Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

Given high expectations for Q4 delivery numbers (I'm thinking 83,000 in my best-case scenario), what do folks think the market would find "disappointing?"

Depends on Made in China deliveries. If they deliver Shanghai cars it could be as high as 83110, without MIC model 3’s I’d guess 83.106.

 

[StealthP3D]

i don't really agree with a lot of the chatter here that every dip is caused by shorty shorts pulling manipulation shenanigans.

I have to agree with you there. To my eye, TSLA is making much nicer chart patterns than I've seen for a long time. It's like the manipulators have given up, perhaps temporarily, but I can't see their tell-tail signatures in the charts anymore. It's like we finally got that monkey off our back! For now at least.

, but i think it's definitely one aspect of the price movement post-$400 after wallowing in the 250-350 range for so many years.

Is that a big move?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Buyers are back.

 

[sundaymorning]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Fabulous marketing

 

[sundaymorning]

Buyers are back.

Even buyers get fatigued waiting for the dip, might as well buy now. Just imagine a short $10-20k in the red glued to the screen (if he hasn’t already smashed it) waiting for the same dip... My nephew just bought less than a handful of shares. I hope it’ll triple in value within 2-3 years for him.

 

[jbcarioca]

Please tell me you use to own a 959 Porsche...

...but I owned a 996,
and earlier a 525,
so we should pass 525 rapidly although I'll wait a while for 993, just as I did to receive the original.

 

[mongo]

Elon Musk on Twitter

(almost) Foley proof

Also, I'd like to dedicate this post 12:30 rebound to the closing of my call options.

 

[StealthP3D]

I wonder whether this is just the business maturing and monetising their products more aggressively, or if they have a particular target they are trying to hit this quarter and need to boost short term income. Possibly both.

To my eye, it looks like a deliberate attempt to surprise the markets with Q4 results. AKA "short-burn of the century". Granted, I don't think any revenue from Premium Connectivity will be recognized until Q1 but during the earnings call they will almost certainly disclose what percentage of owners subscribed to their $9.99/mo package. This is a growing recurring revenue stream.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Has anyone been watching CNBC today? I would expect that once the share price hits $420, they will remove the TSLA ticker from their scrolling updates and at that point, pretend the company Tesla doesn't exist

 

[Artful Dodger]

It’s only for AWD cars, right? I have the RWD LR, I don’t think we will get it.

The Options appears to be only cars that include at least 1 SRPM motor (rear on 3AWD, front on Raven S/X). Your RWD 3LR definately DOES have an SRPM, so don't give up hope forever. Tesla will find the way, if it can be found.

Cheers!

 

[woodisgood]

To my eye, it looks like a deliberate attempt to surprise the markets with Q4 results. AKA "short-burn of the century". Granted, I don't think any revenue from Premium Connectivity will be recognized until Q1 but during the earnings call they will almost certainly disclose what percentage of owners subscribed to their $9.99/mo package. This is a growing recurring revenue stream.

The spin will be "these numbers are a result of having to charge for software that was previously free in order to mask demand problems and shrinking margins."

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, if Elon calls the head of the SEC a pedo on Twitter, would qualify as a disappointment.

I love the way "young man Musk" appears to be turning into "wise old sage Musk". And he appears to be doing it before his time.

Of course, he had more room for improvement than most CEO's.

 

[Artful Dodger]

it’s interesting that Volkswagen is planning to sell their software to other auto makers. Combining this, with their plans to sell their MEB platform, it looks like Volkswagen is going to be taking the Android BlackBerry approach, to Tesla’s Apple approach.

FTFY.

Cheers!

 

[Fact Checking]

Has anyone been watching CNBC today? I would expect that once the share price hits $420, they will remove the TSLA ticker from their scrolling updates and at that point, pretend the company Tesla doesn't exist

I predict that CNBC will be back with big headlines in a few weeks:

"Tesla's future in doubt, can they sell 500,000 vehicles in 2020? TSLA stock crashes -2%, closing on a 52-day low of $523."​

 

[StealthP3D]

The spin will be "these numbers are a result of having to charge for software that was previously free in order to mask demand problems and shrinking margins."

That kind of spin will garner about as much traction as a '69 Impala on wet glaze ice.

Nobody is taking the spin doctors seriously anymore. And why would they? Their previous spin has caused a lot of potential investors to miss out on a lot of profit! When you cry wolf too many times, people stop listening.

 

[Tslynk67]

I’ll be there!

I'll commit to that too - you'd best start scouting-out a hotel @KarenRei

 

[replicant]

Good news keeps rolling:

Peter Mock on Twitter

France has updated its Bonus-Malus vehicle tax (blue is new, brown is old):

The malus system starts to kick in at vehicles whose emissions are not much worse than a Prius. The costs are now doubled, rising to an eye-watering €20k for vehicles with emission levels similar to a BMW 340i. The change to the bonuses now basically means that PHEVs no longer get €6 - only BEVs.

This is awesome news for Tesla

It won't have much an impact, e.g all the top selling SUV won't be affected.

 

[neezer]

Woops my bad sorry about that, I should have figured using that word or as such would not be in good taste nor with the conduct rules here :S

 

[StealthP3D]

Buyers are back.

I suspect that, in addition to new buyers, there remains a huge number of short sales that still need covering. Some of them found it tasty when it briefly dropped back into the $300's. That didn't last long, did it?

I suspect this is how it will go for some time.

 

[Tslynk67]

How many AWD 3s have been sold to date? Even a small take rate on the 2k option could add up. Going forward that will be a solid bit of extra revenue that will be almost pure profit. More than the money itself though, it highlights Tesla's edge with OTA updates and software. Using the same hardware in AWD and P cars might have looked wasteful to legacy makers, but clearly it was a smart move.

The economy and market are doing well in general. I guess some people do buy cars for Christmas.

In the UK the tradition is not to buy cars in Q4 or Q1, so it's usually a good time to get a decent discount and fancy offers.

In Belgium it's the converse, at least for company cars, where accountants advise their clients to "make some expenses" to avoid taxes.