I was going to say “But it’s flatted out around 9.5%”… then looked again.
**giggles**
EDIT: It is the first +1 Cybertruck day I’ve had in quite some time.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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**giggles**
EDIT: It is the first +1 Cybertruck day I’ve had in quite some time.
So are you saying every human uber driver has the same degree of safety? If not, how do you get over it? Check everyone's driving record before getting into a car?
Playing around with the 50% CAGR starting in 2020 with 510k vehicles. In order to meet this goal, Tesla is going to have to produce this many vehicles each year:
2021: 765k
2022: 1.15M
2023: 1.72M
2024: 2.58M
2025: 3.87M
2026: 5.81M
2027: 8.71M
2028: 13.07M
2029: 19.61M
Now I see the basis for 20M units per year by 2030.
2021: 765k
2022: 1.15M
2023: 1.72M
2024: 2.58M
2025: 3.87M
2026: 5.81M
2027: 8.71M
2028: 13.07M
2029: 19.61M
Now I see the basis for 20M units per year by 2030.
I have a bit of bad news for you then. (Sorry @wipster another bad news post from Ogre)
HW6 is going to be safer than HW4. You might want to wait a bit longer.
PS: Shouldn’t the bar be “Is it safer than a human”?
More like HW3 will remain a Level 2 ADAS, and who knows how many more iterations will be required to produce a generalized Level 4-5 robotaxi. Nobody has any idea what that looks like and won't know until it exists in the real world, which it doesn't.
Also not sure if training on new hardware iterations will be applicable to hardware on previous gens. I'm pretty sure any change in camera location/geometry/number, any change in sensor fusion, will be applicable only to that specific configuration.
Yeah, I can see management taking out a piece of semi-log graph paper and straight-lining between 2020, 510k and 2030, 20.0M. Regression would give you the CAGR of a little over 50%. Bingo. Perfect exponential growth.
Just wait until HW69!!!
Seriously though, everyone keeps saying better. While HW4 is smaller, quicker, and cheaper than HW3, if Tesla is to be believed, it shouldn't affect FSD, EAP or any of the other programs that utilize it, otherwise they would figure out a way to upgrade it.
I doubt the people clamoring for it could tell the difference in a blind A/B test. But time will tell.
If you do 510k in 2020 and 20M in 2029, and take the 9th root of (20M/510k) you do get almost exactly 50%
I know you've all been waiting for my take, so here it is.
Earnings call was upbeat. Tesla is being nimble again: on-the-fly adjusting to the new macro reality (including the IRA) which now means, for the mission: incredibly aggressive pricing to lead to even wider uptake. and even faster uptake. More butts in seats in 2023 = more cars sold in 2024 (advertising Tesla style).
And, for scale, the Model Y already beat the F-150 in volume last year. At inflated 2022 prices.
The downside of lower margins is easily overlooked when one realizes they are still industry leading and the company is still growing profitably.
(Not) coincidentally, Mr. Akio ("silent majority") Toyoda stepped down immediately after. Bullish AF for the slugabeds, there: soon may they wake for all our sake.
Tesla aiming for 2M cars (while guiding for 1.8M due to recent spate of world changing events) made sense to me, anyway. Also, gotta give the press something controversial to spill ink over. Then the Twitter spiel, less said there the better.
The ongoing hints about TE and the hints that major announcements might come on Investor Day were quite tantalizing.
Yes, still seems to me they are dragging out 4680 ramp-up as long as possible. Makes sense if you are still tweaking Line 1 to not finish out Lines 2-4 until Line 1 is dialed in, but I really, REALLY want to see those babies take off this year. Cheaper, mass-producible using less energy, way fewer wiring connections per battery pack, all that mess. Cheaper cars, cheaper Semi's, cheaper Megapacks.
My humble request for 2023: drown 'em in 4680's.
That is all.
HODL
Earnings call was upbeat. Tesla is being nimble again: on-the-fly adjusting to the new macro reality (including the IRA) which now means, for the mission: incredibly aggressive pricing to lead to even wider uptake. and even faster uptake. More butts in seats in 2023 = more cars sold in 2024 (advertising Tesla style).
And, for scale, the Model Y already beat the F-150 in volume last year. At inflated 2022 prices.
The downside of lower margins is easily overlooked when one realizes they are still industry leading and the company is still growing profitably.
(Not) coincidentally, Mr. Akio ("silent majority") Toyoda stepped down immediately after. Bullish AF for the slugabeds, there: soon may they wake for all our sake.
Tesla aiming for 2M cars (while guiding for 1.8M due to recent spate of world changing events) made sense to me, anyway. Also, gotta give the press something controversial to spill ink over. Then the Twitter spiel, less said there the better.
The ongoing hints about TE and the hints that major announcements might come on Investor Day were quite tantalizing.
Yes, still seems to me they are dragging out 4680 ramp-up as long as possible. Makes sense if you are still tweaking Line 1 to not finish out Lines 2-4 until Line 1 is dialed in, but I really, REALLY want to see those babies take off this year. Cheaper, mass-producible using less energy, way fewer wiring connections per battery pack, all that mess. Cheaper cars, cheaper Semi's, cheaper Megapacks.
My humble request for 2023: drown 'em in 4680's.
That is all.
HODL
Oooof! Loving Power Hour.
We don't know, as nobody asked. We might find out when they release the 10Q.
ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
We are very close to max volumen ever... isn't it about 230M?
I don't like this definition of sandbagging.
IMO, this would go along like 'state a number that will make your audience not unhappy while there is a very good possibility to actually perform great'
I had no idea it might involve "unfair advantage" piece. YMMV
EDIT:
This is what I found - "to conceal or misrepresent one's true position, potential, or intent especially in order to gain an advantage over"
this definition is MISSING the word unfair. I like this expanation better.
source
Was 231M earlier this year. But I just saw 232.39, so it may be the max.
I am driving safer than 'a human' with random sampling around me. The question is, can it drive safer than the safe humans...
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