Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Navin]

Let’s see who the shorts roll out of their bullpen before market opens.

will it be Lora - maybe but likely too weak.

will it be Tim Higgins and Charley - double team wrestlemania cage match style - possibly.

will it be chump Adam Jonas and a downgrade - could be but he’s kinda lost his magic star power.

stay tuned gentemens

....And Lora gets the call from the bullpen; albeit as a relief pitcher vs starter.
Tesla's Elon Musk knew SolarCity faced a 'liquidity crisis' at time of 2016 deal, legal documents show

 

[humbaba]

Just some musings about short interest.

First, @ihors3 was under reporting $TSLA short interest (32.62 vs 37.19 for 15 Oct 2019) [1]

Second, @ihors3 latest report is $TSLA short interest of 32.95 [2]

His new chart shows a spike up to the real short interest mid-month -- looks like it was inserted as an outlier without any smoothing. Unfortunately, that far back Market Watch only shows daily, but there was no noticeable change in close compared to prior/following days so it seems (relatively) unlikely that it was a weird spike on the 15th.

In terms of the utility of his data service (at least with respect to $TSLA) it looks useless* as it failed to accurately depict either the instantaneous amount of short interest (S3 "realtime" short interest) or the trend. On 15 Oct 2019 he was claiming that short interest had been in a steady decline starting August/September. A closer inspection of the charts shows that his current data diverged from the old starting with Oct 1st. Whereas before he had claimed a continued declined with a slight bump followed by a steep decline in short interest his revision shows an upward trend and where he had claimed the steep decline was instead a steep rise.

I'm not quite sure how the data is intended to be interpreted in support of short selling, but showing a steep decline in short interest when in fact there was an increase is not a minor error.

1) Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

$TSLA short int is $8.31 bn; 32.62 mm shs shorted; 23.13% of float; 0.58% borrow fee. Shorts are down $1.4 billion in mark-to-marker losses this morning as #Tesla beatearnings & sales expectations. Read my research note at:

2) Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

$TSLA short int is $10.81 bn; 32.95 mm shs shorted; 23.36% of float; 0.57% borrow fee.Shs shorted down -3.7 mm shs,-10% over last 30 days & down -2.4mm shs over last week.Shorts down -$444mm in mark-to-market losses in 2019;down -$2.94 billion over the last week, down -$233 today

* yeah, yeah, I know there's some been saying that for sometime, but here's some data

[I'll try to add the overlaid image in an edit. It was clumsy / awkward as I don't have any good tools ATM.]

 

[anthonyj]

....And Lora gets the call from the bullpen; albeit as a relief pitcher vs starter.
Tesla's Elon Musk knew SolarCity faced a 'liquidity crisis' at time of 2016 deal, legal documents show

She's worse than Spiegel. I'm telling you

 

[Fact Checking]

I'm not quite sure how the data is intended to be interpreted in support of short selling, but showing a steep decline in short interest when in fact there was an increase is not a minor error.

Yes, I came to a similar conclusion: I don't think Ihor's TSLA data is reliable October this year, not even as a trend indicator. Either his model broke down, or it was never correct to begin with.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Speaking of CNBC......where's the Chanos interview???

 

[KarenRei]

If they were good enough for Napoleon... (okay, not euro)

Europe not being united under a single currency under Napoleon was certainly not for a lack of trying.

 

[anthonyj]

$331 AH rn

 

[Fact Checking]

Europe not being united under a single currency under Napoleon was certainly not for a lack of trying.

Actually, under Napoleon Europe was united under a single de facto currency: the gold standard.

 

[dw4ngg]

$331 AH rn

good consolidation day.. hoping for another leg up tmrw.

 

[humbaba]

Yes, I came to a similar conclusion: I don't think Ihor's TSLA data is reliable October this year, not even as a trend indicator. Either his model broke down, or it was never correct to begin with.

My opinion, and giving him the benefit of doubt that his model works well in general, but I think his model breaks with $TSLA because it does not/cannot account for the manipulation.

For example, he apparently relies on his "street" information on short interest activity to be a representative sampling. For that to work it needs to be a random sampling of sufficient size -- and naturally he is not in a position for it to be random and hence there are hidden biases present regardless of whether or not the sample would be of sufficient size.

 

[EVDRVN]

His thesis is based on Tesla being the first mover in the electric car market. *cough* GM *cough* EV1

Actual press release. Tesla and Toyota partnered for RAV4 EV, Toyota gains EV experience from Tesla. Too funny since Toyota already had a RAV many years before and was no stranger to EZ drive systems, in fact they made traction motors that were quite reliable overall. Oddly I think Toyota's strategy may be like that of the Prius release. They can use Hydrogen free funds to refine tech and as a stop gap to credits.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Canadians get a pass bcos as everyone knows they are friendly, eh?

No doot aboot it.

 

[M3Rider]

No doot aboot it.

Return of the bird! What do we owe it to?
Do I remember correctly you changed orientation from short to long?

 

[Causalien]

Ummm, no. I didn't start investing last year and you're not going to be able to convince me that has any merit. Silly, silly, silly...

The dead giveaway is you're planning 3-6 months in advance. That's not how you make money.

Meh, already made my money when tsla went from $20 to $200. You do you, I do me.

 

[AlMc]

Allright ppl, don't get too carried away.

Q4 will probably be positive. But the combination of ramping Model Y and 3 in Gyna + hiring as well as the chinese new year in January will mean we have some headwind in Q1 2020. It is best to structure your entry/exit so that you lighten the load a bit after they release q4 ER in Jan.

Of course, if tesla remains gaap positive in q1, then we will probably see the mother if all short squeeze.

So here you want to straddle in april 2021. Cause either way it will be epic.

You don't make much sense here.

I don't consider my TSLA shares a burden, I consider them an under-valued asset that is appreciating as TSLA ramps production capacity, offerings and reduces costs. An asset that will likely be worth a multiple of its current value in 5 short years. Why would I want to "lighten the load a bit"?

I will interject that 'The crystal ball' (Causalien's) made me a nice profit over the years. I don't listen to any one person to decide how to invest but he has been pretty darn accurate over the several years he has been on this site.

 

[TradingInvest]

For those who have smaller funds, I suggest you try your best to earn more money from work, or do extra job in your spare time, Uber/Lyft or something. Every few shares you add now will likely to be worth a Tesla car in a few years.

For those who have a lot of money in TSLA, I suggest you spend more time to check your investment approach, so you don't get hurt by the market manipulators. Specifically, think about various scenarios and plan how you will handle each situation. High leverage + hope is not the best strategy.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

The Boring Company did not reinforce the Hawthorne tunnel with steel before abandoning it, Are they reinforcing the Las Vegas people mover, Loop to O'Hare, or DC to NYC tunnels?

Do you know that the precast concrete sections did not have steel reinforcements in them? Or are you guessing?

 

[GOVA]

Anybody with access to www.spiegel.de ?

They seem to have an interesting article: "Von 100 auf null"
DER SPIEGEL 44/2019

Very interested in seeing at least the cliffs.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Return of the bird! What do we owe it to?
Do I remember correctly you changed orientation from short to long?

The Phoenix has arisen from the short burn.

 

[Unpilot]

The Phoenix has arisen from the short burn.

And on a down day....hmmm