Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

If short, and you can't buy to close due to insufficient funds... what happens?

You have just discovered why margin calls exist. Briefly, your broker requires that you maintain something like 125% of the short in your account. This way, even if the stock goes up sharply, there's enough to cover your short. If the short value gets too close to your margin the broker says, "add more, or we close your position." Depending on broker, yada yada, you get some time to add funds (or cover of your own accord).

However, if you've been called and your short interest gets too close to the margin the broker will just cover for you.

I'm not trader, etc., so take it with a grain of salt, but I think the sharp rise today was from exactly that. I think with the recent rises many (retail) shorts had been margin called. Those who were strapped were hoping for a drop and neither closed nor added money. Once the run started brokers were busy closing positions which added fuel.

Do I think any big short closed out? Possible, but I wouldn't attribute the sharp rise to that. They don't have a time crunch and don't have to cover going into a rise. That said, I do think there has likely been some covering. I think the upcoming short interest numbers will show an increase due to their age, but I think the one after will show a drop.

 

[M3Rider]

@Unpilot, any insight on 600 & 700?

 

[jbcarioca]

Re, Ghosn... as a reminder. It's possible for a person...

1) To have done a tremendous amount of good (re: electrification)
2) To have been subjected to an unfair, abusive criminal justice system
3) To have had the charges dug up for "political" reasons by opponents within Nissan
...
4) ... and to still be guilty as sin concerning the charges at hand.

The whole situation concerning Ghosn is dirty and ugly. But that doesn't mean he's actually innocent of the charges.

As a reminder of what the charges actually are:
Carlos Ghosn: the charges against him - France 24

I wish I knew less about Ghosn and Nissan. Anyway:
1) actually less true than it looks. He was teh one who insisted on cheap so nixed active cooling.
2) he insisted on making own batteries because cheaper but ignored changes in technology.
3) I'm confident your (4) is valid.
4) Once indicted in Japan one's 'goose is cooked' but indictment is a fairly rigorous process. Their's is not an anglo-saxon legal system, although the legislative system is superficially a carbon copy.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Why do people sound so surprised by the price action lately? IMO we are still some distance to go before it’s at a reasonable valuation

Yeah as good as this all feels, my fair value price for Tesla right after Q3 earnings was about 550/share. It has only gone up since considering the good news we have gotten (Q4 numbers, Giga 3 operational, Giga 4 planning). It will go up again if Q4 earnings are as good as I think they will be and/or if there's a update on Model Y production/delivery dates.

 

[Jack6591]

Consider Elon Musk at this market capitalization, with this level of financial power — the ability to shift away from fossil fuels is at hand. Planet Earth can heal.

Imagine the rewilding of our biosphere.

 

[AudubonB]

A retail short announcing capitulation on Twitter:

Twitter

If you read that tweet, think carefully about the first abbreviation he uses. Read the correct way, it's quite appropriate.

 

[Lessmog]

Thanks for the response. Please note it’s a Sensitive topic for me (and others I suggest).

My Dad was part of a Armored force that fought through Germany and liberated/saw first hand a “Camp”.

The word is just toxic and despite animosity for today’s current politician, assigning that word easily is just not appropriate. So, please don’t use it so easily.

Still, while inappropriate for this forum, it is not at all inept given the bigger picture of his heritage and prior actions etc.
Being forewarned we really should be forearmed.
But as I said, here is perhaps not the proper place for that discussion, except as it pertains to macro and real world as opposed to Nazdaq. (Oops)

 

[jerry33]

same here .. i am actually considering retirement right now.. need to thank this forum for the mental toughness of the folks on this thread..

I was kind of retired a year ago. Thanks to the folks on this thread, I may not have to eat cat food--at least not for awhile.

 

[wipster]

Ahaha bite me. Hands go in glove. Gloves go in pockets.

Methinks you're sniffin' something other than the mornin' cool...

 

[JBRR]

TransportationGov on Twitter

 

[Chickenlittle]

@Unpilot, any insight on 600 & 700?

Yes 700 is 100 higher

 

[Electroman]

It is a new, human planted, forest.

What was there before? say 50 years ago?

 

[goinfraftw]

From an investment firm in Bermuda: Work on renewable energy coalition under way | The Royal Gazette:Bermuda Business

The company is signed up to the Paris Agreement goals of keeping the global rise in temperature to within 2 per cent of pre-industrial levels, said Mr Olunloyo.

To help achieve those goals, L&G is aligning its portfolio of direct investments, worth tens of billions of dollars. That means not investing in certain companies with carbon exposure, and doing the same on behalf of its clients. L&G has more than £1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) in assets under management worldwide.

“Climate change is the biggest risk facing the world right now and is something we all have to take very seriously,” said Mr Olunloyo.

Mr Olunloyo said: “The vision is that we can dramatically accelerate the adoption of clean energy sources in Bermuda, as is the case around the world.

“We are talking about globally a $30 trillion problem — that’s the amount of investment that is required.”

Bermuda can be a part of that transformation, and play a role in assisting the rest of the world to do the same.

“So what is going to happen in the world in the next 20 or 30 years when you have $30 trillion being invested to meet the climate goals? That is going to create massive new industries, and by doing the same thing in Bermuda we prepare people for that.

 

[AudubonB]

View attachment 497975

I believe I've found the problem. That feed uses the Euro price, but shows a US$ sign. So that's VW's market cap in Euros. You can check by taking the USD-denominated ADR price (VWAGY) and dividing it by the $/€ conversion - you get that same number.

 

[Artful Dodger]

In my mind I replace the word "charts" with "horoscopes" every time they are mentioned.

Why not? Options writers replace the word "risk" with the word "volatility" -- c.f. "construct validity"

 

[lklundin]

$498 - we might touch $500 today

I am a patient man - I can wait for 500$ to be broken by the new margin calls tomorrow.

 

[abasile]

Everyone else who is gambling with options - good luck! For those with FOMO: note this forum is used for victory laps - plenty of losses exist, won’t be posted here but are all too real.

Last year, I made some pocket change by selling a small number of covered calls on TSLA. One of those calls got exercised months ago at $280 and I vowed not to sell any more shares or covered calls for a good while. The great majority of our TSLA position remains intact, in no small part thanks to the information and views shared here. (I've been lurking, and admittedly skipping many pages here.) Congratulations to those who have successfully made bigger or more aggressive bets on TSLA.

While I'm hoping to hold onto TSLA for a long time, I am thinking about selling a modest fraction of our shares to help pay for a future Tesla vehicle, a new multi-head heat pump system for our home, and other good things. As there's no rush, it would be nice to time such a sale reasonably well. It appears to me that the current bull run still has a ways to go, so I'm just waiting and watching. Another option would be to sell zero TSLA shares and cash out of something else, but that would do nothing to mitigate the "key person risk" that's inherent in having TSLA as a very sizable fraction of our portfolio. For everyone's sake, and for our planet, I hope that Elon is being very diligent about his personal health and physical security!

 

[Lessmog]

Not long time ago there were reasonable TSLAQ authors in Seekingalpha who actually found interesting negative info about Tesla.
Today none of them worth reading. I find that I am here in an echo chamber. I hear only fellow Tesla fanbois. That is bad. as a consequence I have for example widely overestimated the Q4 P&D delivery number. This is dangerous. I want my Mommy!

Maybe settle for a Negative Nanny? (Not me)

 

[Wooloomooloo]

23.5 M shares trades as of 2:25 PM.

Sure there's resistance. Just like the Roman Legions resisted the Mongol Hordes.

Spoiler: Hint

The Mongols won

Sorry to be THAT person, but the Romans and Mongols never fought each other. The Mongols invaded medieval Europe but that was 500 years after the Western Roman Empire collapsed.

 

[JBRR]

https://www.transportation.gov/site...cles/360956/ensuringamericanleadershipav4.pdf