Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[loquitur]

Didn't our TMC courtroom correspondent post something about one of the witnesses answering that he was approached and paid by the attorneys to be a shareholder in the case?

Without pointing fingers at TSLAQ, if so, this would lend a bit of an odor to whether whoever was behind the case were actual shareholders.

Not quite, he was approached by the class-action firm to be plaintiff "representative of the class"
from those who filled out a survey. However, the law firms were careful not to pay $ (that we know of)
except for plane flight/hotel to testify.

However, plaintiffs' firm paid mucho to the two expert witnesses, $350,000 to the first one, Prof. Henson (more than his annual salary as a professor), and $500,000 to Dr. Hartzmark of Forensic Economics.
Hartzmark used to be a professor, but works exclusively full-time as an expert witness now.
(Nice job if you can get it.)

I (and perhaps the jury) found Hartzmark's testimony about stock-price "inflation" confusing, and was actually tripped up by defense attorney Alex Spiro on a numerical contradiction in one of his data tables.
He was claiming there were $12B in "investor" losses to account for during the 10-day period.
It all came to nought.

As for the shorts, they were conspicuous by absence, but I've seen quips to the effect that they
might not have legal standing since they don't quite own what they short. "He who sells what
isn't his'n must buy it back or go to pris'n".

 

[EVCollies]

I have 25 years of engineering experience designing large sheetmetal stuff. and yeah waviness in large sheets of metal is normal for all but the most expensive of stock. Certainly Tesla won't be using such high end stainless sheet for the CT, as a high volume mass production vehicle they'll be using more affordable stainless. So yes we should expect some waviness in the large body panels.

A brush finish would help to alleviate this issue, DeLorean went this route plus it's body panels are relatively small. If they go with the more polished look then some degree of waviness will be visible from certain angles of view. We used flat paints instead of gloss on large enclosures to hide the waviness and improve the aesthetics, it helped a lot.

I had previously thought it was foam under the sheet metal for DeLoreans but according to this source was fiberglass.

 

[UncaNed]

I'm just concerned that I won't have enough lithium for my daily medical needs.

Hmmmm... this sort of thing might explain the behavior of more than a few folks on my ignore list...

 

[Mengy]

Someone at work asked me today what I think TSLA would be worth by 2030. I said that I have seen most updated targets at $1,000.
Is this the general consensus? What do you all think?

I know most people here think a TSLA share price of $1000 is low for 2030, but it's actually what my model predicts. That is assuming the following:

1. Total revenues of ~$2 trillion.
2. 17.5 million cars produced in 2030.
3. 2,700 gWh of batteries used between auto & storage.
4. 1,500 gWh of storage produced in 2030.
5. TSLA has a PE of about 18 in 2030.

Now, a lot of this is very much on the conservative side, I do that on purpose to temper my expectations as I assume things won't go as smoothly as most people expect. The super low PE is an assumption of mine based on slowed growth for Tesla by then, plus a much more hesitant market overall with respect to valuations. I concede this is probably not very realistic, and if I change that PE to 30 instead the SP in 2030 goes to $1,926 in my model, even with these conservative numbers. I also don't include anything for Robotaxi nor Optimus, this is strictly auto & FSD + solar & storage.

Honestly I'd be ecstatic with $1,000 for TSLA in 2030, but deep down I do think it will be much more than that. I'm just not counting on it.

 

[madodel]

Three EV Owners Say Vehicles Were Damaged Charging At Electrify America Stations

If this was happening at Tesla chargers it would be blasted across all mass media. EA really needs to step up its maintenance of their stations.

In this case, the owner says he was two hours away from home. After starting a charge at a 150 kW stall, he says he heard a loud “boom” sound, followed by a bunch of error codes. The truck couldn’t be unplugged from the charger, even after trying the manual release and even trying to pry it off. At some point, he said it appeared that the contacts in the connector had “welded” to the vehicle, and that the service technician was considering taking a saw to the charging cable to get the vehicle loose for towing.

 

[Ogre]

Not quite, he was approached by the class-action firm to be plaintiff "representative of the class"
from those who filled out a survey. However, the law firms were careful not to pay $ (that we know of)
except for plane flight/hotel to testify.

However, plaintiffs' firm paid mucho to the two expert witnesses, $350,000 to the first one, Prof. Henson (more than his annual salary as a professor), and $500,000 to Dr. Hartzmark of Forensic Economics.
Hartzmark used to be a professor, but works exclusively full-time as an expert witness now.
(Nice job if you can get it.)

I (and perhaps the jury) found Hartzmark's testimony about stock-price "inflation" confusing, and was actually tripped up by defense attorney Alex Spiro on a numerical contradiction in one of his data tables.
He was claiming there were $12B in "investor" losses to account for during the 10-day period.
It all came to nought.

As for the shorts, they were conspicuous by absence, but I've seen quips to the effect that they
might not have legal standing since they don't quite own what they short. "He who sells what
isn't his'n must buy it back or go to pris'n".

What gets me is all of the articles talk about a “Shareholder lawsuit”, but the attorneys for the class action paid large sums of money to explain to the juries how options work. That makes me doubt they were able to track down enough shareholders who sold and somehow lost significant money.



Occasional reminder: Options holders (calls or puts, short or long) are not shareholders, they are not TSLA investors, they are speculating on share price over a time period. Short “holders” are not shareholders either, nor are they TSLA investors.

 

[SarahsDad]

On the CT finish, Franz, the head designer, was on a recent podcast and he said that it was some kind of intentional brushed like finish. I’ll have to dig up the podcast since my memory is imperfect, but it surely wasnt a mirror finish.

I wonder how long before someone commissions this artist to pimp out their CT…

Studio Shop Gallery | Bruce MacDonald

The Studio Shop Gallery exhibits an international roster of fine artists with an emphasis on emerging and mid career painters and sculptors.

studioshopgallery.com

Bruce R. MacDonald | Khufu (2022) | Available for Sale | Artsy

Available for sale from MAZLISH GALLERY, Bruce R. MacDonald, Khufu (2022), Stainless steel light sculpture, 34 1/2 × 56 × 3 in

www.artsy.net

 

[Artful Dodger]

Someone at work asked me today what I think TSLA would be worth by 2030. I said that I have seen most updated targets at $1,000.
Is this the general consensus? What do you all think?

$3,246

 

[TesslaBull]

It depends. If I had invested my money 2019 in a M3 instead of leasing it and use the money to invest in TSLA it would have cost me many other M3. Now I drive the car and own money for another 4-5 of them. So I can quite live with my math.

I still say meh....even today, leasing a brand new base M3 vs financing a base M3.

As soon as you start the 2nd lease at 3 years, your net cost(at that point in time) renting is higher than the net cost of having purchased the car.

Rent: $4500 +$349*36 +$4500 for 2nd lease. Total $21,564 out of pocket, and you have zero value, just a rented car.
Purchase: $4500 +660*36(with a horrible 7.25% interest rate)-$7500 federal tax rebate-$2,000 state tax rebate = $18,760. Assuming good credit, this total will be lower. So even with this new, drastically reduced lease rate, out of pocket cost on the lease is higher.

Also, if someone had *purchased* a new M3 in 2019, that car is currently selling for $33,000. A renter gets to make another down payment.

 

[JusRelax]

$3,246

50% annual SP growth until 2030. What do I win?

I actually did the same theoretical calculation after @Sofie asked that question haha.

 

[Coolio2000]

$3,246

So what's your "bull" case?

 

[FreqFlyer]

Meh....I still think a lease only makes sense for those bad at math, even for a business. Rent is a 100% expense. Owning the same car is also a business expense but one can claim depreciation, and have a useable asset once paid for. Buying a car, AFAIK, is always a better value than renting. It's why companies love pushing leases. It's the most expensive way to drive a car, and hence the most profitable way car companies can trick get people to drive them.

Lease a Honda and you will make money or have equity at the end of lease. I made $6000 on my end of lease CRV. Lease a Tesla, and well.....................Doesn't matter if there equity in it because the owner gets none of it. No thanks.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Hopefully it's not polish stainless. THat's like driving a mirror and blinds people on the road as the sun reflects off it. Also it's a finger print magnet and not suitable for rough environments.

What is the Difference Between Brushed and Polished Stainless Steel | Compare the Difference Between Similar Terms

The key difference between brushed and polished stainless steel is that brushed stainless steel has a rough surface, whereas polished stainless steel has a

www.differencebetween.com

Yes, I think they'll go with more of brushed/dulled surface to reduce glare and hide minor blemishes. Nevertheless, a mirror finish is always a headturner, so I fully expect to see some of these polished to a fine shine by their owners. Here's a video showing what can be achieved:

 

[CaliBear1]

It would be a special aspect when you can recognize your CT, parked next to others, due to some visual detail unique to it's creation.

Like snowflakes, every one is different.

 

[StealthP3D]

Assuming the launch versions of the Cybertruck are the rumoured 250 kWh version that means there will be cell capacity for 40,000 Cybertrucks in 2024. Up until now I was assuming a more aggressive ramp with 100,000 in 2024 after 7,000 in 2023. (Sometimes I am an optimist, looks like that 100k is being too much of an optimist). If 40k in 2024, and if they continue to run with 250kWh packs, and continue to build out line capacity, then that becomes 120k in 2025.


So, some interesting numbers.

It's way off-base to think there will be a 250 kWh version of the Cybertruck, especially as the launch version. It should only need 200 kWh to go well over 500 plus miles and I bet the launch version is the 300+ mile version with a battery capacity a lot closer to 155 kWH. I don't know which rumors you've been listening to but it might be a good idea to ignore those "sources" and base your estimates off what we actually know about how Tesla tends to operate.

You need to realize that some of this misinformation is created by those against Tesla to get expectations of Tesla fans so high that the actual release can only disappoint. Misinformation is weaponized to try to achieve their goals. Don't fall for it.

 

[Maarten]

I haven't seen this posted & the Tesla angle is how much anger will be directed towards Tesla/Elon/EVs/China in those countries dependent on ICE car production. With anger, associated anti-EV policies might flow. There's a line in the article saying something like Japan is a one company country (Toyota) and Toyota flexes its advertising spend and I'm sure its political clout to mould the narrative and policies. My guess is that Toyota will be a bad influence in Japan for a long time, unless new CEO really can and will make changes to Toyota & its influence on Japan as a whole.

I sometimes watch the Japanese EV racing & Tesla Model 3 seems to dominate, Taycans seem to overheat on longer races. I wonder how much attention this gets in Japan.

Whatever happens, its just one country and one company (Toyota) - so can't affect things too much but it's a pity that it might slow things down. Tesla has faced worse & won.

Is Toyota Circling The Drain? Will It Take Japan With It? - CleanTechnica

Toyota appears to be circling the drain and the worry is that Toyota's reluctance to go EV will damage the Japanese economy.

cleantechnica.com

The by far out most difficult task of Toyota is the complete turnaround the company has to make.
Even if they would start now, it is imo already too late.
Not difficult to imagine the boardroom talk: "But what about our profits? What will shareholders say?"
Starting a company like Tesla with the right plan ("it couldn't be done", right?) and making sure to have innovative technology without an end is difficult enough.

A little of my experience with the matter:
Just before retirement I had the task to do a reorganisation within a part of an entity, with tens of thousands of people.
But it affected the whole.
Most difficult task I ever had.
And then there were the unions....
Even if they agree with the plan, they will want something in exchange that is not on your plate.

Now Toyota is even inventing fake 'science'.
Apparently the board room there doesn't want to change.
I really pity the people working at Toyota.

 

[Skryll]

Where are you getting those figures? The 3SR lease starts at $349 for 36 months and loan at $660 for 72 months. $4,500 down either option.

Are you talking Y?

Yep, y $54,990 5 seat config

 

[ZeApelido]

60 Megapacks hanging outside of Lathrop Factory and now there is a tent.

It just got real.

Before I was thinking ~5 / day production rate, but I doubt these have been parked for 12 days.

Maybe 10 / day now? Factory would be almost at 20 GWh of the 40GWh annualized run rate already.

 

[Maarten]

I know it's weekend, but nomo lease please...

 

[StealthP3D]

I appreciate this observation and line of thinking regarding the waviness and "imperfections" in the CT's SS panels! I would like to posit and offer a different approach to how to look at these "undesirable" qualities:

Taking Elon's sometimes seen decisions to embrace outcomes, rather than fight them; how about we/they (Tesla design team) encourage these effects which occur during the SS forming/shaping/cutting/joining stages? The results could turn from something that looks like an undesirable mistake to something quite unique and beautiful? Examples might be the flame pattern produced when working copper with a brazing torch; geometric stress lines coming out of stretching any number of materials, the browning on the surface of meats when grilling or roasting, the smooth surface of a pond transformed by the effects of freezing... the list could go on...

What could result from such explorations might possibly be something quite beautiful, and considerably more desirable than perfectly flat and smooth body panels with no personality of their own. Especially considering that all Cybertrucks produced will essentially be the same; in contrast to paintable metal cars that can at least be offered in different colors.

Something to think about.

To be clear, I'm not one of the people who is worried about the waviness, even if Tesla can't tune the production process to get rid of it by production time. That said, I think the original prototypes without the wavy appearance do have a more uniform and higher quality appearance and I think having perfectly flat panels would be a net positive for market value/demand down the road.

To see the waves as "artistic", I think Tesla would need to embrace the waves more and tune the production processes to exaggerate it. Current pre-production units have just enough wave to make it look accidental.