Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SageBrush]

Coronavirus is turning out to be quite mild, or even asymptomatic.

That is far from a full characterization. There is *always* a spectrum of disease severity; it is best to not focus on one edge or other other while ignoring the entire picture.

What is the full picture ?
I don't know, but somewhere between nasty and not as bad as feared.
I tried out my pathetic math skillz this morning and tried to estimate infection related mortality. It is an exercise in accounting for the delay from infection until death. I came up with 1 - 3%. FWIW (very little.)
Since it seems possible for huge numbers of infections in China, even 1% is a LOT of mortality.

 

[Pezpunk]

Much safer: don't mess with options, and just have an open sell order for your shares at $1000 just in case there's a moment of madness in the market.

i think you mean moment of clarity.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Having been a luker here for the last couple of months I just wanted to thank you all for providing great investment advice over that time. I just wished I had trusted you bunch more and bought a few more shares when they were at 230$. As a total newbie in trading, at first I planned on trying to time the market and using the volatility of TSLA to my advantage, however afer the foolish mistake of selling half of my portfolio right before the Cybertruck Unveil I rethought my strategy and I'm now firmly in the "buy and hold" camp. I even rebought my shares at a higer price over the last few weeks and I actually felt better about those purchases than back when it was cheaper - the looming bankwuptcy has now almost completely been removed from the realm of possibility. The way I see it, for a relatively young guy like me there are two possibilities if you have some money to invest:

1) If you believe in a future where humanity lives in accordance with nature, powered by regenerative energy and recycling, you should invest in TSLA, even if it might fall by 50% for a short time in the meantime. Long term there is only up, up, up.
2) If you don't believe in such a future, it is better not to invest your money at all, but to enjoy it while that is still possible.

Not advice.

Need to fear but I suspect most will not be founded. Look at flu in this country with a lot higher number of deaths. I took care of one of the first SARS case in US. The patient had atypical pneumonia and was a Chinese resident who told us of unknown pneumonia going on. CDC followed the case with us and we used TB type precautions to prevent spread. To our knowledge no hospital staff became clinically ill. The patient survived. The hospital was an 80 bed community hospital which by coincidence survived possible Ebola patient. Hazelton labs had outbreak of Ebola in animalmprimatrs and a handler was admitted to our 4 bed ICU with chest pain. CDC knew what was going on in real time but to prevent a panic didn’t inform anyone at the hospital of the situation. He did test positive for the virus but it had mutated to a form not causing disease in humans.

 

[AquaMan]

Crystal ball is starting to work.....all sign's point to GREEN today.

And even greener after the announcement after market close tomorrow.

 

[Chickenlittle]

@Chickenlittle
Holy moly,
You visited Hazelton Reston?
Visited there in early 80’s working on medical equipment.
Nice Japanese lace maple out front.
Not sure if that lab building had been demolished yet.
You at Reston hospital?

Practiced at Reston and Loudoun. Both cases I mentioned were at loudon hosp. Drive by it but nothing done with property entrance blocked by huge tree down blocking the entrance

 

[winfield100]

Practiced at Reston and Loudoun. Both cases I mentioned were at loudon hosp. Drive by it but nothing done with property entrance blocked by huge tree down blocking the entrance

@Chickenlittle
never visited Loudon. field med equip repair
visited Winchester hosp during renovation, just as ceiling collapsed due to water leak in lab, drenched a lot of expensive equipment, missed me by about 10-15 seconds. (beckman stuff)

 

[avoigt]

Ihor: "If you fully paid for your stock and are not using margin to buy your shares then your broker cannot touch (rehypothicate) and lend your shares."

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

 

[SageBrush]

Elon's Twitter feed is a wonderful exception but I otherwise find Twitter to be a cesspool of banality, stupidity and misinformation that I avoid like the plague.
However, if a nice fraction of a short burn comes my way I am going to (for the first and probably last) tweet a thanks to TSLAQ. Seems the least I can do in pursuit of civility.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I will go out on the limb: The biggest effect on the earning call will be not numbers, but one single statement something like this: "Our cost of producing a car is lower than cars of German premium manufacturers in the same class. And our cost will keep dropping substantially"

What I would love to hear: “We are sold out of Q1 inventory.”

 

[dl003]

I have a question: what happens to ITM call spreads if you don't close them? Does the broker just credit your account the spread?

 

[SageBrush]

Ihor: "If you fully paid for your stock and are not using margin to buy your shares then your broker cannot touch (rehypothicate) and lend your shares."

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

That is interesting. Perhaps the small print gives some brokerages rights. How else do brokerages that do not charge fees for trades and account servicing make money ?

I just recently opened an IB account and saw that they let me opt-in to lending stock holdings in return for a 0.15% annual return -- about 50% of the proceeds from a garden variety stock loan.

 

[FrankSG]

That is interesting. Perhaps the small print gives some brokerages rights. How else do brokerages that do not charge fees for trades and account servicing make money ?

I just recently opened an IB account and saw that they let me opt-in to lending stock holdings in return for a 0.15% annual return -- about 50% of the proceeds from a garden variety stock loan.

I believe IB will charge you a small <= $20 account maintenance fee, if your fees don't add up to that in a certain month.

They also make money from selling market information subscriptions.

 

[avoigt]

That is interesting. Perhaps the small print gives some brokerages rights. How else do brokerages that do not charge fees for trades and account servicing make money ?

I just recently opened an IB account and saw that they let me opt-in to lending stock holdings in return for a 0.15% annual return -- about 50% of the proceeds from a garden variety stock loan.

Compared to what the stock will do to all investors if the amount of shares is more limited, gaining 0.15% p.a. is frankly said a laughable compensation.

As we learned from the past the amount of shares free to short seem to be since a longer period high and there is not shortage visible. Greed may hinder stock holders to leave that 0.15% on the table ....

Personally I made sure my shares cannot be lent out.

 

[Todd Burch]

Jumpin' up quick. Everyone realizes the bargain train's leaving before the conference call.

 

[dww12]

The actual price will be easy enough to figure out. Just try a different price in a few different locations and see what numbers you get.

Also although a higher cost might bring in more even with a lower percentage that higher cost might also dissuade people to from buying the car in the first place if it gets to high.

I might buy a 40k car and subscribe for $50 a month. But I might not buy the same car if the price was then $150/month.

Again, should be easy to find the sweet spot.

If FSD happens soon and Tesla is the only one with it only Tesla millionaires will still own the car and use FSD only for themself. All new supply and all used supply will be bought by RT networks using the cars 24/7. Nobody making $70k/yr that just stretched their budget to afford a Tesla is going to keep it when they can sell it for $150k.

 

[Rammstein]

Price at action today is BF AF to me. I hate acronyms btw. This will age well.

Called it!

 

[StealthP3D]

Latest official short interest figures for TSLA have been released: Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Short Interest

24,954,265 shares were held short as of 1/15 settlement. This reflects a change of -1,304,887 shares since the last reporting period.

Once again, Ihor Dusaniwsky's figures were horrifically inaccurate during this period.

On 1/14, he stated there were 26.54 mm shares shorted: Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

On 1/13, he stated there were 26.74 mm shares shorted: Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

If you took Ihor's figures at face value, you would believe that short interest had INCREASED slightly, rather than decreased moderately during this reporting period.

I can guess the short interest figures more accurately than Ihor can figure them using his "proprietary" techniques! I believe his numbers are intended to confuse and deceive, to the benefit of his clients, short-sellers.

 

[replicant]

My European bank ****ed things up: they forgot to ask me to prove I'm not a US person (for tax purpose, although I've always been a European resident to them for more than a decade. So they've blocked me from buying/selling US stocks since the end of last week, because they haven't completed the certification process.

I've been trying to purchase a nice lot of shares for days, to no avail. It looks like I'll be ban for 2 more days… after the earnings report. I'm quite mad.

Have anyone else face the same situation. Any suggestion to buy stocks from Europe before the earnings (without too much delay for opening an account)?

 

[Chickenlittle]

I have a question: what happens to ITM call spreads if you don't close them? Does the broker just credit your account the spread?

Each call treated separately. In the money call gets you shares if cash in account or money if not available cash or margin. Out of money options expire

 

[Chickenlittle]

My European bank ****ed things up: they forgot to ask me to prove I'm not a US person (for tax purpose, although I've always been a European resident to them for more than a decade. So they've blocked me from buying/selling US stocks since the end of last week, because they haven't completed the certification process.

I've been trying to purchase a nice lot of shares for days, to no avail. It looks like I'll be ban for 2 more days… after the earnings report. I'm quite mad.

Have anyone else face the same situation. Any suggestion to buy stocks from Europe before the earnings (without too much delay for opening an account)?

Don’t be angry yet. Wait for the results before might have saved you money, never mind agree get angry now