Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

Even with instant reaction time, in poor weather the safe following distance is... A lot shorter than what most humans do.

Did you mean longer here? Otherwise your statement confuses me.

 

[davecolene0606]

He is not wrong. While I do not believe full everywhere all conditions level 5 FSD is possible, the fact is that "partial self driving" also depends on the best dataset, and Tesla has an uncatchable lead.

I should emphasize that what is never happening is "everywhere, all conditions, any time, sleep in your car". Nobody will ever implement all the corner cases. It is not commercially worthwhile. Perhaos there will be "Manual driving past this point" signs.

Freeway entrance to exit good weather self driving could be revealed on the 22nd, by contrast.

So, ur sayin machine learning/AI will never be able to do “on the fly” solutions? My expectation is that is the solution vs just solving for vision. The programming for all cases will not work, it must be a dynamic solution solver that draws from other experience (data set), and that IMHO is certainly within reach to a 99.99etc level in the near future.

Fire Away!

 

[scaesare]

Fluid dynamics explains auto traffic in nearly every case. High speeds without accidents are entirely possible, so long as there is minimal speed variation between ‘lanes’, nor movement between lanes. However, even a slight perturbation at high speed destroys smooth flow and causes accidents.

Ahhh… for the joy of laminar flow traffic!

 

[KarenRei]

Ahhh… for the joy of laminar flow traffic!

You don't want to see what traffic vortex shedding looks like

 

[neroden]

Interesting. I knew that Jurvetson and Gracias were Musk allies, but I wasn't aware that Buss was as well. Looks like the only "independent" person on the board who's leaving is Rice. They got rid of every Musk ally except Kimball (well, and Larry, though he's nominally independent). This, combined with the elimination of supermajority requirements, would be a massive win for institutionals and a loss for Elon (but one he's apparently accepting, since Tesla is endorsing this).

Something is surely going on behind the scenes here.

Denholm is a Musk ally. Sure, she does not have personal history, but read what she wrote... She is a total fan. Ehrenpreis is also a Musk ally. Dunno about wilson-Thompson.

 

[Unpilot]

Having sufficiently robust liquidity to being the credit rating up from B- to BBB would be another good one.

The ratings agency's are a complete joke. Zero credibility...ZERO. If they change the rating it will be at the direction of their overlord's.
Not because of fundamental changes in TESLA valuation.

Yes I understand this is how the "game" is played....and yes it makes me sick/

 

[ZsoZso]

Full self driving everywhere is a fantasy. It will never, ever, ever happen. Not with humans on the road, and humans will always be on the road, except possibly on freeways.

Never say never.
Although, with the qualifier in your next sentence, I agree. Human drivers are the main problem for safe robotic drivers. Humans will abuse the robo-drivers to cut them off, driving more aggressively. I believe the solution will be that human drivers will be gradually outlawed once the technology is available universally (most cars on the road will have the capability). First on highways, it will be forbidden to drive manually, then it will spread to cities, then smaller roads, lastly to rural areas. This will be driven by insurance companies and cost of lives and emergency services.

 

[neroden]

I understand this view but... I never thought that i would be able to talk to my phone, or my car and they would understand what I'm saying, even if I have an accent, or if i'm a bit drunk, or distracted, and in a slightly noisy environment. And they understand almost anything I say. And they do this for free, at any time, anywhere.

Lucky you. They do not work for me and many others.

I thought mobile phones were science fiction when I was a kid (star trek communicators), but now I'm on maybe my 5th phone, and its 100x better than kirks. We may not have FSD everywhere before 2020, or before 2030 but NEVER?

Mobile phones are not the same sort of problem. They were always a straightforward thing... Now, mobile phones which work everywhere, that is impossible, as I am sure you will agree. There will always be dead zones.

 

[Tslynk67]

Chinese electric sports car Qiantu K50 by Mullen coming to US roads next year

WTF are they thinking? It looks kinda cool, but those performance numbers?

• With twin electric motors drawing power from a lithium-ion battery pack, the K50 can punch out 430 horsepower and 560 pound-feet of torque.

• It can launch from 0 to 60 in just 4.3 seconds, with an electronically limited top speed of 112 mph.

• The U.S. version of the K50 is expected to be priced around $149,000 when it reaches showrooms next year.

Faster than a fighter jet: The $2.5 million Pininfarina Battista electric hypercar debuts in New York

Supposedly comparable to a Gen 2 Roadster, but at a price that is 10x higher.

You realise they'll sell every single Battista they make, because it's 10x more expensive than the R2...

 

[neroden]

Never say never.
Although, with the qualifier in your next sentence, I agree. Human drivers are the main problem for safe robotic drivers. Humans will abuse the robo-drivers to cut them off, driving more aggressively. I believe the solution will be that human drivers will be gradually outlawed once the technology is available universally (most cars on the road will have the capability). First on highways, it will be forbidden to drive manually, then it will spread to cities, then smaller roads, lastly to rural areas. This will be driven by insurance companies and cost of lives and emergency services.

Maybe, but there are problems with your idea.

Primary problem: roads are not just for cars! Except freeways, which is why freeways will have self driving first and will ban human drivers first. Normal roads are for pedestrians, horses, buggies, street fairs, bicycles, etc etc etc, and you cannot ban them... Pedestrians have to be able to cross the road. To get their mail, in many cases! We may have a new era of pedestrian utopia if only self driving cars are allowed in midtown Manhattan... The pedestrians will never open up a space for the car, and the car will (unlike human driven cars) not threaten to run over the pedestrians, so the car may be stuck forever.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Yesterday, at a stop light, a bus turned right in front of me into my lane and expected me to back up. Luckily there was nobody behind me. Then there is the crazy mess I went through in a parking lot with illegally parked cars, cars stopped with blinkers on, a lane too narrow for two way traffic (with two way traffic)... And the other parking lot which combined this with a blind corner and cars making K turns to reach gas pumps. Plus the pedestrians of course. All in one day...

Full self driving everywhere is a fantasy. It will never, ever, ever happen. Not with humans on the road, and humans will always be on the road, except possibly on freeways.

That's just a situation where the stopped autonomous car sends video to HQ, and HQ sends video to the police. Video evidence is a great bullshit maneuver deterrent.

 

[bdy0627]

Bold statement. Use of absolutes like "never" are a dangerous path to take. I try to avoid them but to each his/her own.

Dan

Yes it is. Clearly very very difficult. Impossible?

Clarke's three laws - Wikipedia
British science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke formulated three adages that are known as Clarke's three laws, of which the third law is the best known and most widely cited. They were part of his ideas in his extensive writings about the future.[1] These so-called laws include:

1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
2. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

 

[Drax7]

The entire board is Elon friendlies. If you think otherwise, that’s hilarious.

If you think Elon cares about institutional investors enough to tailor Tesla to their standards after not taking the company private to show loyalty to the retail investors, also hilarious.

Elon isn’t motivated by money. He understands its value and his need for it to see his goals reached, but that’s not the same as being motivated by it. That’s why you’re confused about what needs to happen for you (because I’m already way in the money as are many others here) to make money off this stock. Your best bet is to simply follow Wall Street and its kissing cousin Media because you don’t have the patience to wait out the storm.

Elon has been preparing Tesla for independence and its own ability to be self-sustainable. Elon is also preparing Tesla to survive a predicted coming recession. And he’s preparing it to essentially take over multiple trillion dollar sectors and crush everything in its path.

You put way too much stock in the SEC, Moodys and all those entities. They’re all irrelevant in the end, like human FSD babysitters.

And yeah, I can find the humor is almost everything including investing. Life is one big, fat I Love Lucy episode.

Elon is motivated by money too, lets not be naive. He is now accustomed to a life style that is hard
To come down from. Fame glory 100 million dollar house compound, jetting worldwide, and on and on.
He is not mother Teresa. He is generous but not naive.

 

[bdy0627]

Any demand shortfall would end by opening more service centers. I know dozens of people who would buy the car today if the nearest service center was only 100 miles away instead of 250. That is literally the only thing stopping purchases. Management seems blind to this dynamic though.

This is certainly true in Wisconsin. I know a couple of people who decided not to get a Tesla because the nearest service center is down near Chicago. One opted for Porsche instead due to the strong presence of a nearby dealer.

 

[Tslynk67]

View attachment 398175 Here's accurate numbers. My range was halved. Alberta winters and mountains can do that to you. Don't want to run out of charge in those locations either...

Pfff, I get 300 when I drive carefully in good weather. XP100DL on Autobanh is a very thirst beast:

 

[lklundin]

Yesterday, at a stop light, a bus turned right in front of me into my lane and expected me to back up. Luckily there was nobody behind me. Then there is the crazy mess I went through in a parking lot with illegally parked cars, cars stopped with blinkers on, a lane too narrow for two way traffic (with two way traffic)... And the other parking lot which combined this with a blind corner and cars making K turns to reach gas pumps. Plus the pedestrians of course. All in one day..

So, like myself you are spending Easter in Italy?

 

[lklundin]

How are so many i3’s (relatively) selling?
Slashed prices/huge discounts?
It’s basically an EOL car.

Germans supporting their automotive industry...

(Around Munich i3s vastly outnumber Tesla - for now).

 

[scaesare]

Pfff, I get 300 when I drive carefully in good weather. XP100DL on Autobanh is a very thirst beast:

View attachment 398836

Are the X's stock tires rated for those speeds?

 

[S3XY]

In our house if anyone is more than 5 minutes late we send out the National Guard and then have to listen to an hours long lecture about why that’s not acceptable behavior, followed by an exhaustive list of no less than 83 of the most horrifying possibilities that didn’t happen but could have in that five minutes. I have my doubts, though, that you can Scarface a body in that length of time.

I couldn't help but think of this when reading your post.

 

[Tslynk67]

I see we are mentioning I-PACEs in this thread. So let me just say that I received one today and have shared my early impressions here: Jaguar I-Pace.

Before any of you jump on me, I did not buy it outright and wouldn't do so. I got it for an excellent price on a lease, the sort of deal Tesla would never and will never do. And that's something, as a Tesla investor, I'm glad of. I don't agree with some of the comments above regarding cheap material quality, but it really depends what you're used to and comparing it to I guess.

Agreed, when I went to the iPace launch in Brussels I thought it was a nice, solid little car - emphasis on little - but with a rathe rover-complicated looking set of screens and buttons. But I do agree that the door-handles are a poor imitation of the Model S.