Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Yeah, I've never been that interested in Joe's videos before, but now it's must-see-TV.

Hey Joe, where you goin' with that drone of yours?
Hey Joe, where you goin' with that drone in your hand?

I'm goin' out to shoot some new footage.
Gotta make sure the Cybertruck ramp goes according to plan.

Jimi was the GOAT, in case any of you young'uns don't know what's good.

The Jimi Hendrix Experience - Hey Joe (1967) | LIVE

 

[Nocturnal]

quick explination on why at least 1 powerwall is helpful if you want to power the house with your Cybertruck.

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This extra feature alone makes up for the increased price vs what was suggested at launch. For me at least. I had hoped there would be some nice integration with PW/Gateways and V2H. Tesla gets a lot of credit but I'm not sure people really appreciate how well their ecosystem really works.

If you have a CT it will usually be fairly easy to keep your home running (even without solar) if you are close to a supercharger that has power.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

CT will ship perhaps 0.5M units per year. At $80K each and 30% g.m. that's $12B gross profit, or about +$4/yr EPS. Not too shabby at all.

Now let's do Gen 3: 10.0M units/yr @ $25K and 20% g.m. That's $50B or about $16/share EPS. This is (already) 4x the CT business. Schaweet!

Now, let's do robotaxi: 1st Pass +1M unit each year over year, so 2M in year 2, 10M by yr 10, etc... $17K COGS, and 200% g.m. which is $36K/yr/unit for the lifetime which is perhaps 3-5 years? (lots of assumptions needed for this one, let us know what you got)

Cheers!

Well sure if you use unrealistic assumptions, you'll get unrealistic results. Ignoring sigificant advancements of FSD (hard to predict, could add a few % to 20% gross margins) in future), Cybertruck isn't sustaining 30% gross margins at high volumes, just like every other Tesla car.

20% gross margins is a more realistic goal on ASP of $70-$75k. 8 billion in gross profit, or about $2.4 EPS per year. But that's who knows how many years in the future. What by end of 2024? Let's say they reach 200k/ year run rate in a year from now. At that point and volume, maybe can sustain your numerics temporarily, 30% GM on $80k ASP, generating $1.6 EPS annualized.

$1.6 EPS annualized could mean a $0.4 EPS gross contribution in Q4 2024. Tesla's last quarter's EPS was like $0.6-$0.7. So Cybertruck could actually provide a huge boost to earnings in a year from now even with a net contribution of $0.2 EPS. Combined with Energy earnings growth, I think we will have record earnings in a year from now.

 

[2daMoon]

Now that the cat is out of the bag, where does TSLA go today and by the end of the year? Will the media keep churning out the "Too expensive, too ugly" nonsense?

The length, width, and depth of what can influence the media is something along the lines of applied chaos theory for anyone to calculate with any accuracy.

Because the general population is jaded with and suspicious of the mainstream media's motivations and their product, many of them tend to discount the sensationalism by simply reversing it. i.e.: "If they said this with such enthusiasm, they must be trying to distract us from that" and some even dig a little to find out more about the thing the media isn't saying.

Fortunately, none of that will impact Tesla's ability to perform day in and day out, and to dominate their several fields of expertise in growth of both innovation and production.

In the past with Tesla it has always seemed to me that whenever Wall Street as a whole changes its mind, it is due to some catalyst. In that moment most players are already behind the curve and suddenly playing catch up, hoping to score. When that moment comes it will be a rush to the exits of the burning theater and even those not paying attention will be caught up in the desire to run with the crowd, rather than against it. They like to say, "The trend is your friend," right?

For now, it is a waiting game.

Meanwhile, Tesla continues to build upon a foundation that remains rock-solid. We have the world's best selling car, the hype of the Cybertruck (even some haters are loving it), then there is the sleeper that is the Energy business quietly growing like a grass fire in a brisk wind and bringing profits at a rate which should easily exceed the automotive branch. Plus, the AI side of things which is affecting several industries simultaneously (FSD, Optimus, Grok, etc.) and solving for problems in ways us meat sacks simply cannot manage.

Nothing in Tesla's past that generated brisk upward SP growth have had this many facets converging simultaneously, has it?

What does that mean to us HODLers once the realization finally sets in for the influencers of Wall Street?

 

[lascavarian]

If you have a CT it will usually be fairly easy to keep your home running (even without solar) if you are close to a supercharger that has power.

This!

In my particular situation where loss of power takes out both water and sewage service, the CT easily provides 4 to 5 PW capacity (120+ Kwh pack perhaps at half charge given surprise power outage) supporting power for days!

I won’t be buying 4 to 5 power walls but I will be buying a CT. The CT saves installation space and does not stay with the house if you sell.

It is the price of the power wall that supports the price of the CT. I figure I will be saving $30k+ on planned PW installs which makes an AWD CT irresistible.

Today a modern house should have one Power Wall and support for V2H. Multiple benefits accrue when a CT is added.

We are going to need a lot of 4680s once this gets recognized in the larger market.

 

[Cosmacelf]

What is the most important up and coming product for Tesla? A pitch for each:

• Cybertruck
  • Investment complete and the only sizeable TAM increase in the next 2 years
• Highland
  • Looks sell
• Juniper
  • What could be more important than a refresh of the world's number 1
• Optimus
  • Production ramp was due to start last month!
• M2
  • Launch event in 2024?
• Robotaxi
  • Elon didn't even want the M2
• Van
  • Could leverage CT tech and launch in 2024 ahead of gen 3? Huge TAM.
• Roadster
  • Will it fly?

Uh, did everyone forget about the semi? Thats yet another factory (Nevada expansion in this case) that Tesla has seemingly put on ice.

 

[scaesare]

If I were going to get the CT--made a reservation 4 years ago but have decided against it--and wanted some extra range to operate in remote areas with few superchargers, and didn't want to cough up $16k while losing 1/3rd of my bed storage to the range extender battery, I'd get a small gas generator with a 240 plug and run it at night while camping to do some charging. Saw a few today at Costco that would occupy a small part of the bed, can easily be lifted by a single person, and run $600-$800.

It will probably need to be an inverter-type generator however, as the on-board chargers have traditionally not been happy with the A/C output of standard generators... likely too noisy of a waveform.

And, of the inverter types, it would need to be a "true sine wave" (not "modified") to work.

These are becoming more common/less expensive, but still command a premium, especially for the larger ones...

 

[MP3Mike]

Uh, did everyone forget about the semi? Thats yet another factory (Nevada expansion in this case) that Tesla has seemingly put on ice.

Rumor has it that Tesla decided to build a new building nearby for the Semi production line instead of expanding GigaNevada.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Rumor has it that Tesla decided to build a new building nearby for the Semi production line instead of expanding GigaNevada.

Ok. And has construction started on that yet?

 

[scaesare]

Thank you for that detailed reply.

Never imagined stainless steel to be less smooth. I always thought they are naturally smoother than most surfaces except maybe glass.

The fact that tonneau cover is critical to get that CD means, if you are hauling stuff with objects that are tall enough that you cannot close the cover, that will show up in the reduced range. And most folks that actually haul stuff for a living have very little reason to close it and open it everytime.

I have a couple of buddies with tonneau covers on their work trucks that I've worked with, and we typically close it before getting on the road each time, primarily in order to keep tools from getting easily lifted when we make a stop.

Admittedly often only the last segment is flipped open/closed, but it's easy enough to do that we typically do it. Pushing a button to have it done automatically would be even easier. I don't see this as an impediment to traveling in the most efficient mode...

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Yup, ain't they gonna be surprised when they find out the hard way.

Just about happened at the delivery event. That is why it was rushed.

 

[scaesare]

You mean Ethernet network. I’m pretty sure Elon said it had gigabit Ethernet.

Even the early cars did... my S does... I've plugged in to it to do.. uhhh... "stuff"

They have an ethernet network and multible CANBus networks (6 I believe) with a gateway that can xfer data between them.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

When calculating Cyber reservations - how many do you think were made from other regions? Regions that will likely never ship.

The reservation system was open in UK initially - many people placed deposits -did this happen in other countries? How many do we think can be subtracted from the total?

Brian of My Tesla weekend claims Tesla are already in process of getting approval for the CT in Europe. Just saying....

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I wonder if some of the more knowledgeable folks on here would care to comment on whether they think that there would be a future energy density improvement of the 4680 batteries used in the cybertruck. Would 10 percent be possible? Time frame if at all. Is that a possible avenue to range improvement on the CT?

A 400 mile plus range without the aux pack in the bed would go a long way to making the CT more attractive to those towing.

Jmho. .

 

[scaesare]

In the Top Gear video you see a screen with variable settings for the trailer brakes.

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Integrated trailer brake controller is cool... and likely has several advantages that a 3rd party unit wouldn't (at least at this point.. and/or until Tesla publishes an API to get some data).

The vehicles (assume CT included) use an accelerometer to handle regen and brake-light application. This is integrated with the friction brakes as well as skid/traction control and is integrated with the BMS in order to be SoC/temp aware, so regen can be modulated according to what the pack can handle.

Existing brake controllers that work off of taillights, brake pedal position, or internal inertia, while they would work, wouldn't have the ability to take advantage of all that capability and data the way Tesla's integrated controller can...

 

[Buckminster]

List of products waiting 4680s in approximate likely sequence:

1. CT
2. Semi (V3 required? - 2170s today but maybe a reason for not ramping)
3. Roadster (V3 required?)
4. M2
5. Van
6. Robotaxi
7. MY (Juniper?)

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

I wonder if some of the more knowledgeable folks on here would care to comment on whether they think that there would be a future energy density improvement of the 4680 batteries used in the cybertruck. Would 10 percent be possible? Time frame if at all. Is that a possible avenue to range improvement on the CT?

A 400 mile plus range without the aux pack in the bed would go a long way to making the CT more attractive to those towing.

Jmho. .

When they get the silicon loaded up in the anode, yes those improvements will be there.

 

[scaesare]

I am pretty sure the tonneau slides down inside a hidden gap between the passenger compartment and the bed...and probably ends up partially under the forward section of the bed, and partially vertical within that gap, below the rear window.

I have never seen any indication that it is visible (or taking up space) in the bed when stowed.

Yup.

In Marques Brownlees video, he plays with the cover controls, opening and closing it several times. You can clearly see it retracts down in the area in front of the forward bed wall, not down inside the bed (video at correct time below):

Marques Brownlee's CT Review

There was also some discussion a while back of the space in retraced in to underneath the bed.

 

[Stretch2727]

I wonder if some of the more knowledgeable folks on here would care to comment on whether they think that there would be a future energy density improvement of the 4680 batteries used in the cybertruck. Would 10 percent be possible? Time frame if at all. Is that a possible avenue to range improvement on the CT?

A 400 mile plus range without the aux pack in the bed would go a long way to making the CT more attractive to those towing.

Jmho. .

It appears there is a pretty good bump in energy density from Model Y. I understand they have yet to add silicon which should be good for another 10-15%.

 

[scaesare]

If you weren't able to attend the CT production line tour at Giga Texas on Nov 30, you're in luck! Hint: Watch this video! It's IMPORTANT!

Cybertruck Delivery Event Video PART 2 Detailed and Narrated Cybertruck Production Line! | Joe Tegtmeyer (2023-12-02)

Takeaways: (w. slides from video w. timestamps per filename)

View attachment 995921View attachment 995922View attachment 995923

• Brian White (My Tesla Weekend on Youtube) is wrong about Tesla not having a factory where they can start building the Gen 3 car (a.k.a. Model 2, or Compact car, or $25K car) in the next yr
• There is plenty of room left for another G.A. line in the S.E. section of Giga Texas (see slides above), and there have been no public tours of this area to date (so it's okay you missed it, Brian)
• Tesla themselves refer to both GA2 (the Cybertruck) and GA3 Lines (still secret at this point)
• Notice the methods in common between CT production/assembly and the "unboxed" production process Tesla first described in March 2023:
  • no paint shop
  • BIW is assembly of flat 2-D panels
  • structural bty pack
  • 48v architecture w. POE
  • Steer-by-Wire/Brake-by-Wire

Will Model 2 also have 4-wheel steering? (it'd be great for city parking). Will it have 4680 batteries? (so many questions!) Tesla doesn't need 8 cell lines each producing 25GWh/yr just to feed CT -- that 200 GWh/yr is enough for Model 2 also, while sidesteping any potential IRA 'materials-sourcing' / 'foreign-entity-of-concern' issues / uncertainty. Using 4680s also adds additional IRA production benefits from using made-in-USA cells and packs (lowering COGS).

Overall, great video! Thanks for all you do, Joe Tegtmeyer!

Cheers!

P.S. if Model 2 has a 4680 structural pack (at least in one version), we musk also wonder if CT RWD might be offered in 2025 for ~$50K with a LFP structural pack? [Insert: 'thinker' meme]

Ah thanks for this. I've been looking for any evidence of Brake by Wire, as it wasn't explicitly mentioned like Steer by Wire was, which I found odd.

Watching that video, it indeed doesn't look like a traditional brake master cylinder along with that steering control unit: