Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

Another case of some forum members aggressively trying to silence those of us who were pointing out all the contradictory signs coming out of China.

 

[EVMeister]

So 34K more production than deliveries with the what 35K inventory at Q3 end. So where the F are the 70K cars that havent been delivered?

Dumped in the ocean.

/s

 

[betstarship]

Use an ASP of $57k, that would equate to ~$92B in automotive revenue annual run-rate

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Martin Viecha

https://twitter.com/MartinViecha

Mark your calendars for Tesla’s Investor Day on March 1st! (not the same as the Annual Shareholder Meeting) Some of our institutional and retail investors will be able to attend in person (details to follow) and see Giga Texas production line & meet management.

 

[dl003]

Can we keep this type of bait out of the forums here? This is an obvious troll to start a political discussion.
Tesla will get the MOST money of any player from the IRA. How is this even a discussions?

I think the rules suck. I think price caps are COUNTERPRODUCTIVE. But to think that it was written specifically against Tesla while they will get the most out of it? Nonsense.

At this point, I’ll believe it when I see it.

 

[Moon Buggy]

I'll be curious to see how this gets sugar coated. Getting a little harder to project the same degree of growth into the future. Some degree of PE compression was clearly justified.

 

[MABMAB]

Another case of some forum members aggressively trying to silence those of us who were pointing out all the contradictory signs coming out of China.

View attachment 891407

There has been a lot of silencing going on here!

 

[traxila]

Tomorrow might well be a bloodbath, but it is worth remembering the SP is DOWN SIXTY PERCENT since the 19th of September! In the past ten weeks!

So we really cannot be sure what will happen tomorrow, as this may be priced in.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Well... now I don't have to worry if I'm going to skim some for a rainy day.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The fact they were offering large discounts at end of quarter should have been a big red flag.

 

[Knightshade]

From the list posted earlier Wall Street consensus itself got nearest to correct on production -- 438.8k vs 439k actual. Best single estimate was Gary Black (436k), followed by Farzad and Troy at 443k and 430k respectively.

For deliveries everyone estimated much higher than the 405k actual, with the "nearest" being the IR compilied consenus at ~418k and then 4 others bunched up within a couple of 420k... (troy at 423k and Farzad and Rob Maurer way off at over 430k).


Production being that much higher than deliveries will reinforce the demand cliff narrative and be cited every time someone repeats the "Tesla sells all the cars they can make" line

 

[cab]

Tomorrow might well be a bloodbath, but it is worth remembering the SP is DOWN SIXTY PERCENT since the 19th of September! In the past ten weeks!

So we really cannot be sure what will happen tomorrow, as this may be priced in.

"priced in". Good one trax! Glad to see you still have a sense of humor!

 

[bigsmooth125]

What's that I hear? It's the bell for people to get in line where crow soup is being served. Anyone who doesn't retract their criticism of Troy has zero credibility.

 

[Ogre]

P:439,000
D:405,000

Gonna be a bumpy first week of 2023.

This plus the giant middle finger from the US Government is going to be a nasty double F* you tomorrow.

Maybe it’s priced in, but we’re certainly not seeing any sort of recovery in the near term.

 

[SOULPEDL]

So new Factory exploration in Canada/Mex would be for another product? Hmmm....

(Edit: Maybe just timed to be ramp ready for recovery from the recession. Higher risk builds using the same product offerings, unless huge price drops or something new besides Cybertruck and Semi. Again, Hmm...)

 

[thx1139]

So I put Oct and Nov production at about 310K. That means December at about 130K. Figure 50K Fremont, 25K Berlin and Austin combined. Leaves 55K for Shanghai.

 

[EVNow]

You might enjoy having your tax dollars working against Tesla in favor of legacies but I dont.

There are several headscratchers in terms of classification among legacy models too. Anyway, its still preliminary and no doubt companies will petition treasury to make changes (and they most definitely will).

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Lots of anecdotal evidence of people cancelling orders because of Elon's antics. Maybe it is time to take that more seriously. If 15k people cancelled orders in past couple months, that is enough to go from estimates to the actual numbers.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

Elon hurting demand with his inexcusable behavior still looms large.

 

[EVNow]

What's that I hear? It's the bell for people to get in line where crow soup is being served. Anyone who doesn't retract their criticism of Troy has zero credibility.

Troy got it wrong ... the Troy detractors here, got it even more wrong.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609960922608709633