Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

That's ignoring exports to the rest of Europe and Taiwan.
One country for one month is a data point, not a trend.

To be clear, when I was talking about an anticlimactic year I was talking about Europe as a whole.
See the numbers:

Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats

This wiki belongs to the thread EU Market situation and outlook. Click HERE (CTRL-click to open in new tab) to add new data using a Google form. Any forum member can contribute. We encourage you to do so! Your entry will appear after the data is double-checked by other volunteers. If the data...

teslamotorsclub.com

Germany is more than anticlimactic: it's disappointing.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Recently I have read a number of comments on how 'rubbish/disappointing' the EQS is which surprised me as all the reviews I've seen of it rave about it as the best luxury EV available.

Please enlighten me as to its failings!

Thanks

Yes please do, I have driven the EQS and came away impressed with its ride, quietness and sound system.

 

[AndrewZ]

Ouch, down 30% in pre market trading for mobileye (MBLY). Based on weak ‘24 guidance due to inventory glut.

Anybody know who they sell to? Is it just Waymo now that Cruise is sinking?

Mobileye Stock Crashes On Weak Year-Ahead Outlook

Mobileye warned that 2024 sales will be below estimates because of excess inventory at its customers. MBLY stock crashed on the news.

www.investors.com

Mobileye is in a ton of vehicles around the world, they provide the Level 2 systems for a whack of companies and were partnered with Tesla back in the original AP1 days before they went their separate ways.

I don’t think they’re involved with either Waymo or Cruise but could be wrong

 

[mongo]

Didn't the government abruptly cut a €4,500 subsidy in December - making all EVs more expensive?

Yeah, although Tesla offered to cover the difference.
Tesla Digs Deep After Germany Ends EV Subsidies

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I see a roll cage. What other non-production mods were made?

Nitrous, the big bottles.

 

[phantasms]

I see a roll cage. What other non-production mods were made?

Porsches, because awesome, are available with factory roll cages outside the USA.

 

[FireMedic]

Yes please do, I have driven the EQS and came away impressed with its ride, quietness and sound system.

I was impressed with all those things and the exterior aesthetics, as well as the quality of the materials and especially the seats.

My problem was the pricing (value) and the tech which seems to be extremely weak, especially the Mercedes assistant (à la Siri). Which you have to use because the steering wheel itself is a button bonanza with 42 buttons. It would take forever to figure out what’s what.

Six months later, my sons running joke if nobody is listening to him is to say “hey Mercedes”. He knows we’ll laugh and then respond.

I was also disappointed with the dealer experience that I had; they may have been judging me based on the model X that I showed up in; but they were not interested in selling that car to me (nor was I interested in buying it).

I really enjoyed when the sales person told me that the reason they included the engine noise feature was because the engineers “wanted it to sound like a real car”, I pretty much checked out at that point. Those were his actual words.

 

[scaesare]

That is how I see things, but IMO Gen3 could eventually be 5 different Models with sales of up to 12 Million per year.

But overall, this is about the right number of Models especially if Gen3 is a number of Models.

Dropping Model S/X now or anytime soon would do nothing for the mission and would likely reduce Tesla profits, as far as we know there is still some margin being made on these vehicles,

Elon's frustration with Model S/X could be that Tesla doesn't have the engineering resources, and can't justify the tooling investment to make Model S/X as good as they could be.

• Cybertruck, Gen3 and Optimus are obviously a higher priority.
• Model 3 Highland and Model Y Juniper are higher priority.
• The Semi is higher priority.
• Megapack and 4680 are higher priority.

Model S/X and Roadster are low down the priority list because other products are more important both in terms of the mission and revenue.

I think there are only sufficient 18650 cells available to make around 65,000 Model S/X per year. We might find that new cells/packs are needed for the Roadster and these can also be used in Model S/X. Fremont could eventually make 100,000-120,000 Model S/X.

if RHD can be supported in good economics times Tesla can possibly sell 100,000 Model S/X worldwide per year.

Front and rear castings would be problematic for Model S/X due to lower production volumes, In the long run Tesla may find a way on sharing casting machines or using an old casting machine that is replaced.

The good news is Etherloop, 48V architecture, 800V charging, V2H, and steer-by-wire all seem like possible upgrades to Model S/X when resources are available and this will enable RHD sales.

As for castings, new battery, packs, and new cell types, the best hope for any development in that area is the Roadster.

What have you seen that indicates "Elon's frustration with Model S/X"?

 

[GhostSkater]

Hey kids, are you ready for some healthy speculation? If so, please grab your tinfoil hat and buckle up

I have two conflicting theories on Cybertruck battery pack and 4680 development that the last bit of info from Joe helped makes sense

I took a break from X/Reddit over the holidays so there might be more relevant info that I missed

1 - Cybertruck will achieve 500 miles of range WITHOUT the range extender or number of cells increase:

When Drew was taking (on Munro video I think) about cells, pack size, range extender he said “Our goal is to achieve 500 miles of range”

Now to the why I think it might not have include the range extender. Currently the Dual Motor Cybertruck is said to have a 123 kWh pack and rated at 340 miles with H/T tires (320 with A/T ones), if we take the leak/rumor from Joe as true and to the most optimistic improvement of 20%, this becomes 408 miles and 147.6 kWh

Now, as far as we know, 4680s still don’t use Tesla Silicon, Drew also confirmed (somewhere) that there was no chemistry changes between 4680 gen 1 and gen 2

A heavy loading of Silicon, which Tesla hopes to achieve by using a Polymer binding to avoid the possible reduction of cycle life, can easily increase energy density by another 20%, bringing it to 177 kWh and 490 miles of range

Now, another data point to cross check the above, at Battery Day, the energy density of a 2170 Model 3/Y cell was around 270 Wh/kg. 4680s Gen 1 were at 244 Wh/kg and Gen 2 at 267 Wh/kg

With the new cells changes plus addition of Tesla Silicon, this might become 385 Wh/kg

From Battery Day slides, the range increase ignoring vehicle integration was predicted as 40%, meaning that the energy density would go from 270 Wh/kg to 378 Wh/kg, pretty close

So my overall theory is that the Range Extender won’t exist, it’s just a place holder to make people happy without disclosing that a more energy dense battery is coming and those who order/ordered the extender will get the battery pack replaced by one with Gen 3 or Gen 4 4680s (maybe 5?). 2024 seems too soon for that, but who knows

Now to the second theory

2 - Currently shipped Cybertrucks have the Gen 1 4680s

This would explain the poor charging curve, would mean that Texas indeed had line 1 producing Gen 1 cells or that they stockpiled a lot from Kato, which would make sense since it doesn’t seem to me many 4680 Model Y in the wild

Now the question becomes, is the pack really 123 kWh but more cells than we predicted? The pack configuration that other and I calculated fitted perfectly with 123 kWh, so that is going to be different

If the pack has the number of cells that we predicted with Gen 2 cells, it means it has less than 123 kWh, it would be closer to 112 kWh. If it has 123 kWh, this means that with Gen 2 the energy would have a nice boost

This would be weird and a blow to early adopters, who are paying a lot more for a significantly worse product, so I rate it as unlikely, but worth discussing

Cheers

 

[growler23]

Auto makers pay Tesla $8 billion to purchase BEV credits:

https://frontiergroup.org/articles/automakers-could-have-learned-to-build-evs-they-paid-tesla-to-do-it-instead/

Excellent article; nice accessible overview of the recent history. Worth noting that that $8 billion is the total over a decade or so of ZEV and other regulatory credits.
This reminds me: we saw an outstanding article about Altman-Z (financial corporate health) scores for the various automakers* a year or so ago. Now that it is 2024, has anyone released a similar study for how they fared in 2023? Or do we need to wait for all Q4 earnings calls first?
I _very much_ want to see how those scores have developed over the past year, mostly for the non-Tesla companies.

* To head off protest - yes Tesla is more than an automaker, and more so every year, but they are categorized mainly as such in the financial press right now for the purposes of this discussion.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Spoiler: Is TSLA a buy at 233? (In case I get the itch)

View attachment 1005513

Just remember, they are aiming for 216ish based on Papafox's calculations.

The lower bollinger band is at 233.28 and could potentially cause a bounce if the stock hits it.

TSLA strong, tricked us all. Can't complain, next time
Edit: Macro returns, HODL.

 

[scaesare]

It was tried and failed to charge. (They took some trim off of the Cybertruck so that the adapter would fit.)

I think they only tried one EVgo site, but they have plans to try more.

But really, is there any reason for Tesla to have CCS enabled when they don't yet make an adapter that fits? (And is rated for 1000v.) I'm sure just like Autosteer, CCS support will come "soon."

It will be more interesting when they show if it works at a non-Tesla NACS site, which they have plans to do. So, expect a lot of "FUD" from people when it gets reported that the Cybertruck won't charge on a NACS charger. (CCS and NACS use the same protocol, so since CCS doesn't work there is no reason to think that NACS would.)

I generally agree, but one minor clarification: Although two systems may use the same protocol (ISO 15118 with digital communications via PLC for the physical layer in this case), the data encapsulated and sent via that protocol could determine if a car will accept a charge. It's much the same way that 2 computers my both use the same TCP/IP network protocol, but refuse a session if one end indicates it doesn't support the proper cipher, etc...

So, it's entirely possible the Cybertruck would reject a charger that identifies itself as one older/unsupported (CCS only) will fail to charge, whereas one that identifies as newer/NACS-compliant will...

 

[scaesare]

I see a roll cage. What other non-production mods were made?

According to another article I read, it's not even in production yet.. name and performance specs not even finalized yet.

Although I suspect they'll release it such that it bests the current Plaid time...

 

[FreqFlyer]

Look at that!!!! Sex on wheels!!!!!!

Model Y refresh!!!

Edit:
This could be a fake. Wait for verification

View attachment 1005757View attachment 1005758
View attachment 1005757
View attachment 1005759

Some are stating this is a fake.

 

[ChiefRollo]

Hey kids, are you ready for some healthy speculation? If so, please grab your tinfoil hat and buckle up

I have two conflicting theories on Cybertruck battery pack and 4680 development that the last bit of info from Joe helped makes sense

I took a break from X/Reddit over the holidays so there might be more relevant info that I missed

1 - Cybertruck will achieve 500 miles of range WITHOUT the range extender or number of cells increase:

When Drew was taking (on Munro video I think) about cells, pack size, range extender he said “Our goal is to achieve 500 miles of range”

Now to the why I think it might not have include the range extender. Currently the Dual Motor Cybertruck is said to have a 123 kWh pack and rated at 340 miles with H/T tires (320 with A/T ones), if we take the leak/rumor from Joe as true and to the most optimistic improvement of 20%, this becomes 408 miles and 147.6 kWh

Now, as far as we know, 4680s still don’t use Tesla Silicon, Drew also confirmed (somewhere) that there was no chemistry changes between 4680 gen 1 and gen 2

A heavy loading of Silicon, which Tesla hopes to achieve by using a Polymer binding to avoid the possible reduction of cycle life, can easily increase energy density by another 20%, bringing it to 177 kWh and 490 miles of range

Now, another data point to cross check the above, at Battery Day, the energy density of a 2170 Model 3/Y cell was around 270 Wh/kg. 4680s Gen 1 were at 244 Wh/kg and Gen 2 at 267 Wh/kg

With the new cells changes plus addition of Tesla Silicon, this might become 385 Wh/kg

From Battery Day slides, the range increase ignoring vehicle integration was predicted as 40%, meaning that the energy density would go from 270 Wh/kg to 378 Wh/kg, pretty close

So my overall theory is that the Range Extender won’t exist, it’s just a place holder to make people happy without disclosing that a more energy dense battery is coming and those who order/ordered the extender will get the battery pack replaced by one with Gen 3 or Gen 4 4680s (maybe 5?). 2024 seems too soon for that, but who knows

Now to the second theory

2 - Currently shipped Cybertrucks have the Gen 1 4680s

This would explain the poor charging curve, would mean that Texas indeed had line 1 producing Gen 1 cells or that they stockpiled a lot from Kato, which would make sense since it doesn’t seem to me many 4680 Model Y in the wild

Now the question becomes, is the pack really 123 kWh but more cells than we predicted? The pack configuration that other and I calculated fitted perfectly with 123 kWh, so that is going to be different

If the pack has the number of cells that we predicted with Gen 2 cells, it means it has less than 123 kWh, it would be closer to 112 kWh. If it has 123 kWh, this means that with Gen 2 the energy would have a nice boost

This would be weird and a blow to early adopters, who are paying a lot more for a significantly worse product, so I rate it as unlikely, but worth discussing

Cheers

Thank you! I just want to add that key to finalizing / freezing the overall design toward production (to make some self-induced timeline) is the weight and its distribution of the battery. Fast forward to steady state production (at some point in time) the same weight will lead to greater range and dynamic performance. Battery size and weight is the key design input; the design process can’t let its output be the tail that wags the dog.

 

[Joe F]

[snip]

I really enjoyed when the sales person told me that the reason they included the engine noise feature was because the engineers “wanted it to sound like a real car”, I pretty much checked out at that point. Those were his actual words.

After which, he probably drove home in his Ford Fiesta. You know, a real car.

 

[GhostSkater]

Thank you! I just want to add that key to finalizing / freezing the overall design toward production (to make some self-induced timeline) is the weight and its distribution of the battery. Fast forward to steady state production (at some point in time) the same weight will lead to greater range and dynamic performance. Battery size and weight is the key design input; the design process can’t let its output be the tail that wags the dog.

On point, Tesla knew it had to release it and couldn’t wait even longer because of you wait for every improvement it never gets released

Even if Gen 3 / Gen 4 4680s are coming in two weeks (Elon tm)

I’m still in the camp that the range extender is the most non-Tesla in hung Tesla ever “released” which in my personal opinion gives more credibility to the theory that it doesn’t actually exist nor it will

Something that fortifies it more is that if you look at images we got from the factory, parts catalog and etc, it doesn’t seem to be something ready for it to be plugged in without a major retrofit

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Yes please do, I have driven the EQS and came away impressed with its ride, quietness and sound system.

Tesla Bjorn loved the EQS

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Tesla Bjorn loved the EQS

Hates the price

 

[ChiefRollo]

By analogy, S/X demand has more or less plateaued.
3/Y are a lower price point, and therefore in a mature market they will have significantly higher annual sales, but eventually will also plateau. Again I’d be very surprised if Tesla sell 3.8m 3/Y in 2025. (50% for next 2 years).

I think 3/Y growth rate is slowing due to a combination of;
- battery supply constraints
- battery supply constraints pushing towards relatively smaller BEVs
- governments US/Germany/Japan/Korea/China protecting their existing manufacturer (non Tesla) interests.
- decreased public reputation of Elon causing overhang and affecting mass market desirability of 3/Y
- media being threatened by Twitter and therefore pushing back on Elon and that having an effect on Tesla
- high interest rates causing affordability challenges
- continuing hollowing out of middle class in US causing affordability challenges
- significant number of people who stubbornly don’t want an EV and will take a long time to be convinced

Also Elon repeatedly saying things along the lines of “even if a car is infinitely desirable, people won’t buy it unless they can afford it, for many people the 3/Y are too expensive, therefore we need the next gen platform.”
That makes me think Tesla’s internal projections are that the 3/Y sales growth rate will slow quite soon.

I’d love to be wrong.

Thank you for your thoughts. My quick reaction is below:

1. I believe there exists a segment of buyers that have been turned off by Elon’s comment and actions over the years. As there are two sides to every coin, I believe there are some out there appreciating his authenticity even at the expense of dollars. The question is how large are these segments and the net impact on Tesla vehicle adoption. At worst I see a net negative that I would group with the “late EV adopters” segment…which leads to my next thought.
2. To all adoption curves, the late adopters segment commands its place. Its size and timing impact have always been a point of contention. What in your mind has changed recently regarding this segment?
3. As time has become tougher for the mass and the need to stretch the $ becomes more and more top of mind, those who still desire to purchase a new vehicle I believe are acting with a greater sense of practicality. Total cost of ownership [buying (how much to overpay for the product to cover the dealership value add…if any), using (cost of gas vs. electricity…with and w/out home solar), proactive maintenance (mileage driven oil changes and tune-ups), reactive maintenance (sudden death of engine and components of a complex set-up)] vs. total ownership experience (emission, noise, engine rattles, dealerships interactions, needs to upgrade for the latest features, weekly gas station visits) will be more of a thing than ever.
4. Elon’s focus on affordability drives internal innovative efforts toward cost leadership; what Tesla has by design in its favor is vertical integration such that only one entity is allowed to care about profitability, Tesla (vs. every partner legacy automakers have to rely on for the finished product (which also hinders innovation timelines and evergreen efforts).
5. Your other comments I believe are on factors that would affect, if true, the entire personal automotive pie, not just Tesla.

I summary, I believe your point on inflection is a valid one; I struggle with it as well. Just don’t know when Tesla will reach it. Product(s) for other segment(s) will need to be developed and marketed to expand its reach (BYD by the way has many more models to achieve its current sales level). I believe the effort at Tesla is real behind its statement of “focus on high growth in the most cost-efficient manner”. As an investor, it resonates with me. Although I own Tesla products as well and may have come across as part of some cult in these exchanges, I simply like to know a thing or two from personal experience about the companies I invest in…hence Tesla product ownership…and just want to bounce my thoughts off of folks in this forum.