Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tronguy]

I totally agree! What has happened here is very distressing.

Hm.

I've been scanning the thread and, once in a great while, adding some info-or-other. Honestly, I haven't noticed too much of a change.. except there is a fair amount of negativity.

But, if the FUDsters and bots are at it, well, this wouldn't be the first time: They collectively did in the Tesla Forums over at tesla.com some years back.

The difference between there and then and here and now is the existence of moderators. Tesla famously didn't really moderate their forums. Although they did take a couple of whacks of doing it with some form of moderation.

But what I keep on noting is the number of posts (not large) claiming that the moderators are being corrupted. Somehow. And that everything is going to pot. Hmm..

I wonder if this is a concerted effort by the trolls/bots/paid-for-trolls to delegitimize the forum as a source of reliable information. I mean, consider AIDs, the virus: It infects the immune system which, once it's dead, allows other opportunistic infections, that normally wouldn't stand a snowball's chance in a warm place, to kill the infected person.

I therefore suspect that there's not that many trolls around.. but they may be changing tactics.

If the above is true (for a given value of true), the obvious cure is for the moderators to (a) not lose heart and (b) do what they normally do, without fear or favor.

As far as going for a model where Not Everybody Gets To Post Immediately.. Well, that was done back on good old NetNews, back in the day. There were news forums where each and every post had to be approved by a select number of moderators. Said forums were notably free of spam (invented on NetNews, by Cantor & Seigel!) and the whackier members of the tin-foil-hat wearing public. The problem is, of course, that the number of posts tends to drop, and not all of those posts are of the spammy variety.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Hm.

I've been scanning the thread and, once in a great while, adding some info-or-other. Honestly, I haven't noticed too much of a change.. except there is a fair amount of negativity.

But, if the FUDsters and bots are at it, well, this wouldn't be the first time: They collectively did in the Tesla Forums over at tesla.com some years back.

The difference between there and then and here and now is the existence of moderators. Tesla famously didn't really moderate their forums. Although they did take a couple of whacks of doing it with some form of moderation.

But what I keep on noting is the number of posts (not large) claiming that the moderators are being corrupted. Somehow. And that everything is going to pot. Hmm..

I wonder if this is a concerted effort by the trolls/bots/paid-for-trolls to delegitimize the forum as a source of reliable information. I mean, consider AIDs, the virus: It infects the immune system which, once it's dead, allows other opportunistic infections, that normally wouldn't stand a snowball's chance in a warm place, to kill the infected person.

I therefore suspect that there's not that many trolls around.. but they may be changing tactics.

I think it is a lot easier to be disillusioned now than it was a few years ago when the stock was going up like crazy. Back then Tesla could do no wrong and it seemed like a new all time high was hit every week. In hindsight, I think it was irrational exuberance and an EV bubble. Now the company is more mature, the market is more mature, and the stock has been fairly stagnant for a while, so it seems natural the euphoria would wear off.

 

[wipster]

Some more detail below. This might explain why they got rid of the supercharger team - they are going to farm it all out to third parties. Maybe more companies than BP are interested in doing this.

BP “is aggressively looking to acquire real estate to scale our network, which is a heightened focus following the recent Tesla announcement.” It plans to spend $1 billion by 2030, half of it within the next two to three years to install over 3,000 charging points across the US. A key part of the strategy is building large-scale hubs with 12 or more chargers that it calls Gigahubs.

“If there are stranded real estate partners who are looking for someone to call, they should feel free to pick up the phone and call me or look me up on LinkedIn,” Sujay Sharma, chief executive officer of bp pulse Americas, said in an interview with Bloomberg.

Spoiler: X Source

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788632840864702517

Boy, sure glad I made this call last week after the SC team announcement! As SC availability increased, so does the convenience that must eventually accompany 1/2 hour minimum charging stops, i.e. restrooms, convenience stores, restaurants, etc. And while Tesla is starting buildout on several of these facilities, I believe Elon and Tesla mgmt realized that was not the business they wanted to be involved in as it really doesn't fit in with the mission. So selling off "that" aspect of charging makes perfect sense. Tesla can still control and make money not only off the new "unleaded nozzle" (NACS) but the better "gas pump" (V3 SC) while leaving the rest of the convenience aspect to companies already familiar with the business. This is going to become even more important when sales from other BEV manufacturers increase, because many of those drivers owned ICE vehicles previously and are accustomed to such amenities.

Brilliant IMHO...

 

[Linkmeup]

I think it is a lot easier to be disillusioned now than it was a few years ago when the stock was going up like crazy. Back then Tesla could do no wrong and it seemed like a new all time high was hit every week. In hindsight, I think it was irrational exuberance and an EV bubble. Now the company is more mature, the market is more mature, and the stock has been fairly stagnant for a while, so it seems natural the euphoria would wear off.

Your post inspired me to look at the 5-year chart. Legitimately, as the years progressed past the S&P Inclusion at $650 / share (or ~$216 / share post split) on 12/21/2020, the chart looks range bound around the S&P price for 3.5 years so far.

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observing

Interesting tid bit on fossil fuel vehicle slow down. I am hoping this has not already been included in the discussion. If it has, well I am slow. No, I am not a fan of Reuters, just found the article interesting. Assuming Elon knew this, and is making adjustments accordingly, well now you know the rest of the story. Even if Elon was/is unaware of this situation ~ well Tesla is adjusting ahead of the curve.

FYI ~ in high school (1963-68) I remember being told that a recession follows every war. Not a comment about if we won or lost.

Most of what I say or comment on helps me form my opinion in seeking the truth.

Cheers

 

[2daMoon]

Hm.

I've been scanning the thread and, once in a great while, adding some info-or-other. Honestly, I haven't noticed too much of a change.. except there is a fair amount of negativity.

But, if the FUDsters and bots are at it, well, this wouldn't be the first time: They collectively did in the Tesla Forums over at tesla.com some years back.

The difference between there and then and here and now is the existence of moderators. Tesla famously didn't really moderate their forums. Although they did take a couple of whacks of doing it with some form of moderation.

But what I keep on noting is the number of posts (not large) claiming that the moderators are being corrupted. Somehow. And that everything is going to pot. Hmm..

I wonder if this is a concerted effort by the trolls/bots/paid-for-trolls to delegitimize the forum as a source of reliable information. I mean, consider AIDs, the virus: It infects the immune system which, once it's dead, allows other opportunistic infections, that normally wouldn't stand a snowball's chance in a warm place, to kill the infected person.

I therefore suspect that there's not that many trolls around.. but they may be changing tactics.

If the above is true (for a given value of true), the obvious cure is for the moderators to (a) not lose heart and (b) do what they normally do, without fear or favor.

As far as going for a model where Not Everybody Gets To Post Immediately.. Well, that was done back on good old NetNews, back in the day. There were news forums where each and every post had to be approved by a select number of moderators. Said forums were notably free of spam (invented on NetNews, by Cantor & Seigel!) and the whackier members of the tin-foil-hat wearing public. The problem is, of course, that the number of posts tends to drop, and not all of those posts are of the spammy variety.

This reminds me of another company that I heard of recently that was overrun with bots and trolls.

I seem to remember them going to a payment system at a very low cost for membership with rights to contribute. This was effective in significantly reducing the bots and trolls from setting up multiple accounts.

What if the Investor's Roundtable were fee-based?

Would $5/yr or so for members to have the right to post and reply offer a deterrent?

 

[Mengy]

I've said this before and I'll say it again. This was all true, but in 2019, Tesla was worth as low as $13-$23 a share and maybe a $10 billion market cap? We are at $172/share and $540 billion market cap now. Even executing on everything and it's massively profitable, what's a realistic upside from here?

What's a realistic upside from here for TSLA?

My hunch is we stay mostly flat for 2024, finally beat our ATH of $415 in late 2025, and begin to skyrocket in 2026 once RT's are driving and earning and RT production is well underway. Somewhere around 2027 or 2028 Optimus production and sales will likely start, just doing basic work at first but bringing in revenues nonetheless. Once that starts TSLA should easily climb over $1000 per share, maybe by like 2029/2030? And that is with conservative numbers, the revenue potential of both RT's and Optimus ramping at the same time is ludicrous. My opinion is Tesla will keep margins low on both of them in order to aggressively increase adoption and sales. Still, even with aggressively reducing margins, both RT's and Optimus are immense revenue streams. Tesla today is just a startup compared to where it is headed for a few years from now, unless things go completely off the rails.

The timing of it is completely unpredictable, but this stuff is happening, so trying to "time the market" on this is like playing in a bonfire. There likely won't be any magical "now is the time to buy" moment, it will probably happen gradually and before anyone knows it TSLA is well over $1000/share.

 

[advocate8]

Or that a team of 500 people (that's massive) wasn't getting strategic goals done. Plenty of supercharger expansion, but it wasn't hitting the most needed spots. I enjoy road trips and I keep an eye on the map on supercharger.info.

For example, Phoenix has seen growth in multiple locations added on the west side. East side? Still iffy as to how far into satellite cities and the mountains you can go.

I'm not saying it was all bad, but it did give the impression that the team was grabbing the easy locations instead of digging in and getting into the needed gaps.

And 500 people. How does that effort need 500 staff?

Why did the head of the company allow them to be hired then?

 

[Waiting4M3]

This story was about BP installing new Tesla sites at their gas stations, branded as BP chargers. They and Ford each purchased Tesla equipment (and service contracts?) for re-branding around the same time.

The current story might be about BP being interested in buying the existing Supercharger network from Tesla.

There could be something new here. I'll wait till rumor becomes fact and then form an opinion.

 

[Linkmeup]

https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3163780

Don't know if anyone's read this at the bottom:

 

[advocate8]

I'm with you on that Cybertruck role. It was a huge statement: We are coming for your last profitable niche. Get on the wagon or get run over by it.
(I realize that is not 100% true: CT does not cover all uses of pickups, but it covers enough to cause some quaking in boots, one hopes)

This is not how the CT will play out. It will remain a niche vehicle, not an F-150-seller. By the time the problems with political tribalism are finally overcome by EVs and the march of history, and BEV become the dominant form of pickups, the CT will have been replaced or augmented by something in the Tesla lineup with broader appeal, if only a less-polarizing design and normal bodywork and glass.

 

[Zero CO2]

I'm with you on that Cybertruck role. It was a huge statement: We are coming for your last profitable niche. Get on the wagon or get run over by it.
(I realize that is not 100% true: CT does not cover all uses of pickups, but it covers enough to cause some quaking in boots, one hopes)

CT covers majority of SUV and Pickup truck use cases

 

[advocate8]

Hm.

I've been scanning the thread and, once in a great while, adding some info-or-other. Honestly, I haven't noticed too much of a change.. except there is a fair amount of negativity.

But, if the FUDsters and bots are at it, well, this wouldn't be the first time: They collectively did in the Tesla Forums over at tesla.com some years back.

The difference between there and then and here and now is the existence of moderators. Tesla famously didn't really moderate their forums. Although they did take a couple of whacks of doing it with some form of moderation.

But what I keep on noting is the number of posts (not large) claiming that the moderators are being corrupted. Somehow. And that everything is going to pot. Hmm..

I wonder if this is a concerted effort by the trolls/bots/paid-for-trolls to delegitimize the forum as a source of reliable information. I mean, consider AIDs, the virus: It infects the immune system which, once it's dead, allows other opportunistic infections, that normally wouldn't stand a snowball's chance in a warm place, to kill the infected person.

I therefore suspect that there's not that many trolls around.. but they may be changing tactics.

If the above is true (for a given value of true), the obvious cure is for the moderators to (a) not lose heart and (b) do what they normally do, without fear or favor.

As far as going for a model where Not Everybody Gets To Post Immediately.. Well, that was done back on good old NetNews, back in the day. There were news forums where each and every post had to be approved by a select number of moderators. Said forums were notably free of spam (invented on NetNews, by Cantor & Seigel!) and the whackier members of the tin-foil-hat wearing public. The problem is, of course, that the number of posts tends to drop, and not all of those posts are of the spammy variety.

Dude, it is the uber bulls complaining about the moderators. Not relative newcomers, or even 2019-ish people like me. So, the scenario you describe with infiltrators or what not does not really apply.

 

[Linkmeup]

From the last earnings report:

-$2.53B is from the most recent quarter

 

[FreqFlyer]

I think it is a lot easier to be disillusioned now than it was a few years ago when the stock was going up like crazy. Back then Tesla could do no wrong and it seemed like a new all time high was hit every week. In hindsight, I think it was irrational exuberance and an EV bubble. Now the company is more mature, the market is more mature, and the stock has been fairly stagnant for a while, so it seems natural the euphoria would wear off.

Thank you, spot on.

I failed miserably across four posts trying to convey the same point.

 

[Linkmeup]

FSD is such a crazy bet-the-company moment that's really under appreciated or, at least, isn't said out loud enough.

It's not just about cars, its about the robotics and services its going to enable and deliver not only so much operating expense savings (i.e. robotics) and huge profit margins (i.e. software services). Though, for it to happen, you have to sink in just a spaceships amount of money into training + compute to get there.

 

[Zero CO2]

Interesting. Could this all go 3rd party with Tesla selling the equipment.

Elon said they were targeting 10% net but I have my doubts they were actually achieving this. Maybe decided to give up because unless you want to go in to the convenience store business it is probably difficult to make money.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788634455923716443

not sure it is a good thing to let oil interests run SuC network .. will the SuC uptime be compromised ? think VW Electrify America

 

[AZRI11]

Not only that, but: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/08/oil-industry-orders-trump-day-one-00156705

"The U.S. oil industry is drawing up ready-to-sign executive orders for Donald Trump aimed at pushing natural gas exports, cutting drilling costs and increasing offshore oil leases in case he wins a second term, according to energy executives with direct knowledge of the work"

I think we can be fairly confident that the IRA would get gutted too

Democrats are likely to lose control of the Senate but are more than likely to regain control of the House. Can't eliminate the IRA with an executive order. Biggest issue with the IRA is what qualifies as far as battery materials are concerned.

They've never finalized the rules (The legislation gave whatever administration that was in control wiggle room), and I'm sure Trump will change those rules to make it hard for any battery to qualify as far as tax credits are concerned.

 

[Usain]

This is not how the CT will play out. It will remain a niche vehicle, not an F-150-seller. By the time the problems with political tribalism are finally overcome by EVs and the march of history, and BEV become the dominant form of pickups, the CT will have been replaced or augmented by something in the Tesla lineup with broader appeal, if only a less-polarizing design and normal bodywork and glass.

I said it before and I'll say it again. A bullet-proof pickup truck is the most desirable American vehicle you could possibly make.

As long as Tesla commits to ramping and driving down the cost, the CT will destroy F-150, Silverado, and Ram.

 

[2daMoon]

I think it is a lot easier to be disillusioned now than it was a few years ago when the stock was going up like crazy. Back then Tesla could do no wrong and it seemed like a new all time high was hit every week. In hindsight, I think it was irrational exuberance and an EV bubble. Now the company is more mature, the market is more mature, and the stock has been fairly stagnant for a while, so it seems natural the euphoria would wear off.

Though, this can be balanced to some degree against the question, how many other "mature" companies are still cranking out industry leading start-ups from within?

Maybe Tesla is more like a clever, smart, hard-working twenty year old, not mature yet, still growing up after being a wild teenager.