CT will almost certainly retain a much better profit margin.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
GhostSkater
Member
I'd hope so at 100 and 120k for the only available trims.
That is an insanely slow ramp if true. Elon said it, I just don't think anyone thought it would be that slow.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Who says the CT ramp is "super slow" ? Do you have data on that? "Super-slow" compared to what? It's my understanding that Ford F-150 Lightning production, after 1.5yrs work by "big boy" Ford, is less than what the Cybertruck is right now.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
why would you assume flat earnings in 2024 when Tesla cuts auto COGS consistently by 2% each quarter, and nearly 9% over the course of 2023?
And you just plain wrong about "declining growth". That's not even a thing on the Income Statement. Deliveries will increase while COGS decrease, and line utilization will approach its design maxium. That's where profits are maximized, and why ramping factories is expensive.
That's NOT "declining earnings". Tesla earnings will increase substantially in 2024 due to operational leverage.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
These geeks sure come alive when they talk the game of pennies...
They just said they are almost sold out of what they can produce in 2024. From Sawyer Merritt and CT forum gathering data, they aren't even close to 10k orders.
That's really slow. The initial estimates of 30-50k in year 1 were extremely slow.
Elon said the CT ramp is extremely slow, maybe 15 times.
they just spent 15 minutes talking about their ability to remove cost is limited now. Declining growth was specified in the earnings release because they are "in between waves" What tailwind do you see for them in terms of earnings if volume doesn't grow much in this period? Their earnings are literally getting smaller quarter over quarter and they admitted for 2024 their growth will be smaller...so if I am putting on my Wall Street hat, aren't we paying a premium for growth here? We are 2 years out from NG model and more than that for Optimus?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
They said both in the Q4 deck and multiple times on the call they were near the limits of COGS reductions on existing vehicles (presumably ex-CT>Semi)
Again, both the deck, and Tesla multiple times on the call, says otherwise. Growth will decline at least for 2024 compared to other recent years- likely 2025 as well with next-gen not entering mass production until late that year. 50% CAGR was removed from guidance for the first time in years as Tesla explicitly states they are in a lull between growth waves.
Why do you not believe anything Tesla tells you?
You are insanely overconfident, as usual.
#1 Much of those COGs declines were due to a change in SR / LR mixture.
#2 Assuming similar COGs declines in 2024 is presumptious, in fact they just said on the earnings call NOT to assume that it will continue at the same pace.
#3 There isn't going to be much volume growth relative to Q4. Tesla is *already* near 2 million / year in production. Volume is only going to be 5-10% higher, much of that being on the new product - Cybertruck. There is no substantial increase in operating leverage coming from auto.
So while I believe earnings will be higher in 2024 than 2023, it's only going to be incremental mostly due to Cybertruck and Energy. Both of which could contribute more signficantly, but the data so far indicates only moderate volume growth of revenue of these 2 this year.
So please stop hand-waving magical things happening. You already wrongly implied gross profits didn't decrease.
Stop being so... so... wrong.
That's the max production of the line currently. Elon said they wouldn't hit that rate per month until sometime in 2025 last call.
They just said they are almost sold out and they aren't even to 10k confirmed orders.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Elon still describing Dojo as low probability of success ain't great... reinforces the reports about why the head of it is no longer with company though
cliff harris
Member
Cutting edge chip design is insanely hard, so dojo is likely one of the hardest things Tesla will ever do. There is a good reason nvidia is worth so much.
I'm still happy to have stock in Tesla...with dojo, than Ford, Gm, VW, Toyota, who wouldn't know where to start with chips.
I'm still happy to have stock in Tesla...with dojo, than Ford, Gm, VW, Toyota, who wouldn't know where to start with chips.
Talking about using vehicle fleet idle computers on a crypto style network is cool. Surprising it took this long for it to come up but cool.
But that data is highly suspect. Most people aren't posting their order information on forums or submitting it to surveys...
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