Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

S&P500 closed at a new all time high. Most of the mag7 closed at or near all time high.

TSLA down 49% from all time high.

 

[MC3OZ]

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  The macro environment looks pretty good to me.
  View attachment 1010493

Evidence is a bit mixed with some people still thinking we may have a recession. (Anything could happen in China.)

The macro goes in cycles.

The bigger picture is deflation with Tony Seba and others expecting the price of Energy, Transport, Labour and Food to decline.

In the long run I expect a "deflationary boom" and "abundance", because that is what Tony's price curves are predicting..

Never before in human history has humanity had cheap abundant energy, transport and communications.

Once humanity agrees on what the future will look like, there will be less division, more unity, and a happier society.

Tesla and Elon have had a substantial role in changing the future.. IMO the outcome is inevitable.

 

[Thekiwi]

View attachment 1010502
P/e looks similar for the same 3 year chart. Evaluating future estimates has much wider discrepancies if you just look at p/e.

Eh?

your P/S chart shows it decreasing from ~30x to 7.5x currently (1/4th of what it was)
your P/E chart shows it decreasing from ~1400x to 68x currently (under 1/20th of what it was)

The magnitude of those changes is very different.

But showing price to sales is meaningless without any context of what the margins are on those sales at any given point.

 

[EVMeister]

S&P500 closed at a new all time high. Most of the mag7 closed at or near all time high.

TSLA down 49% from all time high.

All Elon's fault. amirite?

 

[Max Plaid]

S&P500 closed at a new all time high. Most of the mag7 closed at or near all time high.

TSLA down 49% from all time high.

Shite happens

 

[Thekiwi]

All Elon's fault. amirite?

Fundamentals deteriorated. Shrinking margins, slowdown in unit growth, reduced forward earnings expectations.

There are now 6 years remaining before we reach 2030 and Elon’s stated goal of 20 million annual vehicle run rate. That is a lot of work needed in the next 24 quarters to hit that target by building 10x the vehicle production capacity currently operating.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Only 14.14% down the past month? Could have sworn it was way worse than that based on all the negative news. Oh well, ready for the fireworks next week, hopefully in the right direction.

 

[2daMoon]

Fundamentals deteriorated. Shrinking margins, slowdown in unit growth, reduced forward earnings expectations.

Let me get this right, the best selling car on the planet for 2023 won that accolade while Tesla was experiencing a slowdown in unit growth?

Not sure what kind of math you have to smoke to come up with that.

Looking forward to whatever is going to happen once we get through this awful slowdown.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Let me get this right, the best selling car on the planet for 2023 won that accolade while Tesla was experiencing a slowdown in unit growth?

Not sure what kind of math you have to smoke to come up with that.

Looking forward to whatever is going to happen once we get through this awful slowdown.

Is Thekiwi really toni sacconaghi in disugise?

 

[Thekiwi]

Let me get this right, the best selling car on the planet for 2023 won that accolade while Tesla was experiencing a slowdown in unit growth?

Not sure what kind of math you have to smoke to come up with that.

Looking forward to whatever is going to happen once we get through this awful slowdown.

“Let me get this right, the best selling car on the planet for 2023 won that accolade while Tesla was experiencing a slowdown in unit growth?”

Those two things are both true. Model Y was the best selling car, and tesla experienced a slowdown in its growth.

Do you not know how numbers work?

Model Y can be the best selling car again this year without any unit growth whatsoever.

 

[GOVA]

S&P500 closed at a new all time high. Most of the mag7 closed at or near all time high.

TSLA down 49% from all time high.

TSLA 1,722.94% UP since we all know when.

 

[Singuy]

Fundamentals deteriorated. Shrinking margins, slowdown in unit growth, reduced forward earnings expectations.

There are now 6 years remaining before we reach 2030 and Elon’s stated goal of 20 million annual vehicle run rate. That is a lot of work needed in the next 24 quarters to hit that target by building 10x the vehicle production capacity currently operating.

I argue that Tesla's management was on point.

They took massive advantage of times when there was chip shortages/gas price hysteria and made a boat load of cash while relentlessly reducing cost every way possible, and had refreshes in the works as Tesla hit 2 million units. They suspect that there will be a time when fundamental deteriorates, as Elon warned us a year ago that there will be a storm Tesla needs to get past.

As fundamentals for Tesla deteriorates, notice how competitor's fundamentals deteriorates much more because they were not prepared for this. There's a reason why every EV maker's stock are down 5-8% a day while Tesla is down a few percentage points.

But Elon did guide that after the storm Tesla will be positioned to do well. It's a company set up to make money off all the products they sell. Super chargers are packed and it's 5x the size vs 2019. Tesla insurance should be selling a boat load. FSD take rate may materially increased as we see higher volume being pushed. Energy will continue to grow now that production ramped much more than q1 of this year. So we will see but it's looking like Tesla will have less and less competitors as EV companies are heading for potential BK.

 

[Musskiah]

Last time stock closed in red 5 straight weeks in a row was in May, 2021. it bottomed that week at $182.33 from a high of $260.26 almost 6 weeks prior and then rallied to $414.50 over next 24 weeks
if we close this week in red, which we most likely will, then last high was $265.13 , four weeks prior and low $207.56

Other periods of 5 consecutive down weeks:
COVID 2020
May 2019

Both concluded at a local minimum prior to enormous runs. #Bullish

 

[CHGolferJim]

US Sales in units

 

[Musskiah]

At this point, you are either bold faced lying or really shouldn't be providing insight on these sorts of details. It's pretty easy to go look up Tesla's earnings and see:

View attachment 1010494

Gross profits are down. This is before OpEx or CapEx.

Just total nonsense.

True. Your evidence clearly shows, looking in the rearview gross PROFITS have been decreasing. Forward looking, gross PROFITS ought to increase throughout 2024 due to volume increase that should outpace further margin deterioration.

A.D. said gross EARNINGS. EBIT deducts OpEx and the after-effects of CapEx (Depreciation), but it does not deduct CapEx directly. Gross EARNINGS will increase throughout 2024 due to volume increase.

As is often the case, I think two people are partially correct here, depending on whether we are looking backwards or forwards AND whether we are discussing profits or earnings. It's okay for you to both be right.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Defrost your Kiwi from bed | Tesla (1 hr ago)

 

[2daMoon]

US Sales in units

Well, that explains it.
There were zero sales in the last quarter.

/s

 

[CorneliusXX]

Eh?

your P/S chart shows it decreasing from ~30x to 7.5x currently (1/4th of what it was)
your P/E chart shows it decreasing from ~1400x to 68x currently (under 1/20th of what it was)

The magnitude of those changes is very different.

But showing price to sales is meaningless without any context of what the margins are on those sales at any given point.

You mean the P/E isn't still at 1400x? Strange. Emperor Theodosius of the Byzantine empire would only just be getting his investment back now if he had invested at 1400x.

 

[H Mak]

Someone posted on here a couple of weeks ago a quote from Charlie Munger, I think it was. The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting. So let's all just hang in.

In answer to @Unpilot, 70% of my life savings

 

[The Accountant]

For anyone struggling with despair over the SP.
I remember a bunch of times in the past when the company or elon seemed to be a real let down. For me the big ones were:
The pedo guy thing
The first production numbers for the model 3 (as i recall it was laughably lower than expected)
Buying bitcoin
Its NOT EASY being a HODLer of Tesla stock. I have multiple friends who tried to copy my strategy, bought the stock, then sold at a loss. One has done this multiple times, much to my despair. I have never sold a notable amount of the stock, and havent sold a single share in years now.

Over the years I have learned that Tesla is a company that converts faith and patience into huge piles of money for the investors. However, it takes a lot of both to get the conversion to happen! The hardest times are the ones where it seems like nothing is happening. Where is the cybertruck ramp? the 4680 ramp? the semi? where is FSD12? where is actually smart summon?

With Tesla it often does not rain, but it does pour. There is no FSD in China or Europe, and no smart summon, or even autopark. Once FSD12 goes full release, I suspect we will see all of those things in quick succession, maybe even within a single quarter. At the same time, optimus progress will be accelerating.

So stay strong, hold your stock, dont let wall st win by getting you to sell when we are on the verge of a ton of great stuff. In a few months, when cybertruck ramp is visible, Highland M3s are on US roads, and we have an FSD update (or several), this dip in the stock will feel like a distant memory. I suspect there will be another bear attack after earnings, but as usual, the thing to watch is the SP a month after earnings, not during the call or next day. Too easy to manipulate.

Yes - What I have learned by reading posts from those who have done insanely well is that the Successful TSLA Investor is a Patient Investor.
Wealth comes from investing in something undervalued that others have not yet figured out. They'll figure it out in due time.