shot up. I decided to buy back in immediately rather than waiting for the next dip. If I had waited, I’d still be waiting. No more selling for me. I’m clearly only smart enough to buy and hold.

 

[LJS22]

Just got done reading transcript from the earnings call. Some thoughts and feelings I got after reading between the lines.
- Elon has no plans of putting Tesla in “autopilot” he’s that kid in school that only functions when he’s working on something last minute. Tesla will continue to live on the edge because in some sick way that urgency to meet deadlines, deliver cars, build up production is a rush that makes everything work.
- this will continue to frustrate investors as we are nearing a time when it would seem so easy to relax, focus on what is making money and just keep putting out profitable quarters. However, that’s boring. Most of us invested in this because there is this belief that the company can change the world. I firmly believe only one man is capable of seeing that through so I’m willing to ride this roller coaster to the end.
- the last minute urgency Musk operates in is seemingly how he views our chance of beating global warming, it’s that sense of urgency that we all need to be part of. It’s unknown if we are early to adopting to renewables or late but regardless we should operate as if tomorrow is the deadline. (Might sound a bit dramatic but I like the symbolic nature of it)
- The battery production is driving him nuts. I think he repeated himself several times that Tesla can only go as fast as battery production moves. Questions about vans and semi led him basically say “look it would make no sense to start a project if we don’t have the essential part to it...semi uses a ton of packs”

Personally I’m equally excited and scared as hell hearing him talk about how fast they will be growing and how much money they will be spending, but this is the only way forward. My fear is people not understanding this, and not on board with the process. It’s been an incredible ride the last few months, but at some point we will run into the headwinds of growth. The best is ahead though, just sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

[Remus]

What I heard sounded an awful lot like @neroden was right. Tesla is just getting to the point where they can start doing the hard stuff. It may be a long time before we see even a good level 4 system. Elon is back to hoping and saying the problem is much harder than he thought. I continue to be disappointed with autonomy progress.

Of course there's no way to evaluate where things are at now until we get to see a firmware release that's meant for HW3 only. I look forward to that and I intend to be optimistic until proven that things are otherwise.

Ha! I was in the same camp with @neroden and still don't expect anything meaningful 3years out.

On the other hand some how Elon's back peddling give me hope.

 

[Fact Checking]

European trading opened half an hour ago (prices in Euros):

Around ~$640. I'd expect lots of short covering for the Euro TSLA shares as well.

More than 15,000 shares traded so far, which is very high level of trading for Frankfurt.

Edit: 24,000 shares traded now ...


edit: corrected volume

 

[Carl Raymond]

I see many people with their prognostications on what's going to happen next. Even bigger spike upwards. Brief and sharp pullback, followed by a new surge to yet another ATH. The typical retreat after a big move. ...

I don't have an opinion on short term movement in the shares.


I do have an opinion on what I see going on right now, the short version of which is that what I see is that we are now 3 months into a collective market realization that TSLA at $280-$380 was incorrectly valued. And much like the run in 2013, the market is now off seeking a new trading range that fairly values the company.

I've mentioned this idea off and on - I think of it as the market realizing the old trading range was "wrong", but not yet knowing what the correct trading range is. These things are always highly dependent on which points you choose to look at - there was a 6 month run from 3/13 through 9/13 that ran from the $30's to the $180 range. Then over the next 6 months, the stock fell back to the $130 range before continuing on to the $250 range, after which we had 3 years in the $180 - $280 range.

So I think I prefer the 1 year view, even with the big correction, as the amount of trading time needed to find the new trading range for the company.
TSLA Interactive Stock Chart | Tesla, Inc. Stock - Yahoo Finance

So whatever your trading strategy, my Not-An-Advice is that whatever you're doing, the larger macro view of TSLA is it's in a big upwards move right now that will be going on for months. And it's probably premature to be looking for the big 1/3rd correction (by analogy to 2013, it's premature by 3 months and ~$1000 worth of share price).


If we think that history repeats, then that 2013 move was from 20s/30s to 250 - that was a nearly 10x move in 12 months (with a 1/3rd pullback partway through the run, from 180 to 130). If that repeats, then we might be looking at $2,500 in the next 9 months.

Or maybe the company is so much bigger now, the magnitude of the share price change will be smaller.

Or maybe there's an even better money making story to be told today, both organically to the business, plus external factors that can influence the company share price (big short interest, S&P 500 inclusion, best single business to invest in for the renewable and sustainable economy, ..), so the move will be bigger.

I see no logical reason to draw two horizontal lines on a stock chart and call it “trading range”. The price represents market valuation of a company with compounding annual growth greater than 50%. It’s not static as a horizontal line would imply.

If you draw two upward sloping lines on a logarithmic stock price chart, fine, that’s at least a logical attempt to represent trading range.

 

[StealthP3D]

To be fair, it does feel like the last few months have been set up so that a series of really good pieces of news are released spaced out enough to continue an ongoing rally

I don't really see this. There is a TON of good news surrounding Tesla and what they are actually doing. I don't see any of the news as being "fake" or made up so I'm not sure how Tesla could keep us all informed about their happenings without releasing a series of good news pieces constantly.

Sometimes it's just best to accept the fact that there is a lot of good news created by Tesla.

 

[MartinAustin]

Battery Day, for me, will mostly concern the increase in Wh/yr to 1-2TWh/yr.

There will be higher charging wattage for Cybertruck. (this was mentioned at the reveal but he didn't want to say the kW number) There may also be some robustness stuff like range of operating temperatures and indication/expectation/demonstrability of "million mile" lifespan. All great for Semi but applicable to all platforms.

Increases in Gravimetric and Volumetric density? That is a question re: the new Roadster's diminutive nature. I don't like the idea of two packs one on top of the other.

Battery Day will occur before Q1 ER, so that guidance can be clearly discussed. (If Battery Day was after Q1 ER, the forward-looking guidance for 2020 would have to be obfuscated.)

$648 is amazing... I still can hardly believe it... for so long, $420 was just a shining beacon off in the future.

 

[Skryll]

I don't believe him. I think it's obvious that Starlink will be used by Tesla vehicles eventually. They'll need universal connectivity for level 4 FSD for quite a while. There will be "driver centers" with Tesla people ready to take over in situations the vehicles can't deal with. Examples include such things as law enforcement wanting to talk to the driver, total obstruction of sensors rendering self-driving impossible, severe damage to the vehicle.

Laws (at least in some places) will require that action can be taken under such circumstances and Tesla will have to have some way of connecting to the vehicle. Starlink solves the problem and will be comparatively cheap for Tesla. You don't need lots of bandwidth, just a connection. And that means you can get away with a smaller antenna if you want.

5G covers that much more effectively. Starlink is more likely to be at a supercharger providing local wifi to parked movie watchers.

 

[kengchang]

While a decent indicator, I am not sold on the website's estimates as a fully reliable metric, unfortunately. S/X orders have dropped from 8-10 weeks to 6-8 weeks sometime within the last week, for instance. I view it as a data point, in other words.

Er doh, there are literally only 8 weeks left before Q1 ends.