Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

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If they'd just make it so the charger would UNPLUG when you release it from the car that would be half the battle for minimal cost... an elastic or spring to retract and lift the unplugged cable out of the way and leave it high and dry maybe. As a wheelchair guy who has to wait for somebody to unplug the charger for me when I get bottled in at the supercharger because I'm trapped with not enough room for my wheelchair so not being able to get out and squeeze between the cars to get in my chair and unplug it myself, it would make life easier and help me vacate the charger stall faster after I'm charged.

Good idea, with a perspective that probably too few think about.

Tesla had to introduce idle fees because some users would otherwise tend to leave their cars at the stall longer than needed.

Now, if one can remotely unplug one's car (e.g. via the app), then some may become tempted to do that just to avoid the idle fees - since these are based on whether the car is plugged in.

So, some thinking is needed here...

 

[abasile]

After there are a couple of thousand CT units roaming around Idaho and Wyoming it may become to seem normal. And therefore more palatable to traditional pickup buyers. Or it could end up more like a Prius. Iconic and selling well for what it is but never entering mainstream status and influencing overall vehicle design. It is impossible to know for sure how history will judge to the CT design.

I think the TCO (total cost of ownership) advantages are so absurdly in favor of the Cybertruck that a great many traditional pickup buyers will learn to like the design. Who wants to leave many thousands of dollars on the table?

A Prius, on the other hand, does have TCO advantages over typical gasoline sedans, but this is peanuts compared to the advantages offered by the CT.

Today, my biggest worry as a TSLA investor is that the CT is "too good" a value. Besides being a great truck, it seems to be a better SUV than the Model Y or the Model X. One sign that Tesla is a true disruptor is that it's willing to disrupt its own products. I'm not saying that X/Y demand will drop to zero, far from it, but many potential X/Y buyers will certainly buy the CT instead. My hope is that margins on the CT, even the 2WD $40k variant, will be strong. If this proves to be the case, thanks to battery cost improvements and manufacturing innovation, then we could see the share price rocket even without major breakthroughs in FSD (full self driving).

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Might have been posted already, but Panasonic GF1 output was up to 30Gwh production rate as of October. It was only 24Gwh/ year in April. Goal is 35 Gwh/year.
Factbox-The World's Biggest Electric Vehicle Battery Makers

 

[KarenRei]

Good idea, with a perspective that probably too few think about.

Tesla had to introduce idle fees because some users would otherwise tend to leave their cars at the stall longer than needed.

Now, if one can remotely unplug one's car (e.g. via the app), then some may become tempted to do that just to avoid the idle fees - since these are based on whether the car is plugged in.

So, some thinking is needed here...

Tesla could always have the cars tattle about whether they've moved away from the stalls or not.

Obviously the goal would be that once you remote disconnect, you smart-summon into the nearest parking space - once Smart Summon can be trusted enough to do that without the owner nearby. Indeed, that'd be so useful to Tesla that they might want to make Smart Summon selectively available to everyone at superchargers once it gets to that point.

Re, remote disconnect... you'll have to be careful on how the cable pulls away from the vehicle. You don't want it to accidentally scratch someone's paint.

 

[tinm]

Happy Thanksgiving, all!

I didn't do this, but I saw it on Twitter and had to share. It says "adam the creator" on it, and whoever you are Adam, kudos.

 

[jerry33]

Um, I might be a little dense but what are these disadvantages?

Before you get one and see that almost all the disadvantages aren't actually real, they are there.

 

[KarenRei]

Happy Thanksgiving, all!

View attachment 482445

I didn't do this, but I saw it on Twitter and had to share. It says "adam the creator" on it, and whoever you are Adam, kudos.

As a vegetarian, I have no need for a Cyberturkey, but it does tempt me to make a Cyberbread pan Seriously, a good loaf of bread requires a thick-walled (fully preheated) pan and a cover for the first half-hour of baking. So a welded-together angular mold might actually work... just remove the top part to brown the bread...

 

[jerry33]

I think the TCO (total cost of ownership) advantages are so absurdly in favor of the Cybertruck that a great many traditional pickup buyers will learn to like the design. Who wants to leave many thousands of dollars on the table?

A Prius, on the other hand, does have TCO advantages over typical gasoline sedans, but this is peanuts compared to the advantages offered by the CT.

Today, my biggest worry as a TSLA investor is that the CT is "too good" a value. Besides being a great truck, it seems to be a better SUV than the Model Y or the Model X. One sign that Tesla is a true disruptor is that it's willing to disrupt its own products. I'm not saying that X/Y demand will drop to zero, far from it, but many potential X/Y buyers will certainly buy the CT instead. My hope is that margins on the CT, even the 2WD $40k variant, will be strong. If this proves to be the case, thanks to battery cost improvements and manufacturing innovation, then we could see the share price rocket even without major breakthroughs in FSD (full self driving).

I don't see the Y dropping at all because many people do not want a big vehicle and in many cities a big vehicle is just not practical. The X, yes, that will drop some. However, the falcon wing doors are a real advantage if you have to deal with child seats, so I don't imagine the drop to be all that much. The 10% or so of drops might easily be taken up by those who, after two years, still don't like the design.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

As a vegetarian, I have no need for a Cyberturkey, but it does tempt me to make a Cyberbread pan Seriously, a good loaf of bread requires a thick-walled (fully preheated) pan and a cover for the first half-hour of baking. So a welded-together angular mold might actually work... just remove the top part to brown the bread...

So first we all agree you're a Bot, and now you tell us you're a Betty Crocker Bot?

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I don't see the Y dropping at all because many people do not want a big vehicle and in many cities a big vehicle is just not practical. The X, yes, that will drop some. However, the falcon wing doors are a real advantage if you have to deal with child seats, so I don't imagine the drop to be all that much. The 10% or so of drops might easily be taken up by those who, after two years, still don't like the design.

Well, don't hate me, but they're going to drop by at least one. I have a Model 3 reservation but will probably pass for the truck.

Dan

 

[shrspeedblade]

Um, I might be a little dense but what are these disadvantages?

Because I've had a couple thousand people in my car talking about Tesla ownership in general, I can assure you there are plenty of people out there that have the perception that they only ever make quick pit stops on road trips that would put a Formula 1 team to shame! (I kid, but you get the picture.)

The problem with this is that in most cases they are incorrect, but as with so many things in this day and age people just entrench if you use things like "reason" and "facts" to point out their misperception, so I don't even bother and just focus on the positives of long distance travel, of which I know a thing or two because I've seen a thing or two with 75k miles!

If the average ICE owner actually had a stop watch on themselves from when they exited, got to a pump, stood there pumping, moved the car to go use the bathroom, maybe bought a snack or a drink, and then got to the on ramp and continued on again they would usually be at 20 minutes or so. Add in a fast food drive in (I know, Americans! ) and you're easily over 30 even if you eat in the car.

I've had a whole lot of supercharger stops that rival those times. However, you have to experience it for yourself. So all you can do is relay your real life experience and let the listener take it as they will.

 

[GOVA]

Ugly design, especially the bottom backend.

I don't think this had been implemented to please your eye.
In case you have no clue, it is there to kill everybody at the ring.

 

[abasile]

I don't see the Y dropping at all because many people do not want a big vehicle and in many cities a big vehicle is just not practical. The X, yes, that will drop some. However, the falcon wing doors are a real advantage if you have to deal with child seats, so I don't imagine the drop to be all that much. The 10% or so of drops might easily be taken up by those who, after two years, still don't like the design.

I'm not really worried about Model X sales dropping because, as Elon Musk bluntly stated, the S/X aren't all that important in the long term.

At least in North America, I'll be surprised if Model Y sales don't end up being significantly lower as a result of the Cybertruck unveiling. You can add me to the list of people likely to cancel a Model Y order in favor of the Cybertruck. Ideally, it would be nice to use a Model Y as a smaller daily driver and keep a Cybertruck for trips, hauling stuff, and big snow days. However, for those who are only buying one new Tesla vehicle, waiting for a more versatile, less expensive Cybertruck is likely to be more attractive if parking isn't a problem.

In most of Europe, uptake of the Cybertruck will be limited due to its large size. However, North America continues to be critical to Tesla's sales. My prediction is that, in the first half of 2020, in North America and possibly in China, Tesla will significantly reduce prices on the Model 3 and Model Y. This may not be necessary if the Cybertruck buzz brings enough new buyers to Tesla, but I doubt that most people drawn to Tesla by the truck are going to be willing to pay the same or more money for the Model Y.

In the long run, cannibalization of Model Y demand by the Cybertruck, combined with price reductions on the Model Y, should not be a problem for Tesla as major cost savings in batteries and manufacturing materialize. In the short to medium term, however, I wouldn't be surprised if the stock has a bumpy ride as all of this gets sorted out. It's really hard to say.

 

[Electroman]

Thanks and you laid out the arguments very well.

his Buzzfeed email is going to be shown to the jurors, which won't be flattering.

I think this is where his defense that the word 'pedo' means something else in South Africa where he grew up, fails badly. No Jury is going buy that argument, given that Elon has lived in NA for several decades now, and expressly mentioned that to Buzzfeed and also hired a private investigator to find out if Unsworth is a pedo.

 

[Ocelot]

Because I've had a couple thousand people in my car talking about Tesla ownership in general, I can assure you there are plenty of people out there that have the perception that they only ever make quick pit stops on road trips that would put a Formula 1 team to shame! (I kid, but you get the picture.)

The problem with this is that in most cases they are incorrect, but as with so many things in this day and age people just entrench if you use things like "reason" and "facts" to point out their misperception, so I don't even bother and just focus on the positives of long distance travel, of which I know a thing or two because I've seen a thing or two with 75k miles!

If the average ICE owner actually had a stop watch on themselves from when they exited, got to a pump, stood there pumping, moved the car to go use the bathroom, maybe bought a snack or a drink, and then got to the on ramp and continued on again they would usually be at 20 minutes or so. Add in a fast food drive in (I know, Americans! ) and you're easily over 30 even if you eat in the car.

I've had a whole lot of supercharger stops that rival those times. However, you have to experience it for yourself. So all you can do is relay your real life experience and let the listener take it as they will.

Not a perception . As someone who drives an EV, with kids...a lot of stops can be unscheduled. In an ICE you can fill up anywhere. In an EV you cannot. Meaning stop once to pee, then stop again to pee, then stop to charge. instead of 2 stops or whatever the case may be. Also with an ICE you have the option of filling up and going. It does happen you know. Definitely an advantage. With that said, likely in a the next 5 years or so, you will be able to charge as fast as filling up your tank..and that to me is the last of the disadvantages excluding the debate of mining for minerals vs mining for hydrocarbons.

 

[Ocelot]

Thanks and you laid out the arguments very well.



I think this is where his defense that the word 'pedo' means something else in South Africa where he grew up, fails badly. No Jury is going buy that argument, given that Elon has lived in NA for several decades now, and expressly mentioned that to Buzzfeed and also hired a private investigator to find out if Unsworth is a pedo.

hard to imagine how being insulted by one of the most famous people in the world does not cause damage. settle out of court..and move on.

 

[floydboy]

the whole lawsuit drama is a waste of judicial resources. It’s scumbag lawyers seeking attention/fame. Absolutely None sense at its best!

Well, they did exchange insults. So as is customary in the American tort system, the wealthier individual must pay!(The lawyers)

 

[JRP3]

In an ICE you can fill up anywhere.

Not at home, or at work, or at any place with electricity.

 

[JRP3]

hard to imagine how being insulted by one of the most famous people in the world does not cause damage. settle out of court..and move on.

Insults aren't illegal nor do they automatically cause damages.

 

[Quesder]

Tesla could always have the cars tattle about whether they've moved away from the stalls or not.

Obviously the goal would be that once you remote disconnect, you smart-summon into the nearest parking space - once Smart Summon can be trusted enough to do that without the owner nearby. Indeed, that'd be so useful to Tesla that they might want to make Smart Summon selectively available to everyone at superchargers once it gets to that point.

Re, remote disconnect... you'll have to be careful on how the cable pulls away from the vehicle. You don't want it to accidentally scratch someone's paint.

I would say that, the Car should flash it’s lights and tells everyone that the charge is done.
Then, the plug is unlocked and anyone who is waiting can unplug it. When that happens, Ana notification is sent to the owner to activate summon.