Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Rammstein]

This price action actually looks bullish to me.

This aged well.

 

[ZeApelido]

I have not sold a TSLA share since...

[checks order history]

never.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Bitter much?

My post was a prediction that Elon's dinosaur tweet would ensure a strong day on Tuesday (today).

So I'm not really following you.

You seem to do this all day every day. Harassing anyone with a slightly negative angle?

I'm no mod here but every page of this thing has you ripping into someone. Ease up, it's not a war.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Mitsubishi Probed in Germany on Diesel Cheating Allegations

[...] police and prosecutors began investigating 10 sites across Germany, Nadja Niesen, a spokeswoman for Frankfurt prosecutors, wrote in an emailed statement. Three of the locations raided belong to auto parts supplier Continental AG, which is a witness in the probe and is cooperating fully, according to an emailed Continental statement.

“There’s suspicion that the engines were equipped with a defeat device set up to meet emissions limits during testing but not in real driving conditions,” Niesen said. “The use of such a device is prohibited under EU law.”

Tatsuo Yoshida, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, said that a possible recall could involve as many as 400,000 vehicles and cost as much as 30 billion to 40 billion yen ($273 million to $364 million), including legal issues. [...]​

Ok, here's something I've been wondering for years but always been to lazy to look up. Anyone have a short explanation so I don't have to?

If VW cheated by actually having something like 30x the allowed limits (or whatever it was, like I said long time ago now). How could ANY other company with diesel cars have had any chance whatsoever of being legally within the allowed limits? Seems extremely unlikely that VW could be 30x worse than all the others.

To this day I'm still surprised that not every diesel manufacturer has been caught.

 

[copyhacker]

I bought 2 shares @420 out of a sense of camaraderie, little did I think at the time that was a buy point I'd be pining for now!

I told a couple of people I bought a share at $420.69 and took some ribbing for buying high. Who’s laughing now, huh?

Spoiler

Not me—I wish I’d bought more than one.

 

[Buckminster]

Jaguar I-Pace to join nationwide NHS fleet | Autocar
NHS leasing 700 I-paces. To be paid for by their employees.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

$100B already on the Reuters app front page. Gonna be a wild week!

 

[M3Rider]

Third row twitter feed is pretty interesting this past week, especially if we assume they have the good oil having recently sat down with Elon.

Today they are pushing the DBE angle.

Twitter

Recently they have been pushing FSD (feature complete) and Model Y as imminent. I guess we learn on 29 Jan how much faith to place on third row retweets.

It's obvious the twitter is mostly if not fully authored by Omar Qazi. He's a superbull and at times goes over the top stating some future possible sci-fi scenarios as a done deal. You need to realize this and scale back expectations some. He's doing a superior job breaking down some misconceptions and challenging the public's perception of what's possible, but the reality will be somewhat of a middle ground or more of Elon's time schedule compared to what Omar claims.

 

[Buckminster]

$100B already on the Reuters app front page. Gonna be a wild week!

Tesla crosses $100 billion stock market valuation in extended trading

 

[dc_h]

To clarify, I'm not talking about storing Model Ys. But I'm talking about what's the planned annual capacity of Model Y production at Fremont, and is it being rolled out in stages?

Ask ‪@elonmusk , but according to Carsonnight the limit has been batteries (and likely painting). If paintshop 2 is done and new Grohmann systems are coming online, they would be on track to build up to 15,000 battery packs and in theory twice as many cars as they can today. There are likely other limits on the assembly lines, but it should be some number of S+X+3+Y > 10,000 per week. If they are building pack capacity up to 15,000, they must expect to build at least 12,000 at Fremont. Excess packs may go to China until that is scaling up more. Does Troy have estimates of total model PY orders? Would the expected take rate be about 50%, or higher as some 3 owners may trade in and up?

It seems Einhorn watched his TSLA Puts turned to zero (or near zero). He said they no longer have a significant position on TSLA.

We need a new hysterically funny button.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla crosses $100 billion stock market valuation in extended trading

Fun Facts on GM's share price:

• Nov 19, 2010: $34.26
  
• Jan 21, 2020: $34.99

See? Progress*. Market Cap? Now less than $50B.

Cheers!

* at least they're no longer bankrupt

 

[M3Rider]

Bitter much?

My post was a prediction that Elon's dinosaur tweet would ensure a strong day on Tuesday (today).

So I'm not really following you.

Elon is not really talking share price most of time.
His focus is on the bigger picture.

If you're implying that everyone would misunderstand Elon's tweet as having to do with SP, there is a chance you're right.

And FYI, I have no reason to be bitter, I'm 100% in Tesla(compared to 35%) and have not sold a single share or call lately.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I told a couple of people I bought a share at $420.69 and took some ribbing for buying high. Who’s laughing now, huh?

Spoiler

Not me—I wish I’d bought more than one.

Yes, you can get 3 shares now for the price of 4 then.

Question is, how many shorts will cover after the sale price moves up to 2 shares for 4? $840 sounds about right by S&P 500 time... after that those shares gonna get spendy as the real whales move in to feed.

Cheers!

 

[SMAlset]

Keep in mind, all, that the scuttlebutt has the Michigan settlement due to be officially announced tomorrow. Today's articles were all short on facts and sourced anonymously.

When the 'real' news hits, we could see a positive reaction.

This news report from NBC WILX10 in Michigan had the most info that I could find: Tesla can sell vehicles in Michigan under legal settlement

Sounds like not only sell but service. What's the deal with having to register out of state first? I know some other states are like that too.

A Tesla subsidiary selling and servicing cars, different.

 

[Tim S]

Third row twitter feed is pretty interesting this past week, especially if we assume they have the good oil having recently sat down with Elon.

Today they are pushing the DBE angle.

Twitter

Recently they have been pushing FSD (feature complete) and Model Y as imminent. I guess we learn on 29 Jan how much faith to place on third row retweets.

Wow! if true (tweet from Third Row Tesla) ...
"The Tesla Dry Battery will change everything. Much higher energy density means a much higher range with the same size pack. The battery lifespan doubles –– you'll probbaly never need to replace it. 16x production capacity at 20% lower cost. It scales to millions."

 

[jhm]

Always read the footnotes...

"We have omitted an undisclosed short. Also of note is that Tesla is not included. While we maintain a negative view of the company, our Tesla exposure, which has been mostly expressed through put options, was not large enough to qualify for this list at December 31, 2019. One difference between a short cash equity position and a long put option strategy is that in the put strategy, when the stock price moves against us, our exposure becomes smaller."

Sure, it's small now. Shrinkage!

 

[MC3OZ]

Wow! if true (tweet from Third Row Tesla) ...
"The Tesla Dry Battery will change everything. Much higher energy density means a much higher range with the same size pack. The battery lifespan doubles –– you'll probbaly never need to replace it. 16x production capacity at 20% lower cost. It scales to millions."

Elon strongly implied they are using DBE and we will find out more on Battery Investor day, beyond that it is merely speculation..
But Tesla is around something like 250 Wh//kg now.... Maxwell promises something like > 300 Wh/kg, with a possible path to 500 Wh/kg.
So the best case scenario is a doubling on energy density...
I'm expecting faster ramp up of pack production with lower Capex...
But the Investor Day isn't far away, we will not need to wait long for the actual details. and they may or may not be as good as the bullish statement above, but we can safely say "they are worth talking about"...

 

[BornToFly]

Wow! if true (tweet from Third Row Tesla) ...
"The Tesla Dry Battery will change everything. Much higher energy density means a much higher range with the same size pack. The battery lifespan doubles –– you'll probbaly never need to replace it. 16x production capacity at 20% lower cost. It scales to millions."

500+ mile range on Cybertruck explained!

 

[elasalle]

Not sure if you all already consumed this

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Infigen Energy’s Lake Bonney storage system, equipped with a 25 megawatt Tesla battery, is in the final stages of testing and close to full commercial operations, the state’s energy minister Dan van Holst Pellekaan said in a statement following a visit to the site, which includes an existing 278.5 megawatt wind farm. Infigen said in November the battery started operating at full capacity Nov. 29

 

[MP3Mike]

Wow! if true (tweet from Third Row Tesla) ...
"The Tesla Dry Battery will change everything. Much higher energy density means a much higher range with the same size pack. The battery lifespan doubles –– you'll probbaly never need to replace it. 16x production capacity at 20% lower cost. It scales to millions."

Those numbers are all from a Maxwell PowerPoint presentation when they were trying to find a partner for their DBE technology. Note that the 16x capacity and 20% lower costs only apply to the electrode portion of production not the entire cell manufacturing capacity/costs. What portion of the capacity/cost does the electrode make up? I don't know.