Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

From the photo, one of two things happened. A run on the chargers while there was no power outage. People didn't navigate to the Supercharger so there was no preconditioning which caused the Superchargers to go into cold battery mode (the distance to the Supercharger might have been so short that it wouldn't make a lot of difference. I've noticed on trips that the first Supercharge in the morning the preconditioning a -3 C doesn't complete by the time I've driven four miles to the Supercharger. Assuming they are locals and don't have home charging, they should pre-warm the car before driving to the Supercharger.). Or a combination. This appears to be a driver education issue because Tesla can't change the physics of battery charging.

Minor nitpick on the underlined section: Superchargers don't. It's the car that knows the pack temp, SOC, charge profile, etc... and commands the supercharger.

In this instance the car knows the pack temp, and only asks the supercharger for what it wants to pre-heat the pack (although I saw an early report for the Model 3 that said it didn't ask the charger for anything while pre-heating, but I'd hope that would be corrected by now to at least let the supercharger supply the few KW needed for pack heating...).

 

[Todd Burch]

In theory, yes. We are very far away from generalized flexibility for even ten different tasks. As a fan of nearly everything Asimov I seriously hope for a Susan Calvin learning from a Robbie.
Realistically there are major advances still to be made when independent short folding is not yet perfected.

Advances will be rapid and impressive, no doubt. Still, ten times the value of specialized robots is a huge stretch. Specialized ones for specific surgeries, for example, command huge margins. Industrial robots of many types also command huge margins. All of those require highly skilled human training to operate effectively.

Now we are postulating that suddenly and soon Optimus will dwarf everything.
If any advance is too good to be true, even for an optimist, it will not happen quickly.

If all you do is surgery, then a specialized surgical robot probably makes sense.

But if you operate a surgical office, then having a bot that can clean the rooms, prep patients for surgery, and then do the surgery itself would make a lot more sense. It all depends on the breadth of the possible automatable tasks.

 

[cab]

...
Boring, repetitive, dangerous, are the job qualities the army of Optimi will target.

So...posting here on the investor thread then?

 

[Cult Member]

Got an Email from Tesla with an ownership experience survey. Among the usual stuff, it did have quite a few questions on how long you usually keep a vehicle, why you are still keeping your vehicle and not buying new (they even asked if it was macro related), what would have to happen (new model etc.) so you´d buy a new one, etc., so IMHO seems like they are trying to figure out reasons for weak sales in Germany in late 2023.

The price reduction in Europe/Germany and the 0.00% offer for Lease and Loan when ordering a Model Y made me think twice this morning. Doing something for Q1 2024 looked very appealing and 2nd to replace our 2019 Model 3 LR AWD in one move without selling any stock. But I always said that I don't need a SUV any more and the upgraded Model 3 is such a hit, that I maybe would regret that decision as soon as I see more of them on the road.
A new TESLA will have to wait until the stock is back to 300 or Model 3 is produced in Berlin. Whatever happens first

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Or more" is still quicker than "two weeks" isn't it?

45-min on L2 to condition the battery in a Model Y LR, cold-soaked at 0°F. I do it at the gym while hot-tubbing...

 

[NicoV]

The big inventory discounts (in Q4) have disappeared with the official price reductions of today (in Belgium). So the margin pressure is probably a lot less than what could be assumed by comparing the old and the new price.

 

[SOULPEDL]

So why is this making national news when in Norway it's no problem? I just had a family friend mention this to me yesterday and now I see it on NPR...Are all these new owners who are not used to the cold weather yet?

https://www.npr.org/2024/01/16/1224913698/teslas-chicago-charging-extreme-cold

The freeze story is on everyone's feed. My wife shared it with me yesterday. It might actually be one story.

I'd like to followup with my story in Yuma when it was 115F and the chargers were only giving a little so there was a line.... ONE TIME. The Chicago News that I saw mentioned how there were only 2 chargers working, so likely a similar situation (plus the cold charging for newbies).

My preference is still to be stranded at 115F vs -40F. You can always pour water over your head to cool. But if your battery dies in the cold, so do you.

Huh... did I say that? OK, unless you are Canadian or Norwegian because all the stupid ones froze to death already.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Overall, this has become a problem during that time and regular media do not help with their ignorance.

As usual, the Media has helped themselves to user's ignorance, to create sensational stories. I like the AI suggestions from the App. That's real info people can use!

Cheers!

 

[2daMoon]

Okay, I'm pulling out all the stops...

Dear Murphy,​

​

I'm poised to transfer shares from my IRA to ROTH and need the SP to be as low as it will go in order to maximize the number of shares that are moved while keeping the dollar amount just below the level of the IRS Standard Deduction.​

​

In order to accomplish this I plan to wait until we reach a current low to do this. (are you listening Murphy?)​

​

Everything about this plan hinges on the SP going lower from here. ​

​

Please let me know you have my back, okay? Show me a sign.​

​

Sincerely, and with warmest regards, your lifelong admirer,​

​

2daMoon​

 

[AndrewZ]

The big inventory discounts (in Q4) have disappeared with the official price reductions of today (in Belgium). So the margin pressure is probably a lot less than what could be assumed by comparing the old and the new price.

Not sure about Belgium but it sounds like financing costs are being reduced in Germany as well, 0% financing on new vehicles and financing costs being eaten on leases

 

[insaneoctane]

In for my first grazing of TSLA in 2024. I only made it 17 days . Look, it's NOT a problem if RSI is below 30, right? Right?

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Boring, repetitive, dangerous" So...posting here on the investor thread then?

'Dangerous' is over in the Wheel thread...

 

[unk45]

For Q4, only one ship(the last one) was affected by Suez Canal ...

Q1 was the time that most disruption happened. The effects have been on supplies as well as vehicles although most attention is on vehicles, remember that Grüne Heide had the two week closure due to supply chain disruptions. Those are NOT diminishing as time passes.

 

[Artful Dodger]

5 years ago...

... Elon was tongue-wrestling with the $EC, and the SP bottomed out at $12 (split-adjusted). At least that's behind us now, right?

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

There are fewer moving objects piloted by people who occasionally make bad decisions in a kitchen ..... hopefully....

Boring, repetitive and dangerous tasks are where Optimus will initially clock on...

Washing the dishes, peeling potatoes, telling the Gangster that the kitchen has run out of steak..

I can see a lot of Optimus Robots working in controlled environments in Tesla factories, and deciding not to join a union.....

Once Tesla has run out of jobs for Optimus to do, then they may start leasing them, or selling them.

Kitchen is all sound and fury. Networked bots directly hooked up to the table orders not so much. "precision" onion slicing with Optimus now maybe a couple of days training data, then available for instant cloning.

 

[unk45]

I thought the same thing. After living 40 years in PA, I well remember how many times your car battery totally died with the first cold front. You come out in the morning, and click, click, click....dead. But, of course, no mention of this cold front's affect on ICE cars.

Not to mention the necessity for engine block heaters; I remember those whenever I think of very cold weather. OTOH, EV drivers do need to think of preconditioning prior to charging, something rarely discussed for new EV drivers.

 

[unk45]

If all you do is surgery, then a specialized surgical robot probably makes sense.

But if you operate a surgical office, then having a bot that can clean the rooms, prep patients for surgery, and then do the surgery itself would make a lot more sense. It all depends on the breadth of the possible automatable tasks.

I agree. The question is not demand, but when the technology can advance to the point that even the mundane cleaning operations can be done by a non-human. The multiplicity of routine documention that could be done robotically is also very large. It varies in detail around the world but not too much in quantity and content. This is just one tiny example, itself huge.

I just return to the basic question: when?

 

[Usain]

I'm less certain on my view of regulatory credits. Tesla recognizes credits when they are sold (not when they are earned). So they can accumulated credits and decide when to sell them to generate revenue. Since Q2 was $282m and Q3 was $554m, I am guessing that they sold much of their earned credits in Q3 and have less to sell in Q4 but I have no evidence for this.

I tend to think of reg credits as just a matter of supply and demand. Tesla will accumulate a ton of credits in any given quarter. Then (in theory) it sells them on the open market to the highest bidder.

There are just too many factors from too many automakers to predict how much credits revenue Tesla will be able to generate. But you know the ballpark.

The interesting thing about regulatory credits is that most people (including me) thought revenue from regulatory credits would have dried up by now. But every quarter there is this nice line item with a few hundred million in it. It's less and less significant as a percent of overall revenue, but it has been a very reliable source of icing on the cake.

 

[Todd Burch]

I agree. The question is not demand, but when the technology can advance to the point that even the mundane cleaning operations can be done by a non-human. The multiplicity of routine documention that could be done robotically is also very large. It varies in detail around the world but not too much in quantity and content. This is just one tiny example, itself huge.

I just return to the basic question: when?

Totally agree. Which is why I think for the next few years Optimus will be limited to doing tasks within Tesla (or other Elon companies) while they prove it out and figure out how to get Optimus to handle multiple tasks. This means Tesla will likely see little direct revenue from Optimus (maybe only from other Elon companies) for the next few years, although we could *possibly* see margins start climbing as Tesla hires less and less people for factory work and bots start working the factory floor.

 

[hobbes]

Don't think you read my post. It's main point was why teleoperation is a good thing.

Optimus can to teleportation??!!?

EDIT: Sorry, misread