Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DragonWatch]

Who will blink first? Bears/Shorts or Bulls/Long?

No fair using my interpretation of life as MajorBS either.

My person view is that if Tesla does not succeed, neither will you/I

My color coding does not represent the philosophy of life either (red, yellow, green - humm, maybe it does)

 

[KarenRei]

I wanted to show first how the implied probabilities on a given date don't necessarily show a clear picture (i.e. overlapping long and short probabilities). Over time, it's even messier; I'm assuming this is because there are some very different beliefs held by people who trade weeklies, and as the expiry moves further out there may be more protective puts. Here's the implied probability curves generated by the options chain for the next 10 expiry dates:

View attachment 505513

That's exactly what I was looking for, and you're right, it's much stranger than I expected! Surely that strike-based noise represents a form of (exploitable) market mispricing, if accurate. There's no logical reason that the market should think that the mean value of the stock will be at $700 in late February, then $500 in early March, then $750 a week later, then down to $630....

 

[Zaxxon]

Me for the next six hours...

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Reiterate Sell, as we see outsize risk to Tesla executing on a chunky guide

Note that I have nothing to do with this

 

[Nocturnal]

I can't seem to find it, but wasn't there another Elon tweet this morning along the lines of "ca rs are under appreciated"?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I can't seem to find it, but wasn't there another Elon tweet this morning along the lines of "ca rs are under appreciated"?

Chairs. Which could be shares, or Denholm, or Model S/X seats, or nothing at all.

 

[Nocturnal]

Chairs. Which could be shares, or Denholm, or Model S/X seats, or nothing at all.

Yeah I thought there was the chair one, and the car one. Maybe it was another user riffing on it and I misread.

 

[JustMe]

Chairs. Which could be shares, or Denholm, or Model S/X seats, or nothing at all.

how about this —>

Cars
Having
Artificial
Intelligence
Revenue
Stream

 

[viridi]

Perma-bear and alleged market manipulator Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin reiterated his totally not surprising "Sell" rating for Tesla yesterday.

Before quoting from yesterday's piece, which on Wall Street is misunderstood to be an "Analyst report", but should in reality be filed under "Fiction, Entertainment", this is what Craig wrote about Tesla three short months ago:

'Craig Irwin downgraded Tesla to Sell from Neutral (with a price target of $249) after reviewing the company's 10-Q filing for the third quarter, which he said offers evidence that the company's margin performance is "unsustainable."'​

So after that $249 price target and 'unsustainable' Q3 performance he is now out with his Q4 opinion:

"It is well understood Tesla will report an impressive 4Q19 result after disclosure of 112k deliveries against 105k in production."

[ Hard to decipher random gibberish omitted. ]

"Reiterate Sell, as we see outsize risk to Tesla executing on a chunky guide."​

So he re-ran the numbers with what he now expects to be an "impressive 4Q19" and after a bearish downgrade to $249 in Q3 he now expects TSLA to reach a price target of ... $249:

Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin reiterated a Sell rating and $249 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).​

Total coincidence, the numbers are what they are!!

I'd also like to note that it is my firm belief and opinion that the only reason Craig Irwin of Roth Capital has not been indicted by the SEC for felony market manipulation in support of a short-and-distort scheme yet is because he is so bad at it.

The empirical data clearly backs-up how bad he is at what he does:

https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/craig-irwin

 

[Dan Detweiler]

how about this —>

Cars
Having
Artificial
Intelligence
Revenue
Stream

Ha! While unlikely, I like the way you think!

Dan

 

[Lessmog]

Also rumors of new seats coming for S (and maybe X too), maybe that's what he was hinting at. Or maybe they're getting into souped up electric wheelchairs... that would be great!

I wonder, what's @JohnnyEnglish 's take on this?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I can't seem to find it, but wasn't there another Elon tweet this morning along the lines of "ca rs are under appreciated"?

Something is wrong with Twitter. I can't find Elon's free Etherium offer either. Starting to panik now...

/s

 

[Fact Checking]

how about this —>

Cars
Having
Artificial
Intelligence
Revenue
Stream

So, Elon tweeted that "Chairs are underappreciated", and according to the Acronym Finder, CHAIR stands for one of these:

CHAIR: Committee for Humanitarian Assistance to Iranian Refugees (New York, NY)
CHAIR: Centre for Health and International Relations (UK)
CHAIR: Coronary Heart Attack Ireland Register
CHAIR: Construction Hazard Assessment Implication Review (safety; Australia)​

And since today is Tesla earnings day, Elon must clearly be referring to the Coronary Heart Attack Ireland Register.

Any of you guys from Ireland?

 

[JustMe]

..


So, according to the Acronym Finder, CHAIR stands for one of these:

CHAIR: Committee for Humanitarian Assistance to Iranian Refugees (New York, NY)
CHAIR: Centre for Health and International Relations (UK)
CHAIR: Coronary Heart Attack Ireland Register
CHAIR: Construction Hazard Assessment Implication Review (safety; Australia)​

And since today is Tesla earnings day, this clearly must refer to the Coronary Heart Attack Ireland Register.

Any of you guys from Ireland?

whale oil beef hooked! (Irish accent)

 

[SageBrush]

I took your numbers, and extrapolating based on a 20:1 sharing scheme came up with 0.6 MB/sec/$
That does sound really, really cheap

I should clarify a bit ...

I gather that a satellite is good for about 60 months before it bakes in the atmosphere so the SpaceX launch cost to offer 60*0.6 = 36 MB/sec is 1$

 

[ZsoZso]

I sense a very positive atmosphere of anticipation here on TMC regarding the ER.
Fundamentals looks good, delivery numbers were good. Financial modeling of various posters all look good.

However, when I look outside of TMC, the sentiment goes too far, into contrarian indicator territory!
E.g. whats up with WSJ and Bloomberg publishing positive articles about TSLA ?
Not only Jim Cramer flipped to bull, but even Bob Lutz making positive comment about Tesla & Musk on CNBC.
Feels like something is broken in the world, we entered the twilight zone.

My gut feeling is that something is wrong. My finger is itching to sell some trading shares in case there is a dip tomorrow.
Like there was so many times in the past after ER... But it makes no sense, the numbers look good. Why would it dip?

ps: I found the needed inspirational clip!

Spoiler: inspiration clip

 

[SageBrush]

I learned Cockney yesterday so now I understand Elon

Chairs and Tables
Tables rhyme with Fables

Elon was saying that
Fables are underappreciated.

 

[MartinAustin]

I sincerely hope this isn't me jumping to conclusions, but all of the individual S+X pages for inventory new cars and CPO cars over on the Tesla web site are... blank. This happened some time this morning as I was looking last night and things worked ok. Chrome and Edge browsers on my PC, and on my Android phone.

Model 3+Y are working much better... normally, even.

It's as if they are preparing some sort of changes to the S+X web pages.

 

[larmor]

Chairs. Which could be shares, or Denholm, or Model S/X seats, or nothing at all.

Probably needed a chair at bolsa chica site where spacex is testing pressurization of a tank outside. Chair(s) would help if had to stand or site outside for long periods of time...

 

[Mokuzai]

But it makes no sense, the number look good. Why would it dip?

Btw I'm thinking that it will not dip...but am prepared for it.