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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
"Together in electric dreams...."
You think the call will start on time?
Is it at the same time as the Mueller testimony?
One can only hope...and pray to the FSM that this happens.
As vehicle electrification continues, service revenue will decline. Because most dealer's profits come from service, and their facilities are expensive to operate, they will lose the majority of their profits. What service items remain are:
Body damage (often farmed out by dealers)
Tires and alignment (which most dealers are not good at)
Brakes (vastly reduced with EVs)
HVAC service
Minor adjustments (wind noise, doors, hood, hatch, etc.)
Wiper blades, fluid, and cabin air filters (often DIY)
Drive line service (seldom)
Battery service/replacement (seldom)
Electronic component replacement (seldom)
None of this will provide enough revenue to keep dealers alive. So their main profit area will be new and used car sales. This will mean that to be viable, prices will have to rise substantially.
LOL Roth capital issued a downgrade to “neutral” to PT of $230 on “Battery & competition” concerns
It used to be that if you issued a note 2 days before earnings you would have been laughed out of the room for incompetence.
(Stock was closing in on $262 before that note came out)
It used to be that if you issued a note 2 days before earnings you would have been laughed out of the room for incompetence.
(Stock was closing in on $262 before that note came out)
Specifically: Tesla downgraded to Neutral on battery, competition risks at Roth Capital TSLA - The Fly
Price target downgraded from $238 to... $238.
(only "Buy" was downgraded to "Neutral"). Note the hilarious reasoning:Tesla downgraded to Neutral on battery, competition risks at Roth Capital
As previously reported, Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin downgraded Tesla to Neutral from Buy. He believes Tesla has a viable path to meet at least the low end of its 360,000-400,000 deliveries guidance for 2019, but this does not eliminate margin risks from rising 2019 battery costs or the impact of intensifying competition, Irwin tells investors. The analyst, who expects the shares to remain range bound until the battery and competition issues are resolved, keeps a $238 price target on the stock.
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anthonyj
Stonks
He’s another Twinkie stuffing clown like Dan Ives, they are selling puts to the stupid bears that get aroused from “competition concerns”. Give me more shares idc lol Tesla is going back to $380 this year guaranteed
What makes you claim these price predictions with so much certainty? You keep saying the stock price will go through the roof **guaranteed!** but what's the point of repeating this again and again? You can explain what makes you believe this, obviously, but repeating such claims to a (mostly) bullish audience, without any arguments, helps no one.
Norway:
July 2018 was a slow month, with 70 S+X.
July 2019 is already at 338, with 213 3. This means 125 S+X, and still growing.
No "no demand" YoY (of course, we are way down MoM, but the wave is not unwinded yet, and Q3 looks healthy, but there's still time to see ships fullo of SR+ flooding Norway. I expect a *great* Q3.).
July 2018 was a slow month, with 70 S+X.
July 2019 is already at 338, with 213 3. This means 125 S+X, and still growing.
No "no demand" YoY (of course, we are way down MoM, but the wave is not unwinded yet, and Q3 looks healthy, but there's still time to see ships fullo of SR+ flooding Norway. I expect a *great* Q3.).
Krugerrand
Meow
Where do I apply for one of those manager jobs?
Or more succinctly:
Taking into account that Q2 (orange) started with a lot of Q1 cars already sitting in Europe which Tesla simply wasn't able to deliver in time, but Q3 (red) didn't, it's looking pretty nice. If this keeps up we should pass Q2 in a week or two.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Krugerrand
Meow
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
Just doing my bit for the wider google-fu of supporting the bull narrative here:
Cliffski's Blog | The case for buying tesla stock.
TBH typing all that made me want to buy even more stock
Cliffski's Blog | The case for buying tesla stock.
TBH typing all that made me want to buy even more stock
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Predicting share prices is a real crapshoot.
That said, I'm not substantially changing my prediction from July 12th ( Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable ) when I said it looks like the breakout will take us up into the $250's before earnings where it will hang out until we get further guidance. And then a nice after earnings bump where it will continue to rise over the next week or two into the $ 280s (the exact amount depends upon the bullishness of guidance). It does look like we might enter the $260s briefly but will likely drop back into the upper $250s before earnings/guidance. At least I hope that is how it unfolds because I think a more tempered share price before earnings/guidance sets us up for a stronger move afterward.
Too much rise in the share price before earnings could be a sign that bears are accumulating so they can sell upon earnings release in order to signal that the big money does not view the news as bullish. My guess is that earnings/guidance will be too bullish for this to have a good chance of succeeding in keeping the price down for more than a brief intra-day period and the price will rise at least into the $280s given a little time.
To those of you who have seen your shares lose big value and who wish they had sold I will say this:
Yes, if you are over-extended in TSLA shares, please sell. It's never good to bet more than you can afford to lose. But to everyone else, I would remind them that a move from $250s to $280s is not a large move in terms of percentage. If the story really is turning around and there is no "big bad wolf" that rears its ugly head down the road, this rally could be much bigger over the coming months.
Always think in terms of percentage, not absolute dollars/share, especially when dealing with shares valued in the triple digits. A useful technique I always use with triple-digit shares is to mentally convert them to double-digit values by dividing by 10. I'm not "revaluing" the company, just converting the share prices and price movements to units that I find easier to process and that I am more familiar with. In the 1980's to the 2000's stocks almost always split to avoid being in the triple digits but that has apparently fallen out of favor.
Using this technique, I see TSLA has a high share price of $38 and we are coming off a low of $18 and sitting at $25. Lacking trouble in China, serious problems at Freemont/G2 or a global recession/lack of demand in the coming months, I see $36 as an easy target. And with smooth sailing, I see $72-$80 as a distinct possibility within a year. But that's if everything goes reasonably well which is far from a given. Even in a fairly bad scenario, I don't see the SP dropping much below $20 again - that would take a serious risk of Tesla basically not succeeding which is always a possibility no matter that I consider it somewhat unlikely. The most likely scenario is possibly that we are rangebound between $26 and $38-$42 for another year or two. Of course, it depends upon Tesla's progress.
I find this kind of thought useful (looking at the big picture and not fretting over every dollar or two) when deciding allocation levels and when or if I might want to sell. Always think of the bigger picture, don't get caught up in the smaller movements, that's not how wealth is created. I hope the best for Tesla but it's beyond my control. I'm far from a perma-bull but I also know how violently a stock like this can move and how short-sighted people tend to cash out too early if things are good and too late if things are bad.
Krugerrand
Meow
You think the call will start on time?
ER calls are always very close to being on time. I get the joke, except it doesn’t actually apply in this instance so it’s not actually funny.
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X Fan
Active Member
So, we’ve got a big week ahead of us.
Naturally, TSLA stock price changes are unpredictable but what is everyone’s SWAG on what results are needed to see the price rise this week?
Naturally, TSLA stock price changes are unpredictable but what is everyone’s SWAG on what results are needed to see the price rise this week?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Good guess. The Upper-BB opened at $264.14 this morning, so we've got $6 of headroom vs Friday's Close before the technical traders start selling:
EDIT: the Macros are good:
NASDAQ-100 INDEX: NDX
7,888.75 +53.85 (0.69%)
Jul. 22, 9:50 a.m. EDT
7,888.75 +53.85 (0.69%)
Jul. 22, 9:50 a.m. EDT
Cheers!
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mickificki
Member
Just doing my bit for the wider google-fu of supporting the bull narrative here:
Cliffski's Blog | The case for buying tesla stock.
TBH typing all that made me want to buy even more stock
Thanks for all the work in writing the article. Nice read.
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