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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The problem is not limited to cobalt. Watch "Rotten" on Netflix. A lot of groceries we buy are sourced from the dirt poor farmers, who earn cents on dollars that retailers make. There's tons of injustice and violence at the source to control the flow of goods. There are words about justice and sustainability that do not translate to the situation on the ground. Those farmers making 2x of what they do would really help them out and raise the standard of living significantly, but it doesn't happen, the profits are absorbed higher in the chain. The problem is systemic.
Yep. I'd also point out that with artisanal mining, regardless the mineral, the trade in these minerals is illegal. So materials get smuggled out of the country, with official to pay off all along the way. To the basic problem for those at the top of the government is that they don't get much a cut from the trade. Now when they do a deal with multinational like Glencore, top officials in the government are able to pocket a huge chuck. The illegal miners are essentially cutting into their racket. So if you like enriching dictators, "ethically sourced minerals" is their game.

If is hard for many of us to comprehend just how corrupt the system is. My friends fro DRC explained to me how it works this way. They pointed out that public school teachers don't get paid by the government. What they get is an opportunity teach. They can try to extract whatever money they can from families of the students they teach. These are not above board payments of tuition. They are actually bribes, but the government looks away. So what is a teacher to do? The only way you get any compensation for teaching is by pressuring families to pay you. So if you're going to teach, you either starve to death or take bribes. This basic situation exists at all levels of the government, not just teachers. So when the military and law enforcement get called in to curtail illegal mining or illegal trade in minerals, how do you think they get paid? It's not the government. No, it is yet another shakedown of poor families trying to scrape together a living.

No doubt the same kind of corruption impacts farmers too. Corruption impacts everything.

If anyone is looking for a solution here, I don6see any. The best we can do is welcome asylum seekers, refugees and other immigrants fleeing corrupt in places like DRC. Closing our borders to immigrants merely perpetuates oppression and other injustices. There are some 65 million refugees in camps waiting for resettlement in a stable country. Only about 1% get that chance each year. Children are born in these refugee camps, and many of them will live out their entire life in the camps at this rate.

Fair disclosure, I am part of a faith community in Atlanta (Clarkston area) that is focused on ministry among refugees. Our pastor and most of our members are asylees and refugees from the Democratic Republic of Congo. Most of our kids have never really had a chance to be a part of any country before coming to the US. So we welcome their families and try to help them to know this country as home.

20190609_184824.jpg

Here's why I got a Model X that seats 7.
 
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PLEASE READ. VERY IMPORTANT!!!

I want to tell y'all something else that freaked me out about reading his tweets. A few days ago, I happened across a post someone had made about recommending people not buy a Tesla. It piqued my interest so I read it, and made comments in the thread. Here's the thread:

Why I recommend AGAINST buying a Tesla

The post seemed VERY odd to me because the poster had gone from a Tesla LOVER to a Tesla HATER with essentially nothing in between. This is what I commented to someone else about this this poster (before I ever read Speigel's tweets).



When I read this guy's post, I was thinking to myself, "this sure seems like a setup" - like someone going to a lot of effort to seem like a Tesla lover who had a HORRIBLE experience with Tesla, and only because of that horrible experience could no longer recommend Tesla (though it hurt them badly). It really seemed odd to me and I posted that. But what was more surprising was that there were a lot of people on that thread who agreed with the OP. I was shocked. In fact, 45 people gave positive reactions to the post. WTF?

Then, the most shocking thing happened as I read through Spiegel's posts. He had screen-shotted THAT very thread and tweeted it!!

Coincidence? I think not. Folks, there are enemy among us. These people are mentally ill. They care not about their families. They care not about socializing. They care not about money. They care not even about SEX. They have one mission in life and that is to see Tesla, and more importantly, Elon Musk, FAIL. They are organized and calculating. They are even patient.

So please keep that in mind as you post. I can tell you for sure that I have learned a great lesson. Whether the OP in this thread was genuine or not, these freaks are reading these posts and using every word to destroy Tesla and YOUR investment. So please post accordingly.

There is little doubt in my mind that Spiegel is right here on TMC posing as one or more unhappy Tesla owner(s), besmirching their name and trying to dissuade people from purchase. It wouldn't surprise me if he had 10-20 different aliases. A bunch of his cohorts are here too, all under false pretenses. IMO, it's fraud.

It boggles my mind why TMC management doesn't take care of this problem.
 
Taycan.
the lower screen is a mouse that controls the upper screen.

3rd Row Tesla on Twitter

Some folks were wondering what news rocketed the stock today. Reviews of the Porsche Taycant might be part of it. Don't miss the above Twitter thread.

Decades ago, an Ivy League professor of management directed a study of successful corporations that he turned into a popular book and PBS-TV show. I can't remember his name or book title, but I do remember his core message. Paraphrasing:

"We started this study hoping to find some big secret of business success that these companies used. What we found instead is that the general level of business competence in America is so bad that any company using common sense and treating its customers reasonably well can become a massive success."

Tesla's engineering competence is extraordinary, not just common sense, but even if it wasn't, the competence of the automajors is so bad that Tesla seems destined to crush them. One by one, the fearsome "Tesla killers" predicted by shorts are proving to be Tesla roadkill. After the toothless efforts from Audi and Jaguar, the BEV from Porsche was supposed to be Tesla's doom. But look at what Porsche came up with, after more than five years of development, for 2-5 times the price of a Tesla. The reviewer linked above keeps saying "Really unusual, but that's what they've done."

Legacy automakers are not thinking from first principles, not thinking "the best part is no part," not requiring all design teams to work together, not thinking "every engineer is a chief engineer." They are doomed.

Many folks enjoyed my recent post (below) about Ford and Lincoln. So I would call the above Twitter thread Dear God Part Deux.

Dear God, these also-rans are doomed.

Tesla Superchargers have a large rounded cutout to house the charging cable when not in use, so the cable is protected and looks nice.

dims


Lincoln screwed up by making their cable too long to fit in their cutout, but at least they had the right idea (Tesla's).

Lincoln-supercharger.jpg


But the Ford charger (apparently Level 2) has a cutout that is completely nonfunctional, the cable is unprotected, and the tangle looks like hell.

img_20191117_200522-e1574050653595.jpg


So the engineering geniuses at Ford and other "real automakers" are gonna catch up to Tesla and surpass them any day now, according to shorts and their analysts. Uh huh.
 
Can anyone here predict the future? Do we see margin calls tomorrow morning, or will news of EV credits not being extended bring us back a bit?

I'm guessing after the strength displayed after the afternoon (assumed) attack and also going into the close, there are still a lot of people who want to buy TSLA. Probably a combination of new investments, increases in position and short covering.

Today was far stronger than I anticipated - I was expecting more stair-stepping up this week. There will likely be a down day or two in the remainder of the week but I think the uptrend will remain in effect. Then I think there will probably be an attack before manufacturing/deliveries are announced and then it depends upon the news. I do expect Q4 earnings to be a strong positive catalyst so I certainly wouldn't plan on "locking in" any gains at this point in time.

But what do I know? ;)
 
Not really psychopathic. Buffet said to buy when there's blood in the streets. The problem is to be able to predict it or have dumb luck to be flush with cash when it happens. I remember the day Citi shares were going for <$1/share, but I had no cash and I think no trading account other than 401k that went down with the market. I remember the feeling "I wish I had cash" to buy that day.
I guess a good discipline would have you to keep cash for that occasion, but it is more likely to happen when you have so much cash that you future is not impacted when only half of your cash is invested. That is, if you're already a millionaire and can afford to not care about making money.

Nobody had cash at that moment. If there is, it is usually the laddered GIC that matures each month. which at most is 10% of your networth.

Which is why I said you have to be a psychopath to borrow enough money at that time and buy the dip not knowing when the bottom is. I remember people I know who bought the dip of bank stocks after a 50% haircut in their asset, then proceed to see the stock tank another 50%. It was beyond logic.
 
Lawsuit article: “They say the companies failed to regulate their supply chains and instead profited from exploitation.”
Tesla impact report (https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/tesla-impact-report-2019.pdf): “
While Tesla’s responsible sourcing practices apply to all materials and supply chain partners, we recognize the conditions associated with select artisanal mining (ASM) of cobalt in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). To assure the cobalt in Tesla’s supply chain does not come from ASM sites, we have implemented targeted due diligence procedures for cobalt sourcing.
We have visited many cobalt mines and processing plants that support Tesla’s main supply chain, as well as potential future suppliers throughout the world. We discuss with these suppliers the major risks they face and the practices they have implemented to mitigate these risks. Safeguards include chain of custody controls and iterative checks performed from mining through customer delivery to combat illegal or artisanal ore use; on-site security and access control; hiring practices and management engagement to protect against child labor onsite; internal and third-party audit practices; and engagement with local communities to maintain a positive social license to operate.

Of course I'm fully aware of this. They say "support Tesla's main supply chain" - maybe it's another supplier, for instance Samsung batteries, rather than the in-house Panasonic.
 
Of course [Elon] doesn’t seem to mind living the billionaire lifestyle in the meantime :)

Not really. After earning his first billion, Elon could've bought his own island like Branson, or bought yachts and legions of mansions like Ellison, and spend his time kitesurfing with his harem on the beach.

Video: Sir Richard Branson sets new record for most people riding a kitesurf board
Branson-main_tcm25-19933.jpg


Instead Elon spent nearly all his money starting a car company and rocket company, then bought a few houses (I suspect partly as a security strategy) and just a few toys (James Bond's submarine car, which I suspect will help promote Tesla's mission), and slept on the factory floor. The "billionaire lifestyle" is not busting one's ass like Elon does.
 
Yep. I'd also point out that with artisanal mining, regardless the mineral, the trade in these minerals is illegal. So materials get smuggled out of the country, with official to pay off all along the way. To the basic problem for those at the top of the government is that they don't get much a cut from the trade. Now when they do a deal with multinational like Glencore, top officials in the government are able to pocket a huge chuck. The illegal miners are essentially cutting into their racket. So if you like enriching dictators, "ethically sourced minerals" is their game.

If is hard for many of us to comprehend just how corrupt the system is. My friends fro DRC explained to me how it works this way. They pointed out that public school teachers don't get paid by the government. What they get is an opportunity teach. They can try to extract whatever money they can from families of the students they teach. These are not above board payments of tuition. They are actually bribes, but the government looks away. So what is a teacher to do? The only way you get any compensation for teaching is by pressuring families to pay you. So if you're going to teach, you either starve to death or take bribes. This basic situation exists at all levels of the government, not just teachers. So when the military and law enforcement get called in to curtail illegal mining or illegal trade in minerals, how do you think they get paid? It's not the government. No, it is yet another shakedown of poor families trying to scrape together a living.

No doubt the same kind of corruption impacts farmers too. Corruption impacts everything.

If anyone is looking for a solution here, I don6see any. The best we can do is welcome asylum seekers, refugees and other immigrants fleeing corrupt in places like DRC. Closing our borders to immigrants merely perpetuates oppression and other injustices. There are some 65 million refugees in camps waiting for resettlement in a stable country. Only about 1% get that chance each year. Children are born in these refugee camps, and many of them will live out their entire life in the camps at this rate.

Fair disclosure, I am part of a faith community in Atlanta (Clarkston area) that is focused on ministry among refugees. Our pastor and most of our members are asylees and refugees from the Democratic Republic of Congo. Most of our kids have never really had a chance to be a part of any country before coming to the US. So we welcome their families and try to help them to know this country as home.

View attachment 489101
Here's why I got a Model X that seats 7.
Somebody's having fun!
 
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Not really. After earning his first billion, Elon could've bought his own island like Branson, or bought yachts and legions of mansions like Ellison, and spend his time kitesurfing with his harem on the beach.

Video: Sir Richard Branson sets new record for most people riding a kitesurf board
Branson-main_tcm25-19933.jpg


Instead Elon spent nearly all his money starting a car company and rocket company, then bought a few houses (I suspect partly as a security strategy) and just a few toys (James Bond's submarine car, which I suspect will help promote Tesla's mission), and slept on the factory floor. The "billionaire lifestyle" is not busting one's ass like Elon does.

Hey, A guy needs his excercise - might as well have a good time while getting it. ;)

I bet he was totally exhausted after that little excursion! Kite-surfing is hard work!
 
i dunno guys. a 5% gain is not the "short squeeze" i was promised. 420 should be the launching point, not the destination. but it may take some time to really make people realize Tesla's true worth.

i mean seriously -- 3 years ago, there were a ton of legitimate risks to factor in when investing in Tesla: the Model 3 was a fantasy. Tesla was a company with a track record of delivering, what, 30,000 cars per year? liquidity was a real concern. was the demand for the Model 3 legitimate? could Tesla could actually build it? could it be build *at a profit*?? would other automakers have their own trump cards up their sleeves, and beat them to market? would mainstream manufacturers chip away at Tesla's EV market share? would this "tesla fad" die out? would build quality and performance live up to expectations? these were all to varying degrees legitimate risks any investor had to factor in to the company's overall value. and over the last three years, Tesla has emphatically demolished these risks! they are delivering 100,000 vehicles per *quarter*, the'yre making money on their cars at a scary margin, every Tesla Killer has been curb stomped, embarrassed, and exposed, PLUS the company has huge Gigafactories now built in China and pending in Germany.

AND THE STOCK PRICE TODAY IS LOWER RIGHT NOW THAN IT WAS ALMOST 3 YEARS AGO WHEN ALL THESE QUESTIONS COULD STILL BE ASKED WITH A STRAIGHT FACE.

yesterday's 7% gain isn't what's nuts. what's nuts is that it isn't trading at several multiples of what it was in 2016.