Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrankSG]

• • M3: 7k/wk * 50 wks = 400k
  • MY: 7k/wk * 50 wks = 400k

Hmm, I don't think that math checks out.

 

[JustMe]

Exactly, or more specifically extrapolations assuming exponential growth, plus some other things such as that the blue line will be tapering off in 2025 instead of some other date say, say 2020, or maybe 2030. Below are some other possible exponential extrapolations. Someone extrapolating in 2014 would have predicted we'd be approaching 10M cars today (red line, based on 2014+2014 sales) Remember, on a log scale like this, each division is 10 times difference.
View attachment 499158

Ha ha sure. But going by Tesla’s past 7 years of history, the least likely extrapolation would be linear growth. Which is what analysts usually expect. EVEN when they can see very recent exponential growth.

Below is my favorite example of exactly this. Each year the International Energy Agency forecasts future changes in energy generation and demand. Each year they assume slow linear growth of solar energy capacity additions. Each year they've been spectacularly wrong:

It took Tesla 8 years to scale up from to a rate of building and delivering 10,000 to 500,000 cars per year. Tesla will very likely double that to one million cars per year in about two years. I think it's an easier path from 1 million to 10 million than from 10,000 to 1 million.

 

[sparcs]

Is anyone expecting Q4 2019 earnings report a little earlier? like the week of the 20th to 24th? or earlier in the week starting the 27th?

The last Q4 2018 earnings call was when Deepak was still there. It seems like Zachary Kirkhorn has been steadily chipping away and making them earlier and earlier as least based on the first three quarters of 2019 when he has been in charge.

 

[dc_h]

Is anyone expecting Q4 2019 earnings report a little earlier? like the week of the 20th to 24th? or earlier in the week starting the 27th?

The last Q4 2018 earnings call was when Deepak was still there. It seems like Zachary Kirkhorn has been steadily chipping away and making them earlier and earlier as least based on the first three quarters of 2019 when he has been in charge.

Full year earnings. I’d guess it will be early February.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sounds pretty optimistic, but hope you’re right.
Re Fremont, I’m not sure how much more capacity they can manage. They said logistics starts getting tough to get trucks in and out fast enough to reload supplies and get out the cars. Love to see Boring company provide more 3D logistics, but not so sure.

Yes, logistics is key. Personally, I look forward to the day when the newly finished car can 'FSD' itself onto a waiting semi-trailer, which the drives away as part of an 3 truck autonomous platoon (ya gotta beat rail on those shipping $$$ ya kno').

Elon thinks ultimately Fremont can produce 1 Million cars per year. I think they get there with robotics and stainless steel (CTs).

Tesla's Fremont factory could manufacture up to 1 million vehicles per year, says Musk - Electrek | May 5, 2016

Cheers!

 

[AudubonB]

A big thank you to @The Accountant for the detailed explanation as to how, in a responsive organization, a CFO can exercise control over the upstream processes and doesn't just manage the downstream data.

And now, Mod ON:

I am going to emplace a small, controlled thread in the Sticky section "Exploring Possibility of an Investment Roundtable Conference in Alaska". I have it on good authority that Lord Vetinari will be channeling his sternest Charles Dance with respect to any chit-chat found there.

I'll port over to that the responses that have been given here.

 

[willow_hiller]

At least two HW2.0 Model X drivers are reporting seeing a $1,000 discount on FSD

I'm getting some well deserved disagrees for my rampant speculation in the post above, but the count of users reporting a discount is now up to 4. I made a thread in the Model X forum to discuss it more, since I'd like to figure out why some people are seeing different prices. Mysterious FSD discount for some Model X owners

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hmm, I don't think that math checks out.

Checked. Its four.

 

[dhrivnak]

I'll be at the next one after the Supercharger Network reaches you. The Trans-Canada route was built out in <6 mths, plus I think the Yellowhead route will be next covering from Saskatoon, SK thru Jasper, AB to the coast at Prince Rupert? Then its a ferry to AK.

Elon also did say they plan Supercharger coverage for the Alaska Highway. Personally, I want my 1st trip to Alaska to be in a Tri-motor Cybertruck. I hear there's some nice Lodges up there...

Cheer!

But it was on the coming this year for 2 1/2 years before they started.

 

[EVNow]

Blast from the past:

just reviewed an excel model from 2012 with projections from Tesla execs (Elon, Deepak) showed the following predictions:

2017 total production 200,000
2018 total production 400,000
2019 total production 600,000

for a seven year educated guess, I’d say they beat the sh*t outta any analysis provided at the time! That’s as far out as this one went but 2020 is gonna blow past those #s and again we ain’t even talkin bout Tesla Energy or FSD!

Can’t wait for this year!

Fire Away!
“It’s the batteries, stupid!”

So, they have about a year's delay.

 

[EVNow]

Is anyone expecting Q4 2019 earnings report a little earlier? like the week of the 20th to 24th? or earlier in the week starting the 27th?

The last Q4 2018 earnings call was when Deepak was still there. It seems like Zachary Kirkhorn has been steadily chipping away and making them earlier and earlier as least based on the first three quarters of 2019 when he has been in charge.

I've been wondering about this too. I was thinking it would be on 22nd - but could be 29th. I doubt they will push to Feb.

 

[MC3OZ]

Sounds pretty optimistic, but hope you’re right.
Re Fremont, I’m not sure how much more capacity they can manage. They said logistics starts getting tough to get trucks in and out fast enough to reload supplies and get out the cars. Love to see Boring company provide more 3D logistics, but not so sure.

I assume the development applications referencing the North and South paint shops mean 2 paint shops are operating, which I take as a proxy for more cars per week.

Like you, it has occurred to me that a Boring Company tunnel or 2 in and out of Fremont might be a good addition... perhaps the cost of funnelling is currently too high...

They will hit a limit when it is easier to start with a new factory elsewhere in the US.

 

[Artful Dodger]

But it was on the coming this year for 2 1/2 years before they started.

And if the Model 3 ramp had failed, it would not be coming at all.

 

[The Accountant]

Is anyone expecting Q4 2019 earnings report a little earlier? like the week of the 20th to 24th? or earlier in the week starting the 27th?

The last Q4 2018 earnings call was when Deepak was still there. It seems like Zachary Kirkhorn has been steadily chipping away and making them earlier and earlier as least based on the first three quarters of 2019 when he has been in charge.

I hope Earnings are out earlier too...but for the ER to be published earlier, not only does Zachary have to get better at closing the books, the auditors (PwC) have to improve their audit process.

Last year, the Q4 earnings were released on Jan 30 and the 10K issued on Feb 19.
The PwC Audit Report is dated Feb 19th, but the Jan 30th Earnings press release was signed off by PwC as well.
PwC substantially completed the audit last year by Jan 30th (allowing the earnings announcement). From there until Feb 19, PwC audited the "Notes to the Financial Statements" and the rest of the 400 page 10K Annual Report.
So, to get earnings out by Jan 20-24, PwC has to get there act together as well.
I think the best we can expect is Jan 24th but Jan 27-29 is likely.

 

[gene]

Quasi-serious question: Were I to set aside a few days this summer at our Lodge to host such a gathering, any show of hands of who to some probability of reality would like to attend and could make the trip? If you ever have wanted to get to Alaska (again, for some of you), maybe this could create the right incentive. So far, the only member we've hosted has been @gene.
Time's short here, as our book fills fast and we've precious few multi-day blocks where we've good availability remaining.

PS: Very nice post about a very nice person.

I would absolutely love to make such a visit, but I kinda' got roped into a cross country drive with wife and child from here in California to NYC. Not my cup of tea. I have done the drive to Alaska and Canada's arctic via the Dempster all the way to Tuktoyaktuk several times. LOVE IT! Not yet have I made that drive to the arctic in a Tesla, though an 84 year old fellow from Orange County has just last summer.

I can recommend Audubon's cabins. Wonderful location. Late in the evening, nearby I was able to watch beavers building their dam. There is plenty of grizzlies and moose around as well. Audie serves great meals as well.

 

[sundaymorning]

Elon just tweeted that feature-complete FSD will be released soon.

Buff Mage on Twitter

soon = I dunno 2 years?
Tesla time.

 

[FrankSG]

Update on China's delivery estimates:

• MiC M3 SR+ is still listed as Q1 2020
• M3 LR is Q2 2020
• M3 P is also Q2 2020

I don't know if these were updated recently, but apparently you can no longer order a US made Model 3 in China and have it delivered before the end of Q1.

I'm kind of surprised by and slightly skeptical about the Q1 2020 delivery estimate of the MiC M3. It would either imply that the reports of daily order rates of 1000 vehicles are way overblown, Giga 3 will be able to produce way more vehicles this quarter than any of us are expecting, or Tesla has simply not updated the page yet.

 

[StealthP3D]

The very best proof that Tesla thinks summon is accident prone is the simple fact that they haven't included any accidents caused by summon under warranty (like they did for example added coverage for battery fires for Model S, because they knew those happen very rarely so it made for great PR).

I disagree that lack of warranty coverage for summon accidents is "the very best proof" that it can have accidents.

The best proof comes from Tesla directly. They advise that it must be monitored at all times. They also clearly state that it is still in Beta. If accidents were extremely unlikely, they wouldn't require it to be closely monitored and they wouldn't say it was still in Beta. Parking lot accidents happen every day, even with experienced and sober drivers. That's what insurance is for.

 

[StealthP3D]

It does bug the pee-waddin out of me, as my mother used to say, when our wealth manager called the other day urging immediate sale of 20% of our TSLA stake since it now constitutes 60% of our portfolio instead of the long-standing 40%. What is the emergency? Have we invaded someone else?

Well.............. did you do it?

 

[LJS22]

soon = I dunno 2 years?
Tesla time.

Feature complete will likely be the first half of this year. Obviously won’t be incredibly useful as you’ll have to monitor the car to make sure it’s stopping at lights/signs, yielding, more of a progress update to the fleet.
I’m more interested in less monitoring on highways. I’d like to get hands off steering wheel on long drives. That will be incredibly useful.