Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

How is your X going to supply power to your home? Unless Tesla makes a hardware change to your X that allows this, it's not going to be possible. We have an X and it would be great if this was possible but I just don't see it happening.

If you simply include the inverter as part of a smart charge-connector, you can simply command the car to close the high-voltage-junction-box contactors and supply DC pack voltage at the port. The smart connector's internal transfer switch then shunts that to the inverter that supplies the house.

No HW changes to the car needed (likely firmware, which is just an OTA update).

 

[SageBrush]

Until Tesla offers "million mile batteries", how can V2H NOT be a warranty liability?

Thermally controlled, 0.1 C-rate discharge above 40% SoC ? Degradation is a red herring

 

[JupiterMan]

I think the point your argument does not take into account is that an EV isn't just an inferior backup to a power wall, but that rather it is in the most important ways....VASTLY SUPERIOR. Drastically higher capacity and drastically lower(0) cost. A single M3 has the capacity of 6 power walls. So a 2 EV household could have the emergency backup power of having 12 power walls, and at literally zero extra cost.

Whilst this might appeal to some markets, the last power cut I can recall at home was years ago, and was only for a few minutes. by the time I would have gone outside and plugged my car in the power would have been back on!

I would like a powerwall/solar combo one day to save on bills and to do the right thing, but the V2G thing for my needs seems pretty unnecessary.

 

[wipster]

Yes and no.

1. Many times, from experience, Tesla upgrades a part but makes it backwards compatible. It fits in the same spot for older cars = no need to manufacture and stock the original part.
2. Assuming Tesla has a relational bill of materials database (BoM), it would be deductive which part is required to replace per permutation of vehicle. It's a long way from an existing mechanic today still looking up static, PDF manual diagrams by model year for an OEM vehicle.
3. Tesla continuously reduces the number of discreet parts in their vehicles. What they lose in variation, they gain in lower part counts.

I agree with you Tesla makes it complex by continuously improving their parts. But nothing a little database smarts and computing horsepower can't help address.

Yep! That was the sign of a good auto parts counter man/person back in the day. Might not match the P/N in the catalog, but it'll work! Brings several great memories back to mind...

 

[scaesare]

I don't remember hearing about a rare earth free permanent magnet motor from them before today.

My questions: Is this not a switched-reluctance motor as in current cars, and instead just PM motor?

Or is it a switched-reluctance motor, but without the current rare-earth permanent-magnet rotor inserts?

 

[Paracelsus]

It depends where you live. Wind and nuclear usually have lowest prices overnight.

Nuclear only offers low prices at night because it is far cheaper for a nuke plant to take a loss on energy sales than to perform a full shutdown and startup of the reactor - an evolution which takes considerable time and results in unnecessary cycling of equipment…..and in some cases different personnel are even required. The expanding renewable grid is uncovering the “help, I have a stranded asset “ nuclear message- similar to the coal message several years ago.

 

[scaesare]

Watch carefully when the first robot unplugs the arm connector- that looks very artificial. The lighting also seems off. There may be bits of staging intermixed with the CGI, but I'm sure there is some CGI in there. We'll know soon enough, one way or the other.

Agreed. That wiring harness/connector motion did not look natural.

 

[Electroman]

"Made the decision to remove the sunroof on Model S because we modeled and tracked it and no one was using it".

I miss my sunroof TBH.

The sunroof in my Lexus, I opened it on the day I bought to check it out and then two more times to demonstrate to someone... a total of 3 times in 16 years and 160K miles.

 

[scaesare]

I don’t get the concern about unpluging your car. First, it only applies during power outages, not for daily usage to avoid using the grid during peak hours. Second, most households in the US have multiple cars, so no big deal to leave one of them plugged in when the grid power is out.

GSP

I found that a bit odd as well, but it may be due to some of Elon's earlier statements that the nickel-based Li-ion packs are not as appropriate for daily deep cycling as iron-based chemistries... so he may be thinking blackout scenarios, as opposed to arbitrage....

That having been said, a number of the cars ARE iron-based now so....

 

[Electroman]

FFS!!!

Why can’t this $$Trillion dollar business set the Effin’ Investor Day VOLUME so we can hear what they’re mumbling about?? Neither my laptop nor cell phones can amplify this adequately.

You are right.. I connected an external powered speaker to my laptop to crank up the volume

 

[SO16]

Sasha does bring up good points.

Although the future looks bright, the amount of expansion going on right now (even with Giga Mexico announcement) are not enough and will take years to come to fruition which means the 20 million by 2030 is questionable.

 

[Tony73]

Whilst this might appeal to some markets, the last power cut I can recall at home was years ago, and was only for a few minutes. by the time I would have gone outside and plugged my car in the power would have been back on!

I would like a powerwall/solar combo one day to save on bills and to do the right thing, but the V2G thing for my needs seems pretty unnecessary.

V2G is extended outage insurance FOR FREE. If all you had to do was tick a box at purchase to get it, no one would turn it down. Heck, if Tesla charged $250 for it, they’d probably get greater than a 10% take rate.

 

[wipster]

Okay then. Tell me how exactly Elon overhyped world domination, multi Trillion dollar value, and a complete reboot of the world’s economies and way of life. I’m all eyes and I’m still sitting down from yesterday’s presentation.

I'm wondering how much of MP3 Elon may have shared with the Executive branch and if that helped warm up the relationship... after all, it's kinda the follow-up/through to the IRA.

If the transformation happens much as Elon laid out, we may have to change our name of our nation to the United States of Tesla!

 

[Drumheller]

Yesterday Tesla showed a plan to convert the world off of fossil fuels. They had numbers, costs, engineering, and answers to common questions. Best plan, by far, anyone has shown to convert to sustainable fuels.

Hardly anyone is talking about it today and wall street is pitching a fit that they didn't get a shiny toy instead.

We live in Idiocracy.


Also, good to see @Krugerrand back.

 

[wipster]

It looked more like it will be a front casting, rear casting, and structural battery/mid section. Each of which will be assembled individually, then mated together. Most of the body panels will already be painted and installed; front fenders, rear quarter-panels, etc. and the hinged parts; hood, doors will have been painted on a parallel track with the body modules (likely from the same paint batch) and installed after the modules are joined.

The graphics indicated the advantages of assembly workers being able to simultaneously work on all sides of each module and how this will speed up the process. i.e.: The graphic showed the dashboard being pre-assembled onto the front module; the rear seat was installed on the rear module; and the front seats, carpet, console are installed on the battery pack (as is being done on structural packs now).

Once these are joined there is minimal work needed inside performing contortionist moves and requiring complex robotic processes. This is very much what I believe is the "Highland" (nod to Ford's Highland Park) processing of the manufacturing, so as to revolutionize the assembly line in a way only Tesla's brain trust could conceive of.

This appears to not be the one-piece "Mattel" like single casting model, yet will still maximize time and effort to reduce assembly time while meeting that objective. Doing a single-casting would significantly increase the time needed to accomplish all the "inside" work and could very likely slow down the overall production rate, thus negating any advantages.

I disagreed because what was shown is the current/future method of assembling the model Y (and probably 3 soon). Gen 3 was not shown yet.

 

[cliff harris]

As an investor, I think the day was pretty good. The share price reaction is just LOL. But this is traders, not investors. It wasn't 'pump and dump day' or 'day trader day'.

My key negatives:

• A second factory would have been nice as a surprise, but perhaps their volumetric efficiency is trending so high fewer are needed?
• I would have loved an update on Cybertruck and semi. Semi was not even mentioned. Cybertruck barely.
• Too much emphasis on cost-cutting. Its good for people who cant yet afford a Tesla, but lets not forget they also sell VERY high end performance Ys and 3d and S and X. The ultrasonic-sensor removal is NOT popular. Some people LIKED the sunroof. You cant sell $120,000 cars and be trying to save pennies.

My Key Positives:
Optimus walking! Not perfect, but all progress is good. Also >1 unit shown!
No more rare earths - what the hell? if Tesla ever advertise, they can humiliate competition with this!
Excellent spread of execs and managers were shown. Gave so many faces to the names. Much more confidence that elons focus and ambition is embedded throughout the organization
Vertical integration and 48v stuff is showing so many places where the competition cannot compete
New method of biulding a car sounds AWESOME. Is this maybe highland? We might start seeing much higher output from shanghai?
Mention of buybacks, in black and white, with everyone present. They are totally planning to do this!

All in, a great day. I laugh in the face of anybody who considers it disappointing. Personally holding every share till $300. Selling 5% at $300, 20% at $400, rest...maybe one day .

 

[CHGolferJim]

Sounds like Jonas understood the presentation pretty well, in Morgan Stanley's latest note.

The key points:

1. "Master plan 3 entails 'Immense' levels of vertical integration. Too many processes and technologies to mention here."
2. "Singular focus on efficiency and scale - it's all about getting costs down. Way down."
3. "Competitors need to change or face potential obsolescence risk. We leave the investor day at Giga Austin asking which of Tesla's competitors can keep up..."
...
7. "The non-unveil of Model 2 disappointed some people - but it shouldn't have. From our experience auto companies don't typically unveil far cheaper and potentially better engineered products far in advance of SOP."

It is a good summary, but SP projection still based on 7m cars in 2030 and seems to exclude Semi, CyberTruck, etc.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Oh ya, forgot about $30 free unlimited charging. And this is why it works out.

" the reason why we can do this is because Texas as a ton of wind. And in Texas, the wind blows at night.”

Cool, so how about day charging in Az then... (ya not much energy use at night, just having fun

Tesla Electric launching unlimited overnight charging plan for $30 per month in Texas

Everybody loves a good deal, and Tesla has announced a new plan that will let owners in Texas charge unlimited overnight for only $30 per month. Tesla now has an energy retailing business known as […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[CHGolferJim]

This is the correct take. A sunroof is a bunch of extra parts and failure points in the roof of a vehicle that fleet wide gets little use. Anecdotal experiences to the contrary can't be taken into account by a company intent on streamlining production and driving down costs.

I seem to always be contrary……..retractable sun/moonroof is a major reason why I keep my 2015 S, other than the fact that it‘s a fabulous car for long trips, looks great and runs like a top.

BTW, does anyone have a link to last night’s slides? I’m shocked to not see them at tesla.com

 

[wipster]

And yet the analysts continue to discount this and fsd. I have spent quite too much time at Walter reed so yeah. A bit fixated on working hands. If Tesla can solve this than there are tens of thousands of amputees that will gain ...so much.

Yep, the implications boggle the mind. For instance, imagine a pair of pants that would allow paraplegics to walk again... or gloves allowing quads to use their hands.

Glad I bought those Wayfarers!