Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Last night, Randy Kirk called $290 for TLSA today. We already touched the Upper-BB (at $292.22 exactly) by 09:36 ET and that's usually the signal for shortzes to jump in. We'll see how much FOMO is afoot with Earnings coming up in just 2 moar daze...

Cheers!

 

[Nocturnal]

There is a chance that recent weather events not just in the US but around the world will slightly influence the stock price. The global climate is in meltdown, and even the most cynical investor is going to know that means that governments, as well as individuals are going to see that as good cause to push faster and further when it comes to decarbonisation and the phase out of fossil fuel vehicles.
No US company will benefit more from this than Tesla.

I know even if I was neutral on climate change, If I was a fund manager I'd see current headlines as evidence that the IRA is here to stay, and may even be beefed up, that even a trump presidency is unlikely to have political cover to row back on it, and this all feeds into more profit for TSLA.

I've been considering this as well. Humans are weird. People can be told for decades about a problem but it won't become real until it slaps them in the face. A rapid refocus on climate change is a moonshot but possible.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I've only been investing in TSLA for a decade so hoping someone can help me out on this. If margins start negative and then you significantly cut prices, how does that affect margins? Do they go positive? Asking for a friend.

Unless F had a battery breakthrough where they figured out how to make the battery pack for free...then NO

 

[jim0266]

Me: TA is BS.

Also me: Damn, look how it hit the downward resistance line from ATH.

 

[unk45]

This one was at Curitiba

Sitting at a stop light while I drove by, if I wasn’t late for my flight I would have went around the block to check it out

Reflecting now, I should have said screw the flight

I keep hearing persistent rumors that Tesla is nearing sales in Mercosur with Brazil and Chile (home of the largest municipal BEV fleet outside China, all BYD made-in-Brazil even though not many are sold in Brazil. Since BYD just signed the deal for BEV car production at the former Ford factory in Bahia, using batteries from the already open BYD battery plant.

The Tesla rumors I hear are linked with BYD in part because the Tesla’s will allegedly use the BYD batteries which will together be qualified for favorable China-specific terms. Initially that seemed a stretch so I did not post the speculation. The final elements seem to be opening Supercharger network for all BEV’s and cooperation with grid support including Megapacks. Both of those relate specifically to State Grid cooperation.

CATL has not been so active but has had an agreement with Moura (largest traditional domestic battery maker) for Li-ion production. This was just released which seems to be a precursor to CATL making a direct play as other Chinese forms have been doing:

SHC Group to provide CATL batteries technical assistance – AutoIndústria

The SHC Group was named post-sales and technical assistance representative in Brazil for electric-drive vehicle batteries and energy storage systems of CATL

www.autoindustria.com.br

All these rumors are based on the idea that Tesla Shanghai may be the primary Tesla entity involved. I’m not convinced that this is true, but there is enough smoke to suggest some sort of fire is igniting. Anyway, there is a not subtle tendency to compare BRICS members India and Brazil, so Lula is paying attention and really wants more China investment. 'If Modi can have it I want it too'?

 

[scaesare]

They are really good in teardown and cost accounting evaluations but hardly technology and intellectual leaders. Paying attention to @petit_bateau is more informative on this subject.
Just as in biology there are endless variations of endo- and exo- which prove that the distinction is actually a continuum rather than binary. Even in some famous aircraft cases that Sandy likes, there is a continuum.
Our world, including those Tesla and Elon comments at the reveal, do encourage absolutes where very few of those exist among insects or man-made objects.

This comment was in regard to Munro's expertise, and I tend to agree.

Munro & Team are VERY informative/thorough in the domains they have experience with. In areas they don't, rather than always disclaim that, they sometimes make claims that aren't necessarily insightful or true.

The example that springs to mind is the FSD computer. Certainly it was innovative in terms of architecture, but the board was rather pedestrian in that it contained surface-mount packages and was populated in a rather standard density/fashion. While it may not be an item found in may other autos, Sandy went on and on about how advanced the components and layout looked, saying it was stuff the military didn't even likely have. Clearly he had never seen a video card made in the last decade.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Love the creativity of MSM:

Cybertruck Smokescreen? Analysts Ring Warning Bells On Tesla Margins

Tesla announced the first Cybertruck was produced at its Austin plant. Meanwhile, analysts worry about Q2 margins.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[scaesare]

Every one I know who actually tows big stuff, tows it 40 miles or less. That is mostly equipment and boats. yes, I know 1 in 30 tow mobile homes but that is not a major market segment. 350 miles is good for for more people than Tesla can build for in the next three years.

I know the range thing has been talked about ad-nauseum (and a mod has issued a caution).

I'll just point out that there's a good sized segment of folks that own travel trailers, and they typically travel much farther than 40 miles... heck loading/prepping/hooking it up almost isn't worth it for a 40 mile trip. When I owned mine, my typical trip was probably 75-150 miles one-way. Ditto for the guys I travelled with.

I see them towed far more often than mobile homes, which tend to be towed initially than parked for most of their life. Probably more than boats, bit less than construction stuff.

I do agree that there's a large population for which 350 miles is useful. But there's also a good-sized segment for which 500 miles (likely 275ish towing) is needed...

 

[scaesare]

Ford stock falls after prices of F-150 Lightning EVs cut by up to 17% on lowest priced model​

Ford’s stock falls after F-150 Lightning EV prices cut by up to 17%

Ford's stock suffered a 4th straight decline Monday after the automaker cut prices on its F-150 Lightning electric trucks.

www.marketwatch.com

The manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) for the lowest price Pro model dropped 16.6% to $49,995 from $59,974, for the XLT 311A fell 14.7% to $54,995, for the Lariat 510A declined 7.1% to $69,995 and for the Platinum Extended Range slipped 6.2% to $91,995. The price cuts come electric vehicle giant Tesla Inc.’s TSLA price cuts led to a blowout second-quarter deliveries report.

I wonder if Ford has seen Light[e]ning sales affected from the NACS announcement and folks deciding to hold off until the plug is incorporated in to the next model.

 

[Todd Burch]

I wonder if Ford has seen Light[e]ning sales affected from the NACS announcement and folks deciding to hold off until the plug is incorporated in to the next model.

I'm sure it's a combination of that, plus interest rate hikes, plus approaching Cybertruck production combining for a perfect storm.

 

[Unpilot]

If Q2 numbers are good/great I think.

That and any other such puerile, multiple-times already over-used, do-utterly-NOTHING to advance discussion garbage will earn its posters holidays. This is not the first such watning.

I’m taking a self-imposed holiday...no need for warnings...or even watning's

 

[JRP3]

'cuz maths? 500 mi / 300 wh / mi = 150 Kwh used. That's 75% of a 200 Kwh pack. Feel free to attempt further understandings.

You expect the larger Cybertruck to be 50wh/mi more efficient than the Model X? Oops, bad math, but I do think the Cybertruck will be higher than 300 Wh/mi.

 

[Kenypowa]

Ford stock falls after prices of F-150 Lightning EVs cut by up to 17% on lowest priced model​

Ford’s stock falls after F-150 Lightning EV prices cut by up to 17%

Ford's stock suffered a 4th straight decline Monday after the automaker cut prices on its F-150 Lightning electric trucks.

www.marketwatch.com

The manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) for the lowest price Pro model dropped 16.6% to $49,995 from $59,974, for the XLT 311A fell 14.7% to $54,995, for the Lariat 510A declined 7.1% to $69,995 and for the Platinum Extended Range slipped 6.2% to $91,995. The price cuts come electric vehicle giant Tesla Inc.’s TSLA price cuts led to a blowout second-quarter deliveries report.

You did it, Jim!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680933243745456131

 

[MP3Mike]

You expect the larger Cybertruck to be 50wh/mi more efficient than the Model X?

I don't think your math works out either, as the Model X is rated for 348 miles, so if it was 350Wh/mile that would mean it has a ~122kWh pack. But it has less than a 100kWh pack. (Which would make it closer to ~287Wh/mile.)

Could the Cybertruck be only ~5% less efficient than the Model X? If so, Tesla is doing very good.

 

[AndrewZ]

This is almost assuredly not the last we've seen of price cuts and discounts across the auto industry, assuming rates don't come down in the near term.

Just imagine what the environment would look like right now if the IRA tax credits weren't rolled out so generously and every sub-$80k Lightning wasn't also garnering the $7500 incentive

 

[JRP3]

I don't think your math works out either, as the Model X is rated for 348 miles, so if it was 350Wh/mile that would mean it has a ~122kWh pack. But it has less than a 100kWh pack. (Which would make it closer to ~287Wh/mile.)

Could the Cybertruck be only ~5% less efficient than the Model X? If so, Tesla is doing very good.

You are correct of course. I do think Cybertruck will be less efficient than that.

 

[Stretch2727]

I've only been investing in TSLA for a decade so hoping someone can help me out on this. If margins start negative and then you significantly cut prices, how does that affect margins? Do they go positive? Asking for a friend.

The joke when I worked at Ford was "we will make it up in volume".

The truth in the automotive business is there is a heavy fixed cost component even in the gross margins. I do agree they have a big problem but selling more can lower the fixed costs per unit pretty dramatically. This has even been discussed here about the Tesla price cuts not eating into margins in a linear way if the volume increases.

 

[SOULPEDL]

You did it, Jim!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680933243745456131

Cramer spelled Lightning correctly this time... baby steps Jim.

 

[mongo]

Elon commenting on Lightning price cut
"The Ford Lightning is a good vehicle, just somewhat expensive, especially given the high interest rates these days for any kind of loan"

 

[SOULPEDL]

The joke when I worked at Ford was "we will make it up in volume".

The truth in the automotive business is there is a heavy fixed cost component even in the gross margins. I do agree they have a big problem but selling more can lower the fixed costs per unit pretty dramatically. This has even been discussed here about the Tesla price cuts not eating into margins in a linear way if the volume increases.

Careful on that ramp. Ford was already selling the Lightning at a negative margin of 102%. Drop the price by another 17%, so loss of 119%?
(It's too early, feels like a trick question. I don't think it is 119% since they're discounting the discount.)