Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

I wonder if the Taycan reservation deposit is refundable?

Reservations are refundable.

Some dealers did pre-orders with signed contracts that specified price (at MSRP or MSRP plus %) that guaranteed a car from initial dealer allotment. Backing out incurs big penalty, like $5k.

 

[mongo]

No way it has three motors. Main feature is better brakes and software to use them more then regen on the track to control battery heating. Tires, seats upgraded for racing and track mode as you say. Maybe a slightly upgraded battery as well.

+$20k only.

Well, that aged badly.

Elon says Plaid powertrain is a year out. 3 Motors.

 

[RobStark]

DON’T POKE THE BEAR.

I don’t know how to translate that to German or I would have done so.

Elon is channeling his inner Tormund.

 

[bhtooefr]

From 3:50 to 3:55 EST the price went up to $2.82 then fell back to $1.03
Not sure if it was a Robin Hood glitch or not.

I've been noticing a fair amount of glitches in Robinhood options pricing...

Let's face it, given where the bid/ask spread was, you'd expect an actual transaction to have occurred at that price, and the minimum and maximum yesterday never got anywhere close to that spike.

Drum brake nostalgia?

I did just realize how VW's getting away with rear drums... rear axle regen. (I still don't like it, but I get why they did it.)

The big drawbacks to rear drums are modulation (they're harder to modulate than discs, due to their self-energizing behavior) and heat.

Regen reduces the heat load in everything but track driving. (And, I mean, many cheap cars have rear drums still, without any regenerative braking.)

The poorer modulation isn't as big of an issue on rear drums as it would be on front drums, but it does actually affect ride quality. Disc-based systems can prefer to do braking with the rear brakes initially, then move to the front. Drums can't as easily do that, so you get more nose dive under braking.

...but they have a braking system on the rear axle that's even easier to modulate than discs, the electric motor.

A production-based car will never beat a racecar purpose-built for the FIA World Endurance Championship.

And that particular car was then modified to be significantly faster than the WEC entry, as it didn't have to abide by any racing regulations.

My pure speculation updated after reading this:
Twitter

Holy damn at the track performance. Now I want to see a comparable lap time in an ICE sports car overlaid or played side by side, to see how the car makes its time.

 

[RobStark]

 

[Prunesquallor]

jesus does this dingaling ever stop whining?

Roadster Turbo edition for him.

 

[Beltsbear]

Well, that aged badly.

Really not sure. Elon did not say three motors in the S/X , it’s just high performance. Second, we were talking about the production version of the car they are breaking the track record with. If that p100d+ pictured has THREE motors I will be shocked but also happy. One year from now I would not be surprised by a three motor version. That’s a while.

 

[bhtooefr]

Elon did not say three motors in the S/X

He literally said "Yes" in reply to "3 motors on the new Model S with Plaid Mode?" - yes, that is a year from now in Elon time, but considering they ran a Plaid prototype for a Laguna Seca record...

 

[KarenRei]

Holy damn at the track performance. Now I want to see a comparable lap time in an ICE sports car overlaid or played side by side, to see how the car makes its time.

Imagine what time they could have gotten if the driver had been sober!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Surprised they're talking about this update when its apparently a year out. At least put a price figure to it so that people that are considering a Perf S or X don't wait for the update.

 

[Todd Burch]

Imagine what time they could have gotten if the driver had been sober!

Yeah to my amateur eye there appeared to be a few places there where mistakes could have added up to a few seconds of lost time. Wonder if Nico will do Laguna as a warmup?

 

[Todd Burch]

Surprised they're talking about this update when its apparently a year out. At least put a price figure to it so that people that are considering a Perf S or X don't wait for the update.

Elon said “more expensive than our current offerings but less than competitors”.

I’d guess $150k for an S that can out-perform a top-spec $200k+ Taycan in every metric except cigarette lighters (including The Ring).

 

[KarenRei]

Surprised they're talking about this update when its apparently a year out. At least put a price figure to it so that people that are considering a Perf S or X don't wait for the update.

Fully agree. I still hope that they also run a Raven S. Otherwise, they're just osbourning themselves. And the "plaid will be more expensive" aspect doesn't cut it; you're casting your existing models in the light of "These are old tech" (when they're not at all, they're freshly upgraded). I don't care if they put track tires on it or other "normal" things that people do for a track day - I just want it to be a car that you can buy today.

They've reportedly got two cars with them. Hopefully they're not both plaid.

 

[MartinAustin]

TSLA after-hours at $248.40, higher than today's intraday high.

It's now at its highest since July 24th when the earnings were announced.

I think Porsche are quaking in their boots right now. Nurburgring 30-minute window has been identified, new car w/ 3 motors that just broke the record at another track (with amateur driver) and F1 champion Nico Rosberg who loves Tesla is going to drive it? It's even worse that Nico is from Germany.

More and more pundits are starting to say Tesla is too far ahead of legacy manufacturers, which could cause industry-wide problems if Tesla continues to increase production. I say... Elon gave them until about 2014-2015 to collaborate and/or start serious endeavours. As we all know they did neither. Elon concluded "THEY WILL PAY FOR THIS!" and embarked on an incredible solo path of innovation.

It's still possible for the legacy manufacturers top catch up, or at least, not embarrass themselves. The answer is to license from Tesla. Whether it be motors, batteries, the Supercharger network, or whatever else Tesla will let them have, it's becoming pretty obvious that the entire non-Tesla part of the automotive world is stumbling over its own hubris and realising there is a new leader.

 

[larmor]

Elon said “more expensive than our current offerings but less than competitors”.

I’d guess $150k for an S that can out-perform a top-spec $200k+ Taycan in every metric except cigarette lighters (including The Ring).

and add to the exception list, an analog clock taped to the dash board....

 

[dc_h]

It looks like this will be a new trim level: P100D+

(picture from: Tesla Model S spied prepping for Nurburgring lap attempt)

So I guess there goes the complaints about it being a one-off custom version for the run. And I suspect that it will become orderable after they complete the run.

But thanks for finding that they were using tires that can't currently be ordered, even if they said it was series-production tires. So just like he said it was production and the video said prototype it seems like he didn't know what was actually done.

I'm surprised that they have it out in public without hiding anything. I would have least left the + off.

Elon says it won’t be available until next year. He might Osborne some Tesla, but won’t help Porsche. Moral of the story, don’t poke the tiger, or get a bigger stick.

Elon on Twitter.
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[mongo]

Fully agree. I still hope that they also run a Raven S. Otherwise, they're just osbourning themselves. And the "plaid will be more expensive" aspect doesn't cut it; you're casting your existing models in the light of "These are old tech" (when they're not at all, they're freshly upgraded). I don't care if they put track tires on it or other "normal" things that people do for a track day - I just want it to be a car that you can buy today.

They've reportedly got two cars with them. Hopefully they're not both plaid.

At $140k (or whatever plaid marked up price it is) a piece, I'm fine with Tesla Osborning a few* orders P orders. Sure, less sales now, but more margin later.
*those for whom cost is no object.


I'd also hope they have two Plaids, otherwise one bad turn or part failure and their record attempt is done. Besides, once one knows there is a faster version, is the speed of the 2nd best relevant?

 

[MartinAustin]

"Powertrain about a year away from production" means, to me, a battery pack improved via the acquisition of Maxwell.

If I were in the market for a Tesla right now I would not hold off for this stuff, the Raven is proving to be an awesome upgrade. "About a year away" is a great statement to hold off on Osborning, and in any case, it's all about racing, which not everyone needs.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Elon said “more expensive than our current offerings but less than competitors”.

I’d guess $150k for an S that can out-perform a top-spec $200k+ Taycan in every metric except cigarette lighters (including The Ring).

Elon needs to say "its gonna be at least 30k more than the Raven Perf S" Just saying more expensive leaves way too much to interpretation. It's not a good thing for P S/X demand for the next year until he clarifies the price difference

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

If they’ve had to ship a special Model S from the US, then it has to have major hardware upgrades on the car. It can’t just be small things like better tires/wheels or software upgrade like track mode, or else they would just use a German spec car....

Some people disagreed with this, but always use Occam’s Razor