Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

NKLA is doing great today.

Ford is the best old ICE partner for Tesla. Tesla can’t do it alone. Good times.

 

[Olle]

I am going to put Ford announcing adopting North American Charging Standard (NACS) on my bingo card.

Bingo! I must say I'm impressed, would honestly not have guessed even though I've been one of the biggest proponents for this at least on this forum: Petition for Tesla to replace CCS as standard in US

Another benefit that I haven't seen anybody mention yet is that once Ford vehicles have NACS, they will have access to over 40,000 Tesla destination chargers in NA:

After ten years of EV driving I am sad to say that the non Tesla destination network is even more unreliable than the fast charging networks, if such a thing is even possible. By now I have given up the fiddling with apps or burnt out LCD screens to after several minutes find out that charing is currently unavailable or that I started a charger in the parking lot next door because the operator had mixed up the chargers' map locations. I have accepted that it sucks hard and that its given "free of charge" a whole new meaning. Now I only stay at hotels that have Tesla chargers and it works. Imagining that I'm not the only one...
NACS in Ford vehicles will be a win for both Tesla and Ford. Ford will get destination charging that actually works and Tesla will get even more brand exposure.

 

[DarthPierce]

I hope ford dealers all need to install Tesla superchargers. They'll need to when Ford goes to NACS. Right?

Seems like that'll help in places like Montana (and maybe Alaska) where there are a lot of Ford dealers but not many chargers.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why do you say half? Tesla is making an adapter (NACS to CCS) for Ford that goes into production early 2024.

The figure "12,000" literally comes from the title of yesterday's P.R. by Ford:

Ford EV Customers to Gain Access To 12,000 Tesla Superchargers; Company To Add North American Charging Standard Port In Future Evs​

Since we know that Tesla had about 17K Supercharger stalls in 2023Q1, and we know their current buildout rate for the SC network, we can estimate that providing access to 12K SC stalls to Ford in 2024Q1 is about half of Tesla's total SC infrastructure in N. America. I think this is comparable to the access Tesla currently provides to 3rd parties in Europe.

Cheers!

 

[GSP]

But Ford is the first to negotiate to use the Supercharger network.

Second. Aptera announced they have access.

 

[Buckminster]

Superchargers to Ford etc. chat could go here:
Supercharger V3 (Investors thread)
I will request a change to the title to make it more generic.

I copied across Heltok’s post here for anyone wanting to talk about Tesla eating Nvidia’s lunch:
Project Dojo - the SaaS Product?

 

[MP3Mike]

The figure "12,000" literally comes from the title of yesterday's P.R. by Ford:

Ford EV Customers to Gain Access To 12,000 Tesla Superchargers; Company To Add North American Charging Standard Port In Future Evs​

Since we know that Tesla had about 17K Supercharger stalls in 2023Q1, and we know their current buildout rate for the SC network, we can estimate that providing access to 12K SC stalls to Ford in 2024Q1 is about half of Tesla's total SC infrastructure in N. America. I think this is comparable to the access Tesla currently provides to 3rd parties in Europe.

Cheers!

From Supercharge.info here is the summary of open stalls by Supercharging speed in North America:

The announcement actually says "more than 12,000 Tesla Superchargers". And V3 is 13,290, which is more than 12,000. So my guess is that they are only opening V3s. (But I guess they could just open ones that are "underutilized" be they V2 or V3, so maybe not all V3s will be open?)

 

[MP3Mike]

Second. Aptera announced they have access.

Is that really recent? Do you have a link to where they say that?

Last I heard they said that they were using the NACS connector, and were hoping to get Supercharger access, but I haven't seen where they said that they have it.

Here is what their site says: DC Fast Charging Now Standard | Aptera

Our DC Fast Charging system is designed to work with the Super Charger Network, so if Tesla agrees to open their network up to Aptera owners, your Launch Edition vehicle will be ready to go.

So they are not saying that they have access yet.

 

[EVNow]

It's almost impossible to police against internal sabotage. As long as Tesla has it's data hashed/encrypted, with limited access to those with a "need to know" and documented/demonstrable procedures in place, then they have little to answer with regards to GDRP

This is what I'm not sure about. Remember the news item about people sharing car camera videos internally ?

 

[Artful Dodger]

NKLA is doing great today.

"...everyday above the ground is a good day."

 

[lascavarian]

Mark Fields on CNBC praising charging deal. R Gerber praising it as well. Means tons of charging stations.

Fields speculates others could follow Ford making this the one charging standard for NA.

 

[insaneoctane]

Perhaps the long game here is F dealerships getting some service or support role for TSLA. F has an extensive dealership network, TSLA has an extensive charging network. This could exist in various forms but IMO would be an acceleration for the adoption of EVs.

Yes, but how would a "for-profit" Ford dealer offer Tesla's service when Elon has explicitly said Tesla will never make service a profit center? Maybe 3rd party servicing doesn't apply to that claim?

 

[unk45]

Correct, but price often gets people in the door.

Yes, true, but most research I've seen suggests that price promotions tend to influence choice between two or more vendors of a given item, rarely influencing an actual product choice.
None of that in any way denies the crucial question of affordability which is really a different issue, related, but different.

The Tesla case is interesting primarily because most potentially interested buyers tend to think the Tesla products are more expensive than they actually can be. The trend in ASP has been declining, reflecting more lower specification vehicles in the lineup.

OTOH, there is the endless debate about margins, that reflects changes in raw materials, supplier pricing, shipping and the entire Tesla operating infrastructure. Given the tremendous growth in factories, Superchargers, Stores and Service Centers there is surely increased SG&A expenses plus Capex, but in this environment we cannot completely reconcile everything.

The most bewildering part is the virtuous result of GigaCasting, structural packs, new paint shops and so much more. All this is happening in an operating environment so much of these expenditures are capitalized and others ar in operating expenses.

All of those enter into the affordability calculus, as does the new vehicle(s) destined for Monterrey and elsewhere.

With Ford entering the Tesla sphere next year, new Superchargers opening at a breakneck pace we will also begin to see greater revenues from Superchargers, complementing the Tesla Energy growth, especially utility scale.

All the efforts to make financial forecasts thus far have mostly ignored all those details, mostly because of lack of information, model complexity and absolute magnitude too small. Now Tesla has growing subscriptions plus all those other factors.

Pricing publicity does indeed get qualified buyers in the door where the vast majority end out buying connectivity , optional colors and other things. Hence the average ASP is never near the base anywhere near the cheapest base price.

Still it's true that affordability does get people to look.

 

[Darkfox021]

Yes, but how would a "for-profit" Ford dealer offer Tesla's service when Elon has explicitly said Tesla will never make service a profit center? Maybe 3rd party servicing doesn't apply to that claim?

I'm not sure I buy into the idea that Tesla will use Ford dealerships for service, however if Elon explicitly stated "never" as you said, Tesla would still not make profit on service performed at a Ford dealership.

 

[GSP]

Is that really recent? Do you have a link to where they say that?

Last I heard they said that they were using the NACS connector, and were hoping to get Supercharger access, but I haven't seen where they said that they have it.

Looks like you are correct. Aptera announced that they were "technically capable" of using the Superchargers. I remembered the headline incorrectly. Aptera may not have enough $$$ to negotiate access, but I hope Tesla would give them a good deal due to the low volume of Apteras that will be built.

Aptera makes DC fast-charging standard with launch edition ...Teslaratihttps://www.teslarati.com › News

 

[ggies07]

Fields speculates others could follow Ford making this the one charging standard for NA.

ok, let's nip this in the bud and do this!

 

[bkp_duke]

Tesla and Ford
I wonder if this gets TSLA closer to a point where they spin out the supercharging network as a separate business (SPCH), separately traded company, ala the way there is discussion for SpaceX spinning out Starlink. Not sure what advantage there'd be to Tesla to do that, other than realizing a slug of cash in the near future as opposed to generating steady and increasing income over time.

Heaven I hope not. Supercharging is a fantastic bridge between Tesla Auto and Tesla Energy. I want them to stay fully integrated into the Tesla company.

Besides, spin-offs are not Tesla's style. It's the opposite of vertical integration.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Heaven I hope not. Supercharging is a fantastic bridge between Tesla Auto and Tesla Energy. I want them to stay fully integrated into the Tesla company.

Besides, spin-offs are not Tesla's style. It's the opposite of vertical integration.

Seriously….no thank you.

We Tesla owners have held through the years where Tesla has been pouring money into building out the Supercharger network. If institutional investors want a piece of that recurring revenue and profits as it finally switches from being a money sink to a money printer, they should have to buy TSLA. Not some spin off company. Would be a slap in the face to Tesla investors.

It would be no different than Tesla spending years and tons of money on FSD and then Optimus only to spin off those companies. Screw that

 

[SOULPEDL]

OT, Elon is on a roll. FDA approves human Neuralink implant.

Neuralink obtains FDA approval to begin clinical human trials of its brain computer interface

Neuralink has announced it received approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to launch a clinical study of its brain-computer interface (BCI) involving humans. Neuralink was founded by CEO Elon Musk in 2016, and […]

driveteslacanada.ca

I'm going to sign up for clinical trials so I can talk to my car directly. I have many questions.

Patient Registry | Neuralink

If you're interested in learning whether you may qualify for current and/or future Neuralink clinical trials, consider joining our Patient Registry.

neuralink.com

 

[Nocturnal]

Mark Fields on CNBC praising charging deal. R Gerber praising it as well. Means tons of charging stations.

Fields speculates others could follow Ford making this the one charging standard for NA.

I think that is all but guaranteed.

It's a no brainer for companies like Rivian now. GM probably won't, maybe STL? The small players will all come on board as the dominant and #2 EV players in the US align to the same standard.