I'm fairly sure we'll see either price or PE compression for TSLA this year, and maybe even in 2025. We'll see some growth for Tesla in 2024 but I suspect much lower than most want. TSLA is going to look very unappealing compared to the rest of the Mag 7, in many ways it's performance compared to those other stocks already shows this.
Now, long term, TSLA will be fine and we'll pass our ATH eventually. I simply don't see any catalysts coming in 2024 (and most of 2025) which would qualify to do that though:
- CT won't contribute to revenues substantially until mid-late 2025.
- Semi volume production is still a year or more away from starting.
- FSD is still in beta and Level 5 is still very much an unknown.
- Gen3 isn't going into production until late 2025 at the earliest.
- Production ramp on M3 and MY will be lower than usual for 2024 (and probably 2025 too).
- Margins are low and though they might rise a bit in 2024 we won't be seeing our old margins back anytime soon.
- Our next factory, Giga Mexico, is still 1-2 years from any kind of production starting up.
The few shining lights on our dim short term road could be:
- Megapacks might scale quicker than most expect and could help the fundamentals.
- Optimus progress seems promising, if the market wakes up to the Tesla Bot's potential it could boost TSLA.
- FSD is v12 now, full learning AI, so progress from here on out might accelerate. Maybe. Possibly.
In short I really do think we are in for a year or two of TSLA trading sideways between $150-$250. Long term TSLA will easily pass our ATH of $415 and probably get up to (or surpass) $1000, probably sometime around 2030 or so I'd think.
TSLA share holders can either hold on for the ride or get off the train. Honestly I can't blame anyone for selling TSLA if they lose confidence, HOLDing through the rough periods isn't easy and I'd be lying if I said I hadn't considered selling all my TSLA and going all in on NVDA. It's tempting and much more promising in the short term. I still have faith in Tesla's long term vision though, I think it will one day be the largest company by market cap in the world, so I'm HOLDing.
I might come to regret that one day, but I don't think I will.