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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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OMG WOW... “Tesla is done”, “All the manufacturers have caught up”, “Natural gas vehicles are the future”, “Everyone likes gasoline engines, big engines”
This is disgusting, these people are absolutely clueless and there’s definitely no industry bias here...

Completely agree, everyone must listen from 56 minutes on, great find.

At least Trump is asking some reasonable questions for example, why is the stock high if they are done. Answer is because the market, which is comprised of a lot of experts with skin in the game, believes differently than this group of hobby analysts.
 
Agree that faster will be needed to scale, however, it might be fair to compare installation time of conventional asphalt roof, along with installation of a new conventional rooftop solar system, with the associated hardware, electrical permits and inspections.

It’s also not clear how much additional work was involved with replacing the vents, pipes, and flashing, but if it wasn’t as bad as he makes it sound, standard crews can knock that out pretty quickly too.

My wife watched the video, and said, “Buy it.” :)
Rb48888. You are correct, and if I could retract my last post #128948 I would. Mods? I should have compared roof membrane + solar with the Tesla glass roof, and of course that would be much longer than one day to install, not to mention conventional roofs and solar panels are not nearly as attractive or have the longevity or greater energy output of Tesla glass roof.
 
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Referencing 2019 sales when 2019 sales happened only during the last few weeks of 2019 is Antonian.

The original Porsche executive quoting 50% conquest was customers who put down a $2500 deposit as opposed to the much greater number of people that made inquiries. This was before first deliveries.

Interesting, the article said nothing about the 50% being related to reservation holders. I took
Half of the people buying the Porsche Taycan have never owned a Porsche.
To mean actual purchases. Versus:
“The main competitor in the outside world who is currently engaging with the Taycan is from Tesla,” Zellmer says, referencing data the company has compiled from consumer deposits for the car. “We respect that brand.
which referred to reservations.

50% of the 30,000 reservations is a more interesting number. Do you have a source for it? I can't find anything giving reservation distribution after this article from Jan 24,2019
The company has said the majority of its reservation holders are current Tesla owners, and that many have never owned a Porsche before.

The 30k mark happened in July
July 29, 2019
Porsche has secured 30,000 deposits for the Taycan more than a month before the German automaker will unveil the all-electric sports cars, numbers that suggest there’s enough demand to support the company’s plans to produce 40,000 units in its first year.
But reservations holders are not necessarily buyers:
Dec 11, 2019
According to Germany’s Handelsblatt, Taycan reservations required a downpayment of 2,500 euros. Some 10,000 of the 30,000 individuals who dropped cash to hold the model have already placed a firm order to buy a Taycan.
Is the Bloomberg just a rehashed combining of those separate data points (early distribution and 30k mid year reservation count)? Or an I missing a better recent reservation/ order breakdown?

Edit: the interview was the 24th, but the headline is
Half of Taycan Buyers Are New to the Brand, Says Porsche CEO
But only 130 have been delivered in the United States so far.
Anyway, not trying to throw any shade on them.
 
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I don't know why people on this forum keep giving VW undue credit.
...
A bigger question would be what happens to Toyota. Now they are worth talking about, massive compared to VW or GM or other traditional companies.
...
Seriously, why are some here obsessed with VW?

I do not like VW either, they deserve to go bankrupt after what they pulled on the world.
However, you have to acknowledge, VW has the only executives willing to admit, that BEVs are the immediate future of the industry. Furthermore, Diess acknowledges Tesla's lead and pledges to work hard to catch up with Tesla. Whether they will manage to do that or not is debatable, but at least they are trying. They are willing to spend $$$ on the transition and have plans to produce an entire fleet of BEVs.

In contrast, what are the other manufacturers say ? Toyota, BMW, Subaru all have their heads buried deep in the sand and talk about fool cells, diesel and mild hybrids dominating 10 years down the road. Pathetic, laughable perspectives. Daimler / Mercedes blaming battery shortages for their failure to sell their EQC which is pathetic in range & efficiency compared to the 8 year-ago Model S. Nissan had a good run with their short range Leaf but seems to have no viable plans to move forward and according to Ghosn have a few years of life support left before bankruptcy. FCA is paying Tesla to get them through EU regulations, because they got nothing to sell in terms of BEVs, thats a short term life support, not a plan for survival. GM and Ford have only compliance volume plays with the Bolt and the Mach-E, don't see them scaling up to "serious" level of volumes.
 
There is another angle of the virus scare that directly impacts Tesla. I have heard rumors that traveling to/from Shanghai has been halted to prevent spreading of the virus. If those rumors are true, that can prevent/delay shipments of parts and raw materials to reach GF3 and also disrupt deliveries of completed vehicles from the factory.
Air Canada was still selling tickets from Pearson to Shanghai 7 hrs ago. Hubei (the center of the outbreak) is more than 1,000 km from Shanghai. Do you have any sources for your "scare", or was this just some rando tweet.

Fight fear with facts.
 
Air Canada was still selling tickets from Pearson to Shanghai 7 hrs ago. Hubei (the center of the outbreak) is more than 1,000 km from Shanghai. Do you have any sources for your "scare", or was this just some rando tweet.

Fight fear with facts.

I heard it from a colleague of mine who is Chinese with friends and family back in China, he got the information from them. I can't confirm or verify the validity of the claim, that's why I said "rumors".

ps: Air Canada selling tickets proves nothing. From my personal experience, they can't even tell that their own plane due to take off in 1/2 hour is going to be delayed 4 hours or even cancelled (still claim "on-time" right at the gate information screen). They have wasted days of my travel time 2 occasions in just the past month.
 
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  • Informative
Reactions: Artful Dodger
There is another angle of the virus scare that directly impacts Tesla. I have heard rumors that traveling to/from Shanghai has been halted to prevent spreading of the virus. If those rumors are true, that can prevent/delay shipments of parts and raw materials to reach GF3 and also disrupt deliveries of completed vehicles from the factory.
Nope
2B58CBF0-CC1C-4A3B-9F70-D2372F299A5D.png
 
Rudy Pal Lev Parnas Releases Audio of Trump Calling for Ukraine Ambassador’s Firing

From about 56 min they talk about EVs/auto industry... worth listening.
Didn’t realize Trump was such a big Elon fan haha he said “their stock is high” “hes smart” “so you would bet against him?” Then I heard someone say “he’s a great salesman!” “He’s done..cash flow bad” “he’s a smart guy...but really socially awkward” “Other auto companies caught up already”
 
Didn’t realize Trump was such a big Elon fan haha he said “their stock is high” “hes smart” “so you would bet against him?” Then I heard someone say “he’s a great salesman!” “He’s done..cash flow bad” “he’s a smart guy...but really socially awkward” “Other auto companies caught up already”
Trump outed himself as a big Elon fan just recently during a bizarre interview at this year's Davos summit.

Our President doesn't come off as a particularly intelligent individual, but at least he has given a warning to.... Deleted by Mod
 
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Herbert Diess seems to be a very smart man, but he heads a company which can't turn on a dime and he knows it. But unlike every other auto company CEO he seems to be sounding the alarm and is determined to make sure his company survives through 2030, 2040, 2050, and beyond. Many other auto companies are not likely to pass these decade milestones intact, so I wish him good luck. Many have already noted that Tesla can't supply the entire world's demand for automobiles, we need at least some of the other companies to survive, transition to EV, and supply automobiles for generations to come.

This is why I love the new “cyber” design language of Tesla. I’ve seen renderings of current Tesla vehicles reworked with the cyber aesthetic. They look fantastic and dramatically different than the current lineup. If the plan is to have a completely separate cyber line of Teslas, the company significantly broadens its appeal and increases addressable market/buyer pool. Tesla may not be able to supply every EV to the world, but the lineup expansion and brand cachet built on technological superiority will damn well ensure its continued explosive growth and domination of the only vehicle segment that matters in the next 5-10 years, EVs.

As another weekend aside, I love Dave T’s videos. Thank you so much for sharing your insights Dave! I have built my investment thesis on my own personal observations of energy trends in conjunction with two books, “The Innovator’s Dilemma” and “The Gorilla Game.” Both are great reads and Tesla fits both models. And Dave T's ruminations reinforce what I've been thinking and the theories espoused in these two seminal works.

While I’m expressing gratitude, so many here have provided invaluable information, insights and much needed moments of mirth that have allowed most of us to HODL through the FUD turbulence. Thanks to FC, Ms. Iceland, K Cat, JBC, AD and StealthP3D to name but a few.

Tesla is on the launchpad and cleared for take off and I’m so happy I’m strapped in with a window seat. The only question is whether this flight will settle into a low earth orbit or go full warp. I’m betting on the latter.


2D32C9CE-74FF-484E-BD00-84C20FE2BC69.jpeg
 
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Trump outed himself as a big Elon fan just recently during a bizarre interview at this year's Davos summit.

Our President doesn't come off as a particularly intelligent individual, but at least he has given a warning to Putin and bin Salman not to have Elon assassinated or something.
Trump secret recording reminds me of this scene from a documentary that will be made in the "not so far future" o_O I've obtained a scene from said documentary :rolleyes:
 
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Can someone with hardware knowledge speculate if Tesla can use the he 2.0 and 2.5 computers they take out as additionally processing power in their development of FSD. I doubt that they are running this stuff on aws or gcloud. This seems like the kind of tech that stays on prem.

I would be surprised if the removed hardware was worth more than a couple of bucks. Maybe someone would scavenge the memory chips but probably not. Technology marches on.
 
There is another angle of the virus scare that directly impacts Tesla. I have heard rumors that traveling to/from Shanghai has been halted to prevent spreading of the virus. If those rumors are true, that can prevent/delay shipments of parts and raw materials to reach GF3 and also disrupt deliveries of completed vehicles from the factory.
When they talk about restricting travel in/out of a city to contain epidemic, they usually mean passenger buses and trains, not shipping trucks.
Because if you stop shipments into a city, people would starve in a week, obviously.

If they ever going to implement travel restrictions it would be more likely to be mandatory “house quarantine”, for two weeks after arrival before going out to the street or report to work.

Sure if that happens it could impact workers who came back from hometown after spring festival, but it would very unlikely impact Tesla, because GF3 is ~50km from the edge of downtown, and such a mesure would likely only apply to downtown area.

But, I personally would welcome such a move, which would end this faster.

If the city doesn’t implement it, it actually might be a good idea for the factory to implement it, putting everyone who just arrived from out of town into dorm room quarantine for a week and only allow them to report to the factory if they don’t develop any symptoms after.
 
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If he were completely honest, he would say, “Taking our present position as a starting point, we have about a snowball‘s chance in hell of catching Tesla.“

VW probably doesn't need to catch Tesla in the near-term to survive. I actually think they have a pretty good chance of hanging in there long enough to be a major player, Telsa's future main competitor. Tesla has a proven ability to scale unbelievably quickly but even that won't be enough to meet the demand for serious EV's.

We need other players putting out desirable EV's.