Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Here's a thread that may be appropriate:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-bev-competition-developments(Or lack thereof).31617/

 

[Sancho]

I believe that TSLA will continue to go up from here in volatile fashion in the short term. The real question I have is where the next trading range is.

Thinking low 400s to mid to high 300s after 420 is taken out. Maybe before the end of the year. Or the end of next week if this craziness continues.

The next step up can happen when we get through 2020 Q2 and the ramping is on full display for all to see with the Model Y and yet another Gigafactory in the mix. That should take TSLA to the 600s.

Obviously talking out of my butt, but that's what this thread is for sometimes, right?

Opinions?

I’ll play. (As I’m doing with real money):

I think the SP will kiss $400 soon, and then all the manipulation will reappear, keeping the SP in the high $300s for many months.

 

[traxila]

Rivian needs to step it up.

We want those cars on the road. Time to spend some cash and ramp.

 

[Rarity]

A 3-day old opinion piece by Henry Payne of The Detroit News about UAW anxiety toward BEVs. He traces the heretofore broad political alignment between the UAW and Democratic politicians on green issues and how that might be coming to an end based on a UAW report on the negative attributes of BEVs (at least for the UAW).

Payne: UAW-GM fight exposes fears of an EV future

NB: Payne owns a Model 3.

 

[RobStark]

He's in denial, I don't think he exited. He even cited "demand problems" but they are selling every car they can make. So who knows what that's based upon beyond deep-seated hate of Tesla.

Tesla is selling every Model 3 they can make.

They are not selling every Gen II vehicle they can make.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I love my autopilot V3, but I have a hard time believing feature complete in two months when my car still can't drive 30 miles on the highway without slamming on the brakes at least once for no reason....

What you have in your car is in no way indicative of what has been developed and is just about ready for release. We all know how quickly things can change.

Dan

 

[Chunky Jr.]

As an investor, the primary value I place on FSD for the next few years are:
1) cool feature to drive car sales
2) critical technology that will add significant value to the company
3) possibility of a Tesla branded competitor to Uber and Lyft but with human drivers

I don't think fully autonomous robotaxis with no driver will be viable for at least 5 years. Even if the technology is working, I think it will take several years for consumers to feel comfortable with it, so there will need to be a transitional period with a person in the car even if they don't do anything but be there in case of an emergency. Tesla having their own branded ride service to compete with Uber/Lyft will start that ball rolling.

 

[dhrivnak]

I believe that TSLA will continue to go up from here in volatile fashion in the short term. The real question I have is where the next trading range is.

Thinking low 400s to mid to high 300s after 420 is taken out. Maybe before the end of the year. Or the end of next week if this craziness continues.

The next step up can happen when we get through 2020 Q2 and the ramping is on full display for all to see with the Model Y and yet another Gigafactory in the mix. That should take TSLA to the 600s.

Obviously talking out of my butt, but that's what this thread is for sometimes, right?

Opinions?

Personally I think they need another solid quarter before we break $350. I hope I am wrong but for most analysts I would think they want to see another solid profit.

 

[StealthP3D]

If Tesla knows Robo taxi is ready to work, they should raise tons of money to buy leaps. Later get the shares and cancel them.

Unfortunately, that would be the definition of illegal insider trading and this is a crime you can bet the SEC would prosecute instead of looking the other way like they have been doing with the TSLA manipulators.

If the SEC ever decides it's in their best interest to go after the TSLA manipulators (perhaps because a Sanders, Warren or Yang gets elected), TSLA share shares will do some mind-boggling acrobatics that you couldn't even fathom as possible before you saw it with your own eyes.

-The TSLA situation is pretty unique in the history of all public companies (and not for the reasons TSLAQ thinks).
-The future is hard to see. Not TSLA's business plan but how all these events will unfold.
-Expect the unexpected. No one will predict in advance the timing or the substance of many of the possible triggers to the unwinding of the short positions.
-It might happen in an orderly fashion but there is something about the TSLA situation that makes me think it won't be all that orderly.

Place your bets and let them ride!

 

[RobStark]

He has a legal duty as a CEO to capture value for shareholders and not throw away half his profits with too low pricing or by giving away valuable assets to customers far below their value.

Then why is he giving Tesla patents away? Tesla has never been about grabbing every penny.

Anyways, Tesla can capture all of the value over 20 years not necessarily all up front.

If people don't want FSD for personal use let them put it in the robotaxi fleet anyways. Let Tesla grab a bigger share of the fare vs people that did pay for FSD.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla is selling every Model 3 they can make.

They are not selling every Gen II vehicle they can make.

Actually, Tesla deliveries were around ~80% of Raven production capacity in Q3, and they reported an uptick in S+X orders for Q4, and the delivery delay in the U.S. increased to over 2 months.

I.e. in Q4 I'm quite sure Tesla is selling every Raven they are making, and most new S/X U.S. orders from today to December 31 are going to be filled in Q1, not Q4.

 

[Fact Checking]

Then why is he giving Tesla patents away?

Tesla's patent pledge is perhaps one of their most misunderstood legal constructs.

Tesla is not "giving away" their patents, to the contrary: they are opening them up with a strong defensive patent covenant that automatically withdraws those patents if another carmaker or their partner sues Tesla over patents or any other IP:

Legal | Tesla's Patent Pledge

"Tesla irrevocably pledges that it will not initiate a lawsuit against any party for infringing a Tesla Patent through activity relating to electric vehicles or related equipment for so long as such party is acting in good faith."

...

A party is "acting in good faith" for so long as such party and its related or affiliated companies have not:

• asserted, helped others assert or had a financial stake in any assertion of (i) any patent or other intellectual property right against Tesla or (ii) any patent right against a third party for its use of technologies relating to electric vehicles or related equipment;
• challenged, helped others challenge, or had a financial stake in any challenge to any Tesla patent; or
• marketed or sold any knock-off product (e.g., a product created by imitating or copying the design or appearance of a Tesla product or which suggests an association with or endorsement by Tesla) or provided any material assistance to another party doing so."

The pledge is broadly transitive across corporate relationships and financial interests, and protects both Tesla and Tesla's suppliers.

It's basically a powerful viral license that encourages openness and non-aggression - in a world where ICE carmakers and their suppliers are holding an offensive arsenal of thousands of key automotive patents that might apply to EVs as well.

It's not a "giveaway" but a powerful defensive wall and a honeytrap.

Tesla's patent pledge is a "big moat in plain sight".

 

[Causalien]

A 3-day old opinion piece by Henry Payne of The Detroit News about UAW anxiety toward BEVs. He traces the heretofore broad political alignment between the UAW and Democratic politicians on green issues and how that might be coming to an end based on a UAW report on the negative attributes of BEVs (at least for the UAW).

Payne: UAW-GM fight exposes fears of an EV future

NB: Payne owns a Model 3.

This thought pattern baffles me. I am always learning and had always just hunkered down and grind through a new field when these kind of things happen.

The UAW should be retraining these people to take on EV skills as well as green energy skills. Didn't they hear about the lack of labour for Panasonic at Giga 1? Giga 2 will probably experience the same thing. In any case, the transition to EV will require so much new labour that they probably don't have to worry about this for a long time. It speaks of someone injecting fear without doing the math. How many million of ICE is on the road vs how many EV we need to produce to replace them?

 

[Johnny Ma]

Unfortunately, that would be the definition of illegal insider trading and this is a crime you can bet the SEC would prosecute instead of looking the other way like they have been doing with the TSLA manipulators.

Didn't Microsoft buy call options on their own stock and make a ton of money? I thought it was actually legal for the company to trade on their own stock. You never *know* if your product will be a success.

Asking out of ignorance, btw. Would love clarification/correction.

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla has reached escape velocity and no one will be able to ever compete at this rate. Rivian is toast and so is legacy auto. No amount of money will change that. Just facts, not hype

 

[SarahsDad]

Maybe these randomly stacked crates in the abandoned Rivian factory lot are trying to tell us something.

Google Maps

 

[Singuy]

I love my autopilot V3, but I have a hard time believing feature complete in two months when my car still can't drive 30 miles on the highway without slamming on the brakes at least once for no reason....

Technically, if the car can get you from point A to B with no interventions but rapid decelerated once or twice still ends up completing its mission as an autonomous vehicle.

Level 3 or 4 never dictated that the car must drive like a human.

 

[Cosmacelf]

This thought pattern baffles me. I am always learning and had always just hunkered down and grind through a new field when these kind of things happen.

The UAW should be retraining these people to take on EV skills as well as green energy skills. Didn't they hear about the lack of labour for Panasonic at Giga 1? Giga 2 will probably experience the same thing. In any case, the transition to EV will require so much new labour that they probably don't have to worry about this for a long time. It speaks of someone injecting fear without doing the math. How many million of ICE is on the road vs how many EV we need to produce to replace them?

Moving people from Detroit to Sparks, NV isn't an easy task. Also, the article points out that new EV manufacturing might not be union shops. A huge amount of value in an EV is in the battery cells, and absent Panasonic, no one is manufacturing battery cells in the US (although some foreign companies are intending to set up shop here to do that, but they aren't likely to be union shops either). IMHO, unions are correct to worry about EV adoption. But I also doubt they are going to let this disagreement with Democrats affect their alliance with them, they are too joined at the hip for that.The UAW may temper Democrat policies a bit, who knows...

 

[Fact Checking]

-It might happen in an orderly fashion but there is something about the TSLA situation that makes me think it won't be all that orderly.

I have looked at Friday's insane TSLA trading on the 1-second timeframe, and it was chaotic carnage with shorts clearly not in control of the price action, despite what appeared to be desperate measures.

So I agree that what we are seeing is unprecedented.

Not advice though.

 

[ZsoZso]

With 940,000 homes losing power yesterday in NorCal, what % do you think might decide that a couple powerwalls and solar might be a good idea going forward?

RT

I might be wrong, but my understanding is that the solar + couple of powerwalls solution is still grid-tied and provides solution for normal daily shift of production - usage differences (where you produce more energy during the sunny day-light time than used, but need to use some energy during the dark hours). However, it does not give you the ability to operate off-grid for 2 main reasons:

1. Your system would not be able to power the house in case of a several day generation outage due to bad weather (stormy, cloudy for several days in a row). You would need much bigger battery packs for true off-grid worst case scenario (upto a week or two usage amount would need to be stored).

2. You need different inverters for off-grid use than grid-tied use. Inverter models that are designed for grid-tie application are synced to the grid to generate the same sinus wave of AC power and they simply SHUT DOWN, when the grid is down -- at least that is the case for my grid-tied roof-top solar system I have been using for 8 year snow.

Because of these points, I believe a 2 powerwall system will not save you in case of a several day outage. You maybe able to ride-out a short outage of a few hours, but not anything prolonged.