Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggies07]

Cleantech News — #1 In EV, Solar, Wind, Tesla News | CleanTechnica has already collected data on all the FUD and summarized it with a few articles. We need someone to take that and splice in all the CNBC FUD clips and create a more visual/audio presentation for the general public....something that will get people upset once they see what's going on....like with the doc Who Killed the Electric Car

 

[neroden]

Elon disliking sleazy/deceptive/appeal-solely-to-emotion ads that he sees for other brands does not imply that Tesla must follow that path.

Get many more marketing cars out there to let people actually experience the vehicles. Hold annual contests for user-created ads like the one Marques Brownlee won. Stick some targeted web ads out there against searches for competing models. Make an anti-FUD site. Hire more (or more competent) PR people.

This isn't rocket science. Maybe that's why Elon has trouble with it.

In "The Merchants' War", by Frederick Pohl, he makes a distinction between "advertising" and "publicity" (and because it's a satire, it's a really exaggerated difference -- "advertising" is what Musk detests amped up to 11, but publicity is just getting the word out).

Tesla needs better publicity. Advertising is only a small part of publicity.

 

[wipster]

I think getting into mining is the right thing to do. In the next 10 years most likely demand will outstrip supply for key battery materials, simply because EV will grow at a steep rate, mining companies will drag their feet. If Tesla doesn't secure their own supply, they are at the mercy of mining companies. That would be a big business risk. So getting into mining probably will make some money, more importantly can reduce supply risk.

I don't know this for a fact, but I would be white surprised if they didn't have their lithium supply secured for at least the next five years. And owning their own mining company opens the door for even more FUD based on the Bloomberg article about Chile's lithium mining that was posted this afternoon. It's great to have the supply secured, but too risky to own the mine IMHO.

 

[JRP3]

10 Million a year is all that is needed for a decent web presence. Thats a drop in the ocean.

Tesla and Elon don't have a decent web presence?

 

[SpeedGoat]

Agree, they hired the “absolute unit” guy, a good move imho.

I just hope he knew that he would forever be known as the "absolute unit guy" as a result of that tweet.

 

[JRP3]

Except, of course, that that's exactly the sort of situation that advertising can change.

Advertising is going to erase the heavy suspicion of a refresh, the drop in tax credit, and the pull forward from Q4?

 

[JRP3]

While paid advertising is probably a poor ROI at the moment, some form of improved public relations / media relations management would probably be a very good ROI. Maybe hire the nice media relations woman who asked the towing question at the annual meeting. Or, you know, *any* trained media relations person.

This I agree with. I'd like to see a team of well spoken, sharp women such as Tasha Keeney and Andrea James who could go against the talking heads and destroy them. I'd prefer women since they can more aggressively dismiss the most ignorant FUD without being accused of "bullying".

 

[neroden]

I don't know this for a fact, but I would be white surprised if they didn't have their lithium supply secured for at least the next five years.

So, I have a hypothesis about the "going into mining" thing. Tesla has, for years in the past, lined up supply contracts with an *awful lot* of speculative mining companies, of the "if you manage to get your mine up and running, we will buy your product". So far, *not one of them* has gotten financing.

(See the bottom of this article -- all those startup companies they have contracts with? Unfinanced)
Lithium mine near Tesla Gigafactory plans to break ground as global shortage rears head

Their ability to get their extraction facilities financed may become the bottleneck.

So, as early as Jan 2018 there were rumors that Tesla was talking about becoming a partner (investor) in one of the new lithium extraction facilities.
Tesla is reportedly looking to invest in Chile's largest lithium producer

Tesla may well choose to provide the financing for one or more of these operations in order to secure their supply chain. Same thing might happen with cobalt. Probably not any other minerals -- maybe manganese.

Each of these mining operations seems to need between half a billion and a billion dollars to be fully financed.

 

[capster]

I think getting into mining is the right thing to do. In the next 10 years most likely demand will outstrip supply for key battery materials, simply because EV will grow at a steep rate, mining companies will drag their feet. If Tesla doesn't secure their own supply, they are at the mercy of mining companies. That would be a big business risk. So getting into mining probably will make some money, more importantly can reduce supply risk.

But where will Musk find the expertise and technology to solve digging in that high tech way he likes?

 

[EVNow]

Tesla and Elon don't have a decent web presence?

They don't track everyone interested in Tesla, follow them on the web and give informative ads.

Tesla is woefully behind in selling on the web.

 

[Thekiwi]

I had missed this initially. Seems like excellent news for S & X sales in Q2?

“Quarter to date, orders for Model S, X & 3 are outpacing production.”

 

[mikevbf]

The "cat out of the bag" comment felt like they were hinting at complete vertical integration from mining to battery to car.
I have mixed feelings about this if true. I like having Panasonic on board making a product to Tesla specs. It reduces some risk but if they won't keep up that is a problem and obviously there is a cost to sub this out.
There was giddiness to the three on stage like we KNOW something you don't.

My take anyway- Nice to see Elon having fun and relaxed (no reefer in sight)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who picked up on the two strong body language moments of the meeting:
1) Elon was extremely hesitant and somewhat uncomfortable talking about getting into mining and
2) regarding battery advancements and Maxwell, those guys were beyond giddi. They could barely contain themselves on stage. It was a strong confirmation that the Maxwell tech or whatever else they have cooking is HUGE and I would venture the guess: Soon!

 

[Remus]

Advertising is going to erase the heavy suspicion of a refresh, the drop in tax credit, and the pull forward from Q4?

Who are we fooling here? Folks?!

Ads is to pay the Media thugs! As a business owner you pay the gangsters so that they don't kill you and your employees.

So it doesn't matter a tiny bit what you say in the ads!!!

This is "manufactured consensus" on clear display here folks!!

Tesla should partner with Amy Goodman and Noam Chomsky to develop a in-depth story of this sugar.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Later this year. No. They did not give a date.

1. Like I said, I'm okay with cash flow +, but it raises questions to why was Elon so sure about GAAP+ from Q3 2018 forward, and as of today Elon has changed his tune despite record deliveries and guide. This is why bears attack the company and Elon for being a "fraud". He says one thing and then change his tune later. Bears thinks this type of behavior is unacceptable and mislead investors.

2. What it was news is what he said. His team showed him the potential exponential progress of FSD and he extrapolated that it'll be feature complete by the end of the year. This doesn't give me too much confidence since his stance with FSD today is that it still needs a lot of work.

3. Not having enough raw material is a big problem if he expect the Model Y to sell more than S3X combined, not to mention the pickup and cell hungry Semi. I am afraid that there will be another disconnect between what he is saying and reality later like the GAAP+ statement. All these products coming out in 2020, him guiding for 500k/year at shanghai just to find that there are only enough raw material for 200k/year.

Only going to address the GAAP+. I wouldn't be surprised if Elon made that statement under the assumption they were going to do 500k vehicles in 2019.....which if they did then they would have been profitable going forward. I don't think he foresaw cell production from Panasonic stalling at 24. I know it's easy to blame Elon but if Panasonic was telling him, "yeah we're going to get to 32 GW capacity by the start of 2019", then I don't put much blame on Elon.

 

[Zaxxon]

Advertising is going to erase the heavy suspicion of a refresh, the drop in tax credit, and the pull forward from Q4?

Seems silly to have to reply to this, but: yes? By exposing Tesla to folks who don't know Teslas are a thing, or why they're a good buy even after the credit dropped, etc.

Ads is to pay the Media thugs! As a business owner you pay the gangsters so that they don't kill you and your employees.

So it doesn't matter a tiny bit what you say in the ads!!!

This is "manufactured consensus" on clear display here folks!!

This is not productive. Or, you know, rational.

 

[JRP3]

They don't track everyone interested in Tesla, follow them on the web and give informative ads.

Tesla is woefully behind in selling on the web.

So they have a demand problem?

“Quarter to date, orders for Model S, X & 3 are outpacing production.”

As are orders for the Semi, Roadster, and Y. Plus the pickup as soon as it's announced.

 

[Todd Burch]

This. They're going to apply the dry electrode technology pretty much ASAP. We already know it makes the entire battery manfacturing process quicker, makes it take up less space in the factory, makes it use less energy, requires less chemicals, and makes batteries which are higher energy density. (Whew!) That's a lot of benefits.

And better cycle life!

NOW that's a lot of benefits.

 

[Singuy]

Only going to address the GAAP+. I wouldn't be surprised if Elon made that statement under the assumption they were going to do 500k vehicles in 2019.....which if they did then they would have been profitable going forward. I don't think he foresaw cell production from Panasonic stalling at 24. I know it's easy to blame Elon but if Panasonic was telling him, "yeah we're going to get to 32 GW capacity by the start of 2019", then I don't put much blame on Elon.

He is so bad at making projections and should just take it one quarter at a time. Last ER call he said expect GAAP+ Q3 and Q4. Today he's saying cash flow + is what Tesla is aiming for since GAAP+ is difficult for a growth company. Who should we believe? Elon or Elon?

 

[JRP3]

Seems silly to have to reply to this, but: yes? By exposing folks who don't know Teslas are a thing, or why they're a good buy even after the credit dropped, etc.

And how much lead time is there to convince people to buy a new technology from a company they are either unaware of or completely swayed by all the FUD?
"I've never heard of Tesla, other than that they are going bankrupt and their cars explode, but this ad makes me want to spend $80K+ in Q1 and buy one"

 

[mikevbf]

He said a small acquisition. So a small private insurance company ?

maybe this one?
Root Car Insurance