The only threat to Tesla that exists is if BEVs do not take off.
I'm pretty sure that moment has passed.
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The only threat to Tesla that exists is if BEVs do not take off.
I don’t think that’s true. My own thesis is that Tesla’s technological dominance results in huge cost advantages and that means they will have higher profits than have been the case in the gas area. If that’s not the case and the EV market ends up being very competitive, then Tesla’s eventual profits might not be that much greater than twice of Toyota’s in their heyday. And their present market cap is more than twice Toyota’s.The only threat to Tesla that exists is if BEVs do not take off. If we do not transition to sustainable energy. That is Tesla's mission. It is not to be #1 in everything it does... not to have the highest profit margins... highest revenues... highest car sales... etc. etc.. it is simply to accelerate the transition. If they do not cause all the other manufacturers to come along, that is a fail. Mazda is an example. Complete fail at the moment, every one of their cars comes with a fossil-fuel-burning combustion engine in it. But most other manufacturers are following along and starting to produce BEVs.
Tesla has said many times they can't do it alone, they need the other manufacturers to produce BEVs simultaneously. It should not be deemed a "threat" if some other manufacturer is selling nore BEVs than Tesla. Ultimately, humanity benefits.
Well we’re still in the early days really, EVs as a proportion of total vehicle sales are still pretty low much less as a proportion of all vehicles (and adding in trucks and commercial vehicles) on the road today. Even after all this growth and being the leader by far, Tesla needs to 10x production from here.I'm pretty sure that moment has passed.
At one point he said that, but he changed to "end of the year". I'm sure a few will be delivered to employees at the CT event, which was originally in "late Q3", it hasn't been announced, yet.if memory serves, Elon announced that we might get some deliveries of the cybertruck at the end of Q3. Does that sound correct?
Yes but then he was asked about it on the Q2 earnings call and he only said deliveries before the end of the year. I think a decent part of the sell off post earnings was the disappointment in that Elon wouldn't confirm that deliveries would take place by end of Sept.if memory serves, Elon announced that we might get some deliveries of the cybertruck at the end of Q3. Does that sound correct?
The two things that he continues to be firm on is that mass production won't begin until 2024 and the ramp will be extremely slow.Yes but then he was asked about it on the Q2 earnings call and he only said deliveries before the end of the year. I think a decent part of the sell off post earnings was the disappointment in that Elon wouldn't confirm that deliveries would take place by end of Sept.
I don't necessarily disagree with this sentiment, but it is definitely the case that there are regional differences. In the SF bay area, I can't help but notice how many new MY and M3 are around. On my walk yesterday, on one block (admittedly not representative) I counted 9 Teslas, 3 of which were plainly purchased within the last few months (paper plates still). I've been "Elon" about my prediction about how quick the tipping point will come and I know Iowa isn't like this, but the IRA is injecting a ton of energy into adoption. I'll be highly interested to see what the numbers are for Q3 and 4 for EV's nationally. I predict upside surprise.Well we’re still in the early days really, EVs as a proportion of total vehicle sales are still pretty low much less as a proportion of all vehicles (and adding in trucks and commercial vehicles) on the road today. Even after all this growth and being the leader by far, Tesla needs to 10x production from here.
By the time we get to that place, more Teslas will be selling in a single quarter than have been sold total to date over the last 15 years.
Yeah it definitely varies by area, California of course being the Tesla epicenter.I don't necessarily disagree with this sentiment, but it is definitely the case that there are regional differences. In the SF bay area, I can't help but notice how many new MY and M3 are around. On my walk yesterday, on one block (admittedly not representative) I counted 9 Teslas, 3 of which were plainly purchased within the last few months (paper plates still). I've been "Elon" about my prediction about how quick the tipping point will come and I know Iowa isn't like this, but the IRA is injecting a ton of energy into adoption. I'll be highly interested to see what the numbers are for Q3 and 4 for EV's nationally. I predict upside surprise.
if memory serves, Elon announced that we might get some deliveries of the cybertruck at the end of Q3. Does that sound correct?
It is totally fair to question whether Tesla gets to 20 million/year on whatever schedule is posed. It all starts, however, with meeting or exceeding 1.8m/year this year. So far, so good it seems to me.Yeah it definitely varies by area, California of course being the Tesla epicenter.
IRA and such is good but even just talking production, right now we're running at 1.8-2m/year and the goal is 20m/year. I haven't manually added up numbers from the quarterly/annual reports, but Google results say just over 4.5m vehicles have been shipped from 2008 to July 2023 so that's less than one quarter's production from the final goal.
Hmmm they left off "CCS2 charging" from the feature listNot sure about layoffs but they just announced final specs on another mass money losing vehicle
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At one point he said that, but he changed to "end of the year". I'm sure a few will be delivered to employees at the CT event, which was originally in "late Q3", it hasn't been announced, yet.
I would expect that 20m to arrive and am definitely not questioning that goal myself, I'm really just suggesting that we're still in the early days in terms of that final goal both for Tesla and for the EV movement as a whole.It is totally fair to question whether Tesla gets to 20 million/year on whatever schedule is posed. It all starts, however, with meeting or exceeding 1.8m/year this year. So far, so good it seems to me.
What I meant about OAuth was, that I'd like a proper OAuth flow with proper permissions management (i.e., I'd like to be able to grant only read-only access in a convenient fashion) and documented and supported API, versus the current method with TeslaFi and such where we have to basically do the OAuth ourselves and copy and paste the resulting token.
Think of things like when you connect your Google account to something, and Google comes up and says this app wants to connect to your account, here's all the things it can do, etc. I'd like to have that user friendliness and transparency, versus the archaic incantations we must currently use. The Standard Fleet service basically does this, and I'd like to see all the TeslaFi and similar sites transition to this officially supported API.
EV sales globally are now 19% of all auto sales, as of mid-2023 and up from 13% at end 2022.Well we’re still in the early days really, EVs as a proportion of total vehicle sales are still pretty low much less as a proportion of all vehicles (and adding in trucks and commercial vehicles) on the road today. Even after all this growth and being the leader by far, Tesla needs to 10x production from here.
By the time we get to that place, more Teslas will be selling in a single quarter than have been sold total to date over the last 15 years.