Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[brian45011]

The inventory issue explains why they should be cashflow positive this quarter when they were not last quarter, but it doesn't affect profitability - building excess cars does not directly impact profits because the value of the cars remains on the balance sheet and is not a loss, but it does of course affect cashflow.

It's an opportunity cost--vehicles in inventory would have contributed to gross profits had they been delivered.

 

[Antares Nebula]

2019 Tesla Model 3: Why I’d Buy It - Christian Seabaugh - MotorTrend

 

[JusRelax]

I have my emergency fund in a GS savings account. Can anyone recommend another account that pays a relatively good interest rate? Thanks!

I recommend Alliant Credit Union - haven't had an issue with them:

Bank Products: Open a Bank Account | Alliant Credit Union

 

[Drax7]

Which money though? This doesn't make sense.



Are you saying they got a donation from Audi?
Wondering if there's a way to verify it. Otherwise I am totally at loss why such an obvious bias.

first and foremost principle. Follow the money

 

[brian45011]

Fastned, a fast charging network operator based in the Netherlands, opened trading on Euronext. It wasn't an IPO per se since Dutch retail investors could previously already subscribe to certificates through a boutique trading desk. Those certificates traded (with very little liquidity) at around 8-11 EUR/share for the last few years. Today, first day on Euronext the share price rose from 11 EUR at opening to 31 EUR right now (late afternoon here). Market cap is around 470M EUR for 103 in-service CCS charging stations at prime locations in the Netherlands and Germany with a further 150+ in development in the Netherlands, Germany, the UK, Switzerland and Belgium. It remains to be seen how much of that share price is just opening day excitement in a small market (volume worth of 2.4M EUR so far) or a lasting valuation.

Still, assuming Fastned is valued at $500M, how much should we value the Tesla network within Tesla? On the one hand the supercharger network is a lot bigger, but on the other hand it is restricted to one brand and (at least in Europe) not located in the same premium locations as Fastned's. Still, $2-3B just for Tesla charging network does not seem an implausible valuation?

Is Fastned profitable?

 

[neroden]

I think Tony Seba's prediction is very likely to come true, that is, "buy 2025 every new vehicle will be electric."

I used to think his prediction is too aggressive, maybe 1/3 of new vehicles will be electric by 2025.

I think he's too aggressive, simply because the industry can't ramp up that fast. The growth rate, worldwide, has been that EV production doubles every two years -- quite consistently. It was about 2 million in 2018. So the total number produced in 2025 should be roughly 12 million. I think total car sales will still be around 78 million. So, less than 1/6 of new car sales.

However, following that same curve, we should be at nearly-100% electric before 2030; 2028 maybe. The last 10% of new ICE vehicles will take longer but it will all be in weird niche small-volume vehicle markets; nobody will be able to afford to mass-produce gasoline cars.

Now I think he could be right. In the next few years, EVs will continue to get better (we can see how fast Tesla is improving their cars), cost goes lower due to scale, autonomous driving may start to commercialize. Meanwhile, as ICE cars' demand goes down, their cost will go up. It's likely that by 2025 most of the vehicle demand will be EV, though supply may not be enough to meet the demand.

That is true.

 

[AndyH]

M3 UK deliveries. A man also talks to the camera while walking backwards.

 

[neroden]

They are available for hire.

Harvey Weinstein’s Army of Spies

Reports: Intel Firm Was Hired To Discredit Former Obama Iran Deal Negotiators

Private Mossad for Hire

Thank you. That explains it.

So, Russia runs its own troll factory. They don't need to hire outsiders, though they might.

Someone else is probably hiring the Israeli private spies/propagandists. (Saudi Arabia? Exxon?)

 

[heltok]

Sweden inventory

Got an email that finally model 3 was in inventory in Sweden. Checked what is offered:
Model S: 0
Model X: 0
Model 3: ~100, All AWD, mostly black aero, some blue and grey, no red or white

 

[SunCatcher]

2019 Tesla Model 3: Why I’d Buy It - Christian Seabaugh - MotorTrend

"The Best $50,000 Sports Sedan" Motor Trend

"So, are we happy... with the decision, to pick the Tesla Model 3 over the BMW 3 Series and the Genesis G70?"

"There's a little bit of sadness to see this changing of eras happen...to see the gasoline... to see the traditional sports sedan overtaken like this."

"Well we came to our decision; the Tesla Model 3 is the winner of this comparison."

 

[neroden]

You're forgetting about the osbourning of the entire ICE industry. It's not so much that production needs to scale up to match current capacity, but that demand for ICE will also fall to whatever EV production levels are in 2025. South America and Africa might be the only places left that would still want/allow ICE sales. Norway, UK, and China will have banned ICE sales by then. In which case EV sales (at 10M-15M per year) could easily be over 50% of automotive sales.

This is *possible* but I'm not sure the Osbourning can be *that* aggressive... down from 78 million to 30 million total? Doubt it.

Looked at another way, the proof of EV demand isn't the number of EV's sold, but rather how much fewer ICE vehicles are sold each year (relative to their peak). Those lost sales are people buying or waiting to buy an EV. So although Seba's prediction might be a little agressive, I don't think he's too far off.

 

[neroden]

UAW calls strike against supplier to Ford, FCA, Tesla

The plant, which employs 1,900 UAW members, supplies interior parts to Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Ford Motor Co. and Tesla Inc., the UAW said.

Geez. This plant sounds like the sort of reason unions were invented. The top complaint? "Fix the roof!" Working conditions are no good.

 

[Zaxxon]

Maybe won't hit the record, but should be close. #fredwarning

Tesla deliveries are ramping up, but the quarterly record is not in the bag, source says - Electrek

 

[Driver Dave]

Surprising traffic down trend since May 27 according to Alexa.
Tesla Competitive Analysis, Marketing Mix and Traffic - Alexa

TESLA.COM still way better than GM.COM

like sears.com to amazon.com... GM.COM so stuck in past.

 

[Papafox]

Papafox, the more I watch the SP over the years, the more I’m convinced that the bulk of the mischief is not done by pure shorts, but by sellers of options. It’s unadulterated manipulation to make money on weekly (and longer) options. There is enormous profit in this.

The shorts happily pile on, but I suspect that they don’t have nearly as much influence themselves on the SP relative to all the noise they make in the press, TSLAQ, etc.

The option sellers quietly make their money, with help from shills like Tamberrino. They don’t care one way or the other about Tesla. It’s pure greed. I suspect that most of the suspicious trades you are documenting every single day are for the purpose of profiting from weekly options.

@Sancho , I don't think we're really that far apart on our views. I agree there are plenty of option traders who are swing traders and are following the cues from the media and from certain analysts when it is time to get in and out. On the other hand, the manipulations which happen by selling 10s of thousands of shares in one minute's time I think are often calculated efforts that are amplified by the bots, and one needs to either have purchased lots of shares and dump them quickly or do some shorting to bring those market-moving selling sprees to reality. This type of selling behavior is not typical of longs who are trying to divest and not particularly typical of swing traders, either. Then there's the overlap of short-sellers who are also buying puts, just as there are TMC longs who are also buying calls to leverage their bets. Could you please expand upon your view that agnostic option traders are pulling the manipulation levers rather than shorts? I have an open mind. What about mandatory morning dips and capping? How about push downs into close? How much capital do the option traders have to manipulate the market by unusual selling patterns? Are you talking about hedge funds primarily when you refer to manipulative option traders? The normal way for sellers of options to make money is through decay of time value while they delta-hedge to remain neutral. I remain curious.

 

[UncaNed]

2019 Tesla Model 3: Why I’d Buy It - Christian Seabaugh - MotorTrend

Does everyone else who reads Tesla-positive articles like the Motor Trend article - click directly from the article to the subscription page and subscribe? I hope we're all supporting these honorable Tesla supporters.

Also... how does one submit suggestions for names for VW's great new vaporware cars?-

From the MT Article:
"No other network of electric car chargers yet exists in this country that can rival Tesla's (though Volkswagen-backed Electrify America has grand ambitions to develop"

I recommend they call their 2022 VW concept e-bus the Grand Ambition.

 

[UncaNed]

Which money though? This doesn't make sense.



Are you saying they got a donation from Audi?
Wondering if there's a way to verify it. Otherwise I am totally at loss why such an obvious bias.

CR published a list of their donors recently; many of them provided huge amounts of funding.

 

[SunCatcher]

I recommend they call their 2022 VW concept e-bus the Grand Ambition.

Well, I recommend they call it "Good Idea; Now Make 'em in Numbers Large Enough to Supply the Demand"
Enough with the "Concepts" already!

 

[ggr]

Mod: Deposit Account Interest Rates (out Of Main) . --ggr

 

[urarthur]

The Dutch Tesla inventory is almost non-existent, significant sales last month:

Model X: 0
Model S: 3
Model 3: 96

Looks like S/X inventory is sold out pretty much around the world except Norway, but down significantly last 2-3 weeks.

How would one account for deliveries of returned vehicles? You can't count them twice.