Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

Ack, and now he says he is worried about going bankrupt. Shut up Elon, shut up.

No, he said that "Tesla won't sink" but part of that is he is worried about things and is slowing things down at Tesla to ensure that it doesn't. Or would you rather he be like Lucid losing tons of money while still going full speed ahead on expanding manufacturing facilities and product lines?

As he said he is probably a little over paranoid, but as the economy improves, Tesla can/will speed things back up.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I am going to cry . 1.8M guidance still on the horizon and I think you meant until the interest rates start to go down.

Yes, that's what Elon implied, but that isn't what will actually happen. It is very possible for the economy to pick up, and people to start buying cars again in volume even with interest rates where they are. In the 1990s (it was only 25 years ago people!), we had 6% interest rates with an absolutely BOOMING economy. So while Elon cries about interest rates, he may find that it doesn't matter as much as he thinks IF the economy picks up.

 

[MikeC]

Elon has NEVER considered earnings calls to be an opportunity to pump the stock.

I remember the “more valuable than Apple and Aramco combined” call…right before he sold shares.

 

[Tony73]

Yes, that's what Elon implied, but that isn't what will actually happen. It is very possible for the economy to pick up, and people to start buying cars again in volume even with interest rates where they are. In the 1990s (it was only 25 years ago people!), we had 6% interest rates with an absolutely BOOMING economy. So while Elon cries about interest rates, he may find that it doesn't matter as much as he thinks IF the economy picks up.

Cars were a lot cheaper 25 years ago.

 

[thx1139]

He spoke that “truth” in the worst way possible.

Elon speaking "truth" isnt the guy I have paid attention to the last 2 years. I am not talking about just bad estimates.

 

[thx1139]

Who’s going to tell Elon that interest rates are currently historically low?

Yeah people are really spoiled. Look back into the late 90s. Economy was very health and rates were still higher than this.

 

[Skryll]

Yes, that's what Elon implied, but that isn't what will actually happen. It is very possible for the economy to pick up, and people to start buying cars again in volume even with interest rates where they are. In the 1990s (it was only 25 years ago people!), we had 6% interest rates with an absolutely BOOMING economy. So while Elon cries about interest rates, he may find that it doesn't matter as much as he thinks IF the economy picks up.

Maybe the concern is if interest rates are raised further to stifle economy by fighting inflation when it happens to pick up in the near future.

Not only that rates get lowered at current economy activity.

 

[Tony73]

Cybertruck can still rescue this. As long as it is not a dud and “start of production” truly means start of production and not a semi style start of production.

 

[EXOTIC1]

Why not talk about the good quarter, the great new production lines installed, the fat cash in the bank and the amazing CyberTruck that is coming?

He sounds exhausted.

….. agree and I think they have a big 4th quarter and BEAT projections

 

[thx1139]

Cars were a lot cheaper 25 years ago.

Incomes were a lot lower 25 years ago. Hell Tesla's were a lot more expensive a year ago. I still believe Elon antics have driven down prices more than Macro environment.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Cybertruck can still rescue this. As long as it is not a dud and “start of production” truly means start of production and not a semi style start of production.

CT could also hurt if margins are extremely low or even negative.

 

[MP3Mike]

Overall, I fully agree with Tesla's plans to slow down GigaMexico, while moving the next-gen platform's initial production to GigaTexas. It makes sense in multiple ways, like the building already exists and has space available as well as that is where the engineers are. Plans change, and long-term this change is one that I think is for the best.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think Elon could very much benefit from an actual vacation if he could truly detach and trust his teams.

Considering the number of times he’s had to come to the rescue; nobody can be trusted.

 

[thx1139]

Cybertruck can still rescue this. As long as it is not a dud and “start of production” truly means start of production and not a semi style start of production.

With all the CTs leaving the factory I have to believe this ramp will be different. I do believe that launch wont be just a few on the 30th. I do believe that rumor that they will also deliver in other locations the next day. That would do a lot for Tesla, but the downer on Cybertruck expense etc. on the call will hurt it. Yeah we know launch cars cost more than the revenue, just dont need to focus on it so much.

 

[Tony73]

CT could also hurt if margins are extremely low or even negative.

The market will give Tesla the benefit of the doubt that margins will improve. Production acceptable and vindication is what is important.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Cars were a lot cheaper 25 years ago.

No. They cost about the same (adjusted for inflation, which is the only way to compare).

 

[uscbucsfan]

With all the CTs leaving the factory I have to believe this ramp will be different. I do believe that launch wont be just a few on the 30th. I do believe that rumor that they will also deliver in other locations the next day. That would do a lot for Tesla, but the downer on Cybertruck expense etc. on the call will hurt it. Yeah we know launch cars cost more than the revenue, just dont need to focus on it so much.

It would hurt no one if Elon just didn't say...or even didn't stew in the difficulties of the CT. Doing so does hurt and we all know the market doesn't account for this stuff. Just as Elon said Q3 numbers would be down, when they were actually down...the stock lowered.

 

[uscbucsfan]

The market will give Tesla the benefit of the doubt that margins will improve. Production acceptable and vindication is what is important.

Almost 0 chance in that.

What is your logic in this? The market giving benefit of the doubt with Tesla?...That would be a first.

 

[jerry33]

History has shown that we should worry about the stock when Elon is overly optimistic and pumping the stock. He didn’t today, so we’re good.

BTW: Elons story about 20% credit card interest rates is a US fenomenon. In Europe we mostly use debit cards, and credit cards are payed off every month.

I have found the best way to deal with credit cards is to pay them off a couple of times a week.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Can what is going on with Tesla possibly be summed up as follows?

1. Elon's more recent foray into politics has had an asymmetrically negative impact on demand, turning off a significant portion of the subset of buyers that are more open to buying an EV as their next car, meaning that more of Tesla's volume must come from non-early adopter types.
2. These non-early adopter, mass-market consumers are more resistant to buying an EV for various reasons, to the point of price inelasticity. (See the recent surveys that have been published on this topic.)
3. Elon and Tesla are conflating the cause for this demand weakness with high interest rates. They attempt to address it by dropping prices, but the buyers they are trying to lure are more put off by their misperceptions with EVs than they are by price, making the price cuts relatively ineffective.
4. At the same time, Tesla is not undertaking the type of educational campaign that could actually make inroads with these mass market consumers.