Cameras and computers are relatively easy, drive train and steering sensors and actuators would be between hard and impossible, depending on which car.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Jonas is a clown, but that doesn't mean it's OK to misstate his position. His nominal price target is 233, of which 45 comes from autonomy. He also has a $10 bear case in which autonomy fails (and is thus worth zero) and a bunch of other stuff also goes wrong.
Was watching this video:
Then it hit me. I don’t think enough people realize how fast Tesla are improving. Range was better than competition, just got even 10% better with new cheaper model 3 motors, Maxwell work happening to improve this even further in a few years. Charge rates improved greatly. FSD chip being better and cheaper for the company already in production soon new larger networks will be deployed improving drivable space and object detection and predictions even better. Software gathering more and of data improving new networks even faster. With hack today’s cars can already drive in cities. New intelligent suspension being much better and auto-adjusting. Factory build times improving in China.
I think many people assume Tesla today is ~Tesla 1 year ago, but in fact there have been many large improvement to their products and there are many more coming soon.
Then it hit me. I don’t think enough people realize how fast Tesla are improving. Range was better than competition, just got even 10% better with new cheaper model 3 motors, Maxwell work happening to improve this even further in a few years. Charge rates improved greatly. FSD chip being better and cheaper for the company already in production soon new larger networks will be deployed improving drivable space and object detection and predictions even better. Software gathering more and of data improving new networks even faster. With hack today’s cars can already drive in cities. New intelligent suspension being much better and auto-adjusting. Factory build times improving in China.
I think many people assume Tesla today is ~Tesla 1 year ago, but in fact there have been many large improvement to their products and there are many more coming soon.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
We can also make a list of other items a robotaxi may need to control:
Lights
Indicators
Horn
Wipers
Demisters
Boot/frunk latches
Charge port
Speakers
Screen
Camera heaters
... and there may be other things. So it's pretty handy to have Tesla's software controlled everything design as a start point. There have been some interesting comments on this forum about competitors who supposedly have OTA on high end models, but then they issue a recall on something Tesla would fix over the air - "OTA lite", "OTA some stuff".
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Does Adam Jonas also have a $0 "bear case" for GM, where just one thing "goes wrong": GM's EV transition?
Yeah, didn't think so, his GM rating is "buy", with a price target of $48, 33% over today's GM stock price:
And GM is a company that declared actual bankruptcy a short 10 years ago ...
Adam Jonas is a clown, but the learned helplessness of him when it comes to understanding and valuing Tesla is part of a confidence scheme to defraud investors.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
CyberDutchie
Active Member
This is what he wrote about GM Cruise valuation vs. GM market cap:
“GM is an example of placing its AV tech in a separate legal entity and business unit, called GM Cruise LLC. GM Cruise was formed through the acquisition of Cruise Automation, augmented by GM’s pre-existing AV capabilities and substantial organic expansion. At the start of 2019, GM Cruise had roughly 1,000 employees with plans to double headcount by year-end. Our discussions with investors, technology companies, suppliers and MS research colleagues place GM Cruise amongst the leaders in US automated vehicle technology along with Waymo, Tesla and others.
GM Cruise has helped GM attract capital, retain talent and, in our opinion, gain some element of value attribution from the investment community. GM Cruise has either raised or secured capital commitments of $7.25bn... equal to nearly 1 full year of capex at GM. The most recent post-money valuation of GM Cruise was $19bn, equal to around 35% of GM’s market cap. We value GM Cruise in our SOTP model at $9bn, which is equal to $6 per share or more than 15% of GM’s market cap before minority interest. Beyond attraction of outside capital, our discussions with GM management suggest that the formation of the GM Cruise has been instrumental in attracting, compensating and retaining human talent as well as creating a platform for collaboration with a range of strategic partners.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Everyone here already knows Jonas is a clown, I wonder if he’s on crack as well? Even when he was putting $400 PT on Tesla in the Model XS says I felt the same way about him. His questions are always bizarre, how did you end up being employed in the financial industry?
sundaymorning
Active Member
If he can ask dumb questions he can have dumb ideas.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I don't think it was a joke:
Adam Jones has a $10 valuation for TSLA that is crushing BMW sales in the U.S., has very high customer retention and is selling the car most loved by CR subscribers - but he has a +33% buy rating for GM who only has a ticking time bomb of an ICE business and no viable EV offerings.
A $10 "bear case" necessarily means that if their Autopilot is valued $45 (which valuation is absolutely barebones: MobilEye with just an ASIC and maybe $50m in revenues sold for twice as much ...), he values the rest of Tesla: the leading brand name, the customer base, the ~40 GWh/year cell supply, etc. minus liabilities at -$35.
Which is not just ridiculous, but possibly also investment fraud...
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Python was on the TV regularly when I was a kid, probably started watching it age 8 onwards, something like that. But this sketch I first heard on Monty Python's Instant Record Collection, which someone at school was passing around (on vinyl, of course), back in 1979.
The Monty Python Instant Record Collection - Wikipedia
UK version, obviously. It's a great compilation, but can't see it available anywhere. Summarised Proust is particularly amusing IMO.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Adam Jonas is confusing cause and effect here.
"GM Cruise" was, until three years ago, a San Francisco startup that had absolutely nothing to do with GM:
Cruise Automation - Wikipedia
"GM Cruise LLC, commonly referred to as Cruise or Cruise Automation, is an American driverless car company headquartered in San Francisco, California. Founded in 2013, by Kyle Vogt and Dan Kan, Cruise tests and develops autonomous car technology."
"GM Cruise LLC, commonly referred to as Cruise or Cruise Automation, is an American driverless car company headquartered in San Francisco, California. Founded in 2013, by Kyle Vogt and Dan Kan, Cruise tests and develops autonomous car technology."
Had GM integrated Cruise Automation into GM itself as a business unit, not incorporated, valued it separately with I suppose hefty bonuses and equity stakes to Cruise employees for the good investment rounds, GM Cruise would have lost key talent.
I.e. keeping Cruise Automation separate from the rest of the rather toxic GM corporate name was probably the only viable solution for GM to not lose much of its acquired talent pool early on ... It wasn't an independent decision: it was possibly also a condition of the GM Cruise founders to agree to the buyout in the first place.
Tesla's Autopilot team is the exact opposite: they are a talent pool who came to work for Tesla. If Tesla followed Adam Jonas's suggestion to spin off the Autopilot team would risk the exact opposite outcome: they might risk losing top talent.
I.e. the whole Autopilot spin-off idea is another clueless suggestion by Adam Jonas.
I liked his infamous "Terminator" analyst question better, which he managed to ask when Elon disclosed their AI chip efforts for the first time ever in August 2018:
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
Adam Michael Jonas - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, August 1, 2018: "Hey, everybody. First, there's so much love and respect for colleagues and Wall Street analysts on this call, it's almost – it is lifting my spirits. What can I say? I got two questions. The first is for the Autopilot team. There's an argument that a fully autonomous car is essentially like a Terminator that is programmed to save lives in highly complex terrestrial environments and that this same technology with a few tweaks have some pretty obvious military capability. Do you see any risk that U.S. companies will ultimately not be allowed to operate weapons grade AI-based technology in a market like China and vice versa?"
Adam Michael Jonas - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, August 1, 2018: "Hey, everybody. First, there's so much love and respect for colleagues and Wall Street analysts on this call, it's almost – it is lifting my spirits. What can I say? I got two questions. The first is for the Autopilot team. There's an argument that a fully autonomous car is essentially like a Terminator that is programmed to save lives in highly complex terrestrial environments and that this same technology with a few tweaks have some pretty obvious military capability. Do you see any risk that U.S. companies will ultimately not be allowed to operate weapons grade AI-based technology in a market like China and vice versa?"
Adam Jonas's boneheaded analyst questions where he was wasting Elon's time on the Q2'18 conference call were more informative (about his dubious state of mind) than the total fail of logic he is displaying in his analyst opinions.
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We got Python a bit later here in the States, about 1975 on PBS, but my friends and I were instantly hooked. We'd all get in the proper perspective and gather round my 19" RCA every Tuesday to laugh our keister's off. One of the UK's best contributions to modern culture. I've got several of their albums as well, including the famed 3-sided one. I'll do some searching for the Instant Record Collection and keep you posted.
Thanks for the post! Loved it!
Edit: Just checked Discogs and it's definitely available on the used market... In fact I just ordered one! Can't wait to listen and laugh!
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dc_h
Active Member
What a shill. Tesla Tech at 6 billion vs GM Cruise? I think sadly, the Ark estimate for mobility is too high, this is insulting. Seems like a cheap Wall Street way to put assets in play and find short term value and destroy long term intrinsic value.
Pras
Member
I remembered a joke where to innovate a company creates an innovation room with a banner above it.
The reason to list automation as a separate cost / revenue item makes sense from an accounting perspective.
But not from the stand point of a separate unit / with intent to partner or even work independently. Tesla has the advantage because it works as an integrated team. Many times employees switch projects to focus on key current issues.
OT: Babycharts got triggered by my post 
For the record, I was busy enjoying the long weekend (Thanks Queen Elizabeth!) and actually didn’t report bloodsport capital.
On the way back from the trip, we met up with the @MacRocket family. He was kind enough to let me try autopilot on his Model S 100D.
WTH, guys! Nobody told me autopilot was this good and that it is very intuitive even to a new user. I am buying some more stock with dry powder after that drive!
For the record, I was busy enjoying the long weekend (Thanks Queen Elizabeth!) and actually didn’t report bloodsport capital.
On the way back from the trip, we met up with the @MacRocket family. He was kind enough to let me try autopilot on his Model S 100D.
WTH, guys! Nobody told me autopilot was this good and that it is very intuitive even to a new user. I am buying some more stock with dry powder after that drive!
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
You are making the classic investor mistake of trying out the product and judging the company based on that!!!
Instead of being an astute investor you should try the "Adam Jonas a.k.a. Terminator method" instead:
- after asking boneheaded questions on the quarterly analyst call, make negative sh1t up,
- profit from the TSLA drop,
- reverse the made up sh1t when you read the $$$,$$$ early release of InsiderEV Tesla sales data that falsifies your narrative,
- profit from the TSLA rise
Then why isn't Model X bought twice as much as Model S?
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
There is a cool study where some researchers found that as bunch of chimpanzees picking nuts from a bowl actually had a better return on investment than pro stock pickers. In other words, analysts are not being picked for actual ability, but for some other nebulous reason, likely internal company politics, family connections, etc.
Intuitively, analysts who ever speak in public are likely to be wrong, unless they are actively managing a fund that seeks investment. If you REALLY knew what you were doing, you would raise some money and invest it, not apply for a job at some bank earning 1/10th of what you could make by actually putting money where you mouth was.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
I know I keep banging away at this point, but in the UK (and much of Europe) the X is just TOO BIG, as in 'this car cannot fit in this multi-storey car park' too big. Not just awkward, or difficult, but totally and utterly impractical for 95% of people.
Even a bunch of 4x4s in Europe have 4x4 styling but are TINY compared to many american vehicles. People like the SUV style, but they want it to fit in their tiny garage.
I have a double garage here in the UK, and my model S will not fit through the doors. Its not *tight* or *tricky* its physically too wide.
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