Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
They eat Börse in Berlin: (but don't celebrate MLK's b/d)
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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They eat Börse in Berlin: (but don't celebrate MLK's b/d)
But they do celebrate Martin Luther Day, aka Reformation Day, in Germany. In November.
The Tesla one is at least two weeks away...
powertoold
Active Member
GhostSkater
Member
This is coming from someone who never sold a single share (other than a fraction of one long ago to buy a single share of GME, but we don’t talk about that)
If you needed to sell a significant amount in the 1 to 3 months window, uncertain for now, what strategy would you guys do? Just sell the amount you need and be done with it? Wait for earnings, with the small possibility of having to sell less shares, or more lol
Spread around the sells daily, weekly?
Doesn’t matter much, while it isn’t close to my whole portfolio, it’s a significant amount, maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of it (which honestly isn’t much because I’m a tiny fish)
If you needed to sell a significant amount in the 1 to 3 months window, uncertain for now, what strategy would you guys do? Just sell the amount you need and be done with it? Wait for earnings, with the small possibility of having to sell less shares, or more lol
Spread around the sells daily, weekly?
Doesn’t matter much, while it isn’t close to my whole portfolio, it’s a significant amount, maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of it (which honestly isn’t much because I’m a tiny fish)
1. If everytime the Tesla stock drops it is due to manipulation and not because of fundamental issues, like price reductions and production stops, then just thank Mr Market for being irrational. If the market was always fully rational, i.e. efficient, buying anything but an index fund would be a totally pointless exercise.
2. "Watching" the market or some YouTuber is hardly the best way to understand how its actors work. That could easily lead to starting with a thesis and then just - unconsciously or not - trying to find patterns that support that thesis. Why not simply ask some people who actually work on Wall Street?
I was just talking to my friends and they think other companies and especially China will have FSD shortly after Tesla solves it because of corporate espionage. From what I understand is they can’t steal the data to train the AI because Tesla would have that on offline servers? However, could they steal the already trained FSD AI from the Tesla cars and use that software in their cars?
IMO it is pretty much a NO on both counts...
I'm fairly sure V12 of FSD will have different training data sets for different countries, for starters road sighs and lane markings can be different. There can also be subtle differences in driving styles between countries and LHD/RHD.
The Tesla software run on the Tesla FSD computer and is compiled for that hardware, anyone stealing the software would also need to reverse engineer the hardware and probably have a similar camera arrangement,.
Out of all the things Tesla is doing FSD is IMO by far the hardest for competitor to copy.
48V and Etherloop is also hard to copy quickly, but given 1-2 years that can a be done....
I will not be surprised if it is 5 years before a competitor has a Robotaxi version of FSD, even Tesla might not have that in 2024. It is taking a long time because it is a hard problem, and it requires a lot of data.
The only advantage a competitor has now is they know the final end goal, but step one is capturing enough data.
Hypothetically if a competitor could steal all of Tesla data for a particular country, that would save them a lot of time., especially if they also had an idea of how the NN architecture worked.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Not advice: could sell Calls at the price you'd be willing to accept if they execute. Use those funds to buy Puts to lock in the amount the capital you'll need in your time frame. If the SP goes up and down, you may be hooped, you'll have to watch and react. Should really ask over in "the Wheel" thread.
Spread it around is what I would do. My account does not support options. But I sometimes get helpful info on timing my sales from that other thread.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Just stealing the neural net (NN) won't help. With FSD v12 "end-to-end", the NN is trained on the hardware. That means without the exact same set of sensors, geometry, latency, and control / actuators, the NN will drive the way you walk coming out of the optometrist with a new set of glasses. Or, the same reason a 13-yr-old is clumsy: that's not the same body they learned to walk in. Without Dojo on the backend to train new NNs, FSD isn't ever going to work acceptably on different HDW.
As mentioned above, that would only work if they can also perfectly clone the car from which they stole the NN. And then it'd be pretty obvious who the pirates are. v12 is a different approach for Tesla FSD, because it nolonger depends upon the "occupancy network" to create a 3-D model of the world.
In theory, an Agent could drive in the 3-D world (with latency issues) so that approach could be stolen, which is one of the reasons I think Tesla made the architecture change. Again, stealing v12's NN will be like stealing another man's shoes: uncomfortable, and dangerous when it's slippery out.
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I have no idea the proportion of cash buyers now, the last data of 2019 IIRC was about 60% of Tesla sales were cash buyers. That 60%, though includes some buyers who had non-chattel financing, generally a very small percentage. Even in markets in which company cars are dominant, those Tesla sales often are not defined as financed or leased.
Thanks. Do you think they could steal the AI fsd for that country and then use it one their cars. That’s if they reversed engineered the hardware and put the cameras in the same placement?
Such provocation has been happening for decades. Don’t forget that several parts of the Arabian/Persian Gulf have been disputed between Iran and several UAE Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait. For once the Wiki is correct:IIRC, Iran also harassed two (?) merchant marine vessels in the Gulf of Oman recently.
Hopefully things won't get so dicey that Shanghai production meant for Europe has to route via Panama.
Much the same reasons. Marine insurance is rapidly rising or non-existent in these areas, so Qatar natural gas, Kuwaiti and Saudi exports are impeded, as Is all Asian/Europe shipping via Suez. At a minimum Tesla vehicle exports and parts supplies are severely restricted. These events are also making demand for even other routes is becoming more expensive and less reliable because of greatly increased ship demand because of longer trips and less reliable due in part by weather disruption on the longer routes.
This greatly influences economic uncertainty for Europe, China and worldwide trade. Coincidently, all petroleum markets will be negatively affected for some time. Geopolitical risk rises commensurately, exacerbated by the Israeli Gaza war. Tesla may not suffer more severely than will others, but markets may well think it so.
For context:
Just consider how much impact this has on Tesla logistics, primarily between Shanghai and Europe.
Reverse engineering the hardware would not be easy....
With just one version of FSD it would be 'frozen in time", it would require more data and more training to make a new version.
Stealing Tesla's FSD IP would be very valuable, I am sure Tesla is aware of that risk..
A competitor might be able to find ways of copying FSD quicker than I think they can...
Most other things including Optimus I can can be copied quicker, and having a product that is nearly as good as Tesla's is sufficient for day 1.
Beside the huge $value required to shift TSLA options, needs to be remembered that $GME was 130% short of the float, but hey, no problem, let's shutdown RH to allow the hedges to recover...
For business a lease is a cost, whereas a purchased car is an asset, different treatment the accounts
I'm sure Franz could fix that in a jiffy!
Just the initial impact of the +9 days, after that it becomes steady-state
Nothing wrong with my TMX btw
Really? Mine is terrible for rattles/creaks over bumps, and Tesla seem unable to do anything about it
Normally I would suggest selling calls rather than shares, but right now is not the moment for that either, unless you also have a good cash pile, the you could sell September 270 straddles at $80 a go ($8000 per paired contract)
You can be sure that there are many big fish really want TSLA to finish close to $220 next week for the big OPEX. However it's also fair to say that Tesla themselves have provided plenty of free ammunition to help lower the price to that point
Uhm, selling calls and buying puts doesn't liberate any cash though, and down here isn't the best place to be selling calls either right now - not that this stops me, of course, but I'm a degenerate
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
It was even worse than that: retail investors were barred from buying $GME but they were allowed to sell it. This broke the back of the short squeeze, since it was an one-way rachet, condoned by both the Market and the SEC. This episode did take out hedge fund Melvin Capital, even after a $2.75B cash injection from Citadel and Point72.
Congress responded by holding hearings (which found nothing, changed nothing). The SEC took action against a dozen social media influencers (who in their view were the problem). And thus the system was preserved unchanged. They preserved their unchallenged right to short sell more shares than exist in a company, and ultimately to prevent others from buying while they cover. Supply'n'Demand? That's for the rabble, not the rulers. Dispicable. Literal despots.
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