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It doesn't matter in sunny California etc, I know, but here's some winter testing results from Finland.

"Cheap Chinese the worst

At the other extreme is the BYD Dolphin, which TM left completely without stars. The Chinese manufacturer's compact electric car model recently received the title of Europe's best car purchase .

- I don't like to go on a winter highway with a Dolphin, because the suspension wobbles, the lane guard who sees non-existent paces the steering is bad anyway, and the headlights are bad. The numbness of the steering also causes challenges for controllability, says TM in its final evaluation.

The magazine states that the Dolphin can also do well in winter driving, but it is good to be aware of the car's limitations.

The other Chinese car in the test, the MG 4, did not shine, but it was not hit as badly as in the Swedish Vi Bilägare's test, where the testers called it "downright dangerous". According to Swedes, MG was also a cool car, but TM did not notice a similar problem and gave the heating device a rating of 8.

According to TM, driving the car on the road was sometimes nerve-wracking and the MG was also the only car in the group that failed the emergency braking test in the dark. The car simply could not, despite many attempts, perform independent emergency braking and sometimes did not recognize the obstacle at all. MG's result was two stars.

Of course, it's also worth noting that the cheapest of the test cars were MG and BYD, which are under 35,000 euros, with the winning Germans being the most expensive." (Google translated version:)

 
FSD 12.3 now going to non-employees:

FSD V12 (end to end AI)

I know some are considering bouncing out of TSLA right now as the price is depressed (not a good time to sell an investment!) but a warning:

This may all happen much sooner than previous development pace might imply. As James Douma recently mentioned, we are going to start seeing rapid reductions in interventions. Order(s) of magnitude more miles per intervention.

Nobody knows when the market will start recognizing that FSD is close. Take rate will go up, margins will improve, and TSLA might start recognizing the value of FSD at any moment.

You don’t want to miss this train.
 
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Regarding Fisker, there is apparently some Youtube drama behind it:
it started with this video by Marques

Long story short: Marques wanted a Fisker car to review, they didn't want to give it, he found a dealer, Fisker found out he got a car and freaked out. They said the car needed a OTA update and wait for a week, than it said it needed a technician on the spot for 5 hours. Marques didn't wait and reviewed the car with a excoriating review and now it has 4.5 million views. I also think Fisker contacted the dealer but he recorded the conversation and it's now on TikTok, so crisis management went down the drain.

Keep in mind: Marques is probably the biggest tech Youtuber out there, he drives a Model S ("Apollo"), has a Solar roof and recently drove the Cybertruck. He's trying them all.
 
The one belwo says BYD has some good sales number in Brazil, Malaysia, and Thiland. Tesla cannot compete at all. If Northern American open the market to BYD, Tesla will lose to the extent that it couldn't find which way is North.
LOL of course they would say that.

Here’s a list of the successful Chinese car companies in North America (that didn’t start out as non-Chinese and then get bought out by them, aka Volvo/Geely):

1.
 
FSD 12.3 now going to non-employees:

FSD V12 (end to end AI)

I know some are considering bouncing out of TSLA right now as the price is depressed (not a good time to sell an investment!) but a warning:

This may all happen much sooner than previous development pace might imply. As James Douma recently mentioned, we are going to start seeing rapid reductions in interventions. Order(s) of magnitude more miles per intervention.

Nobody knows when the market will start recognizing that FSD is close. Take rate will go up, margins will improve, and TSLA might start recognizing the value of FSD at any moment.

You don’t want to miss this train.

The problem is that James (and others like him) has been saying that exact same thing for literally years.

No one believes any of their predictions due to the constant failed predictions of the past.
 
Good conversation with Herbert and others discussing the absolutely amazing Figure/ Open AI bot demo.
I must say, there will definitely be competition for the Tesla bot. That figure01 bot looks very expensive but also very impressive. Hopefully Tesla can get the AI there. I’m less enthusiastic now about the Teslabot being a windfall for Tesla due to the AI not being there. The folding clothes demo was neat for dexterity but now seems a joke compared to that figure01 video. FSD/robotaxi cannot come soon enough.
 
Texas has gone from sightings of 100 CTs at a time to 300:
This is a seemingly a flawless ramp of a new model, in a new segment, happening right now, and the media are just ignoring it. I wonder how many sales it will take for wall st to notice? 50,000? 100,000?

Received an email invite for the Cybertruck offer for shareholders yesterday. Though I qualify, it wouldn't be a comfortable purchase until after at least a teeny weeny little doubling of the SP.

Fortunately, over the past few years I have accrued some experience in patiently waiting... 😄
 
Texas has gone from sightings of 100 CTs at a time to 300:
This is a seemingly a flawless ramp of a new model, in a new segment, happening right now, and the media are just ignoring it. I wonder how many sales it will take for wall st to notice? 50,000? 100,000?
Has anyone tried to infer the daily production rate? 300 sighted on a parking lot says little about the ramp, does it?
 
The problem is that James (and others like him) has been saying that exact same thing for literally years.

No one believes any of their predictions due to the constant failed predictions of the past.
I don't remember James ever saying that interventions were about to go down rapidly.

What I remember James saying was that Tesla would keep iterating and get there eventually. I think James' tone has changed.

And that makes sense given that Tesla, with massively beefed-up compute, has been able to implement an end-to-end architecture. That's the secret sauce. That's the thing that makes V12 far more likely to make rapid progress we have never seen before.
 
Has anyone tried to infer the daily production rate? 300 sighted on a parking lot says little about the ramp, does it?
Every truck has an owner, so I doubt they are going to leave them in a parking lot for more than a day. I think even a day seems a long time. But regardless of the logistics, until recently it was max sightings of 100. Unless you think there was a major logistics screwup and they built up a 3 day backlog, I think this bodes well.
Surely someone here is geeky enough to have data on how long a vehicle is in the outbound parking lot at a tesla factory before shipping out? :D
 
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I must say, there will definitely be competition for the Tesla bot. That figure01 bot looks very expensive but also very impressive. Hopefully Tesla can get the AI there. I’m less enthusiastic now about the Teslabot being a windfall for Tesla due to the AI not being there. The folding clothes demo was neat for dexterity but now seems a joke compared to that figure01 video. FSD/robotaxi cannot come soon enough.

I have a hunch the AI for Optimus will progress at a much faster rate than FSD has been doing. From an AI point of view Optimus is an "easier" problem than FSD. Figure One's rapid progress is proof of that, and Tesla's engineers coupled with Grok development at X means Optimus has all the tools needed do eventually do what that awesome Figure demo is doing. It's just a matter of time.

But yeah, Tesla does look like it needs to catch up to Figure. That demo was very impressive as long as it's not staged or faked in some way.
 
Anyone else bouncing back and forth between TMC and a site covering the Starship IFT-3 launch preparations this morning?
I got scammed into watching a “live” SpaceX YouTube video of the launch last night. Went right up to seconds before launch and turned into Musk hawking crypto. I think it’s still up, so beware.
 
I got scammed into watching a “live” SpaceX video of the launch last night. Went right up to seconds before launch and turned into Musk hawking crypto. I think it’s still up, so beware.

Everyday Astronaut on YouTube has a great live stream of the launch right now. He does good coverage.

On topic though, pre market for TSLA is not looking great today. 😥
 
I have a hunch the AI for Optimus will progress at a much faster rate than FSD has been doing. From an AI point of view Optimus is an "easier" problem than FSD. Figure One's rapid progress is proof of that, and Tesla's engineers coupled with Grok development at X means Optimus has all the tools needed do eventually do what that awesome Figure demo is doing. It's just a matter of time.

But yeah, Tesla does look like it needs to catch up to Figure. That demo was very impressive as long as it's not staged or faked in some way.
Yes that Figure-1 video yesterday was amazing.