Did you see a run up? SP was stable to negative the last few days. If you are talking about the run up over the last few weeks: we did have a good delivery report.
By the way, SP ran up even more before Q2 results. For sure no one knew then !!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Did you see a run up? SP was stable to negative the last few days. If you are talking about the run up over the last few weeks: we did have a good delivery report.
By the way, SP ran up even more before Q2 results. For sure no one knew then !!
I don't think so, compare the property outline on the map to satellite images
The big end of the property is at the south / bottom in both satellite images and the factory layout that was tweeted, and clearly the actual building is on the white empty "reserved" side of the tweeted image, rather than on the side the image indicates the factory is on.
It is entirely possible that the GF3 internal layout is very similar, just on the opposite side, but clearly it can't be even just mirrored or moved to the side, as the existing phase 1 buildings are not the entire length like that layout indicates, with a large gap in-between, power building at the south, parking lot and "phase 1b" (not sure if official or just what the youtubers are calling it) construction underway in the middle between those.
Probably the leaked layout was an older plan, from before phase 1 construction began.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Good call! Solar Roof v3 is being introduced TODAY!
Antares Nebula
Active Member
Any chance my 340 lotto calls I bought last Friday for five cents comes in the money by Friday? 
Any chance my 340 lotto calls I bought last Friday for five cents comes in the money by Friday?
When unsure, split the difference
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
... AND faster supercharging for the 3SR.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yes, Elon confirmed that the new building now under construction at GF3 will be for making "batteries and modules".
Antares Nebula
Active Member
On the call, they said GM in China would NOT be higher than GM in USA. Why? Learned lessons from USA (this will eventually even out as USA also incorporates those lessons), cheaper parts and labor, and (I think) higher ASP than USA. What do I have wrong or am missing?
Very upset we loose 6$ on the night ?
we loose 6$ on the night ?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Initial fixed cost absorption will be poor, so GM might even be negative in Q4. Will improve in Q1-Q2, but they didn't want to over promise.
This is what I got with my model:
These were calculated as follows:
1) Subtract credits from Automotive sales revenue & profit.
2) Estimate M3 ASP and Margin or COGS.
3) Calculate M3 revenue and profit based on those estimations.
4) Caculate MS+X revenue and profit. (Total revenue and profit minus M3 revenue and profit from #3)
5) Calculate MS+X ASP and COGS.
Singer3000
Member
Nah... we all know margins will be rubbish when they're ramping. The analyst question was really about steady state gross margins in China and Elon sandbagged the answer because he didn't want to annoy Tesla's customers there.
Capex per unit in Shanghai was 65% lower than Fremont wasn't it? So that's two thirds of depreciation before you've started. Wages in China are far lower than California, which I assume is a major component of COGS. There's no tariffs chargeable on any Chinese components like there is in the US. The logistics cost to get finished cars to customers will be mega cheap. The energy is reportedly subsidised by the state (this is pretty common). And Tesla has flexibility in how much of the saving in tariffs from producing locally they pocket and how much they pass on. I'm unclear on what credits might do to this but doubt it's major.
The only reason why steady state margins in China wouldn't be way better is if the ASP is materially lower and even then I have my doubts.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
2024 - Model 2. That's probably the engineering team that Elon was recruiting for in China back in September. Look for a ~$25K price point.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Pezpunk
Active Member
good morning everyone! anyone with predictions about whether we'll finish above yesterday's closing price?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
If you think Charging a Chinese billionaire 25% less than an upper middle class Mexican is fair then you are mistaken.
good morning everyone! anyone with predictions about whether we'll finish above yesterday's closing price?
Sure, but maybe not above after hours price.
I somehow feel that a lot of people have their positions built around 300 and many who got break even will sell and go away. Margin calls will come today after the close, so tomorrow we will be higher than 300.
I hope I am wrong about today. If there will be not much selling we can see 330-350 rather quickly
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
good morning everyone! anyone with predictions about whether we'll finish above yesterday's closing price?
Shhhhh, please don't jinx it!!
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Volvo is a wholly owned subsidiary of Geely.
And Geely will definitely be producing Volvo EVs in China for domestic consumption as well as Polestar mostly for export.
VAG,BMW and Mercedes have Chinese production capacity but so far don't make premium EVs in China. So far they are meeting their BEV quotas by having their Chinese JV partners make cheap low end EVs. But that can change quickly.
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