Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590156716788047873

This is a dashcam video of another car changing lanes and hitting the Tesla.

Is this what is being referred to as a "FSD accident"? Saying this is akin to FUD.

Also, several folks asked if FSD was engaged and he didn't answer that I could find. But it most likely would have caused a collision either way as the car changed lanes very quickly.

 

[MC3OZ]

With 1.7 kWh/mile it's probably more like 850-900 kWh for the pack.

Even so, why use analysis assuming Tesla would only make the 500-mile trucks? That's way off. In the 2017 Semi reveal, the range slide highlighted that the vast majority of routes are under 250 miles.

View attachment 883521

• The mission is better supported by selling more trucks because that strategy displaces diesel demand faster

• It appears that battery supply will be the fundamental limiting factor, and 300-mile range truck will have only about 500-550 kWh per truck.

• For the US market at least, selling a greater quantity of trucks with smaller batteries is heavily incentivized by the $40k commercial clean vehicle credits from the IRA.

• One of Tesla's other major goals with the truck is to reduce the human health impacts of diesel exhaust pollution, which is a function of how many EV trucks are on the road and how many people are being exposed to the pollution. This too tilts the comparison in favor of trucks for short haul local deliveries with lots of driving in densely populated areas.

• The competitive advantage of diesel vs. battery trucks is strongest for short-haul local deliveries because with start and stop cycles the diesel truck is wasting fuel and wearing on the brakes and transmission, whereas the electric truck is just sipping on the battery thanks to regen braking. The greater acceleration power of the electric also will help it make deliveries substantially faster than a diesel truck on these routes.

If the average battery size is 600 kWh per Semi then Tesla would only need 30 GWh to make 50k trucks, which is well within Giga Nevada's current output of about 40 GWh/year.

I have speculated on Semi batteries here:- Tesla Semi

 

[MP3Mike]

I like your overall thinking but take a closer look at the trip graph supplied by Tesla and I think you will find that, based on 1.7 kWh/mile, the battery is probably closer to 950 kWh because you have to account for the fact that the trip started short of 100% SOC and ended with considerably more miles remaining. If so, the 300-mile battery is probably closer to 580-600 kWh.

Is that 1.7 kWh/mile for the example trip or what was used for the 500 mile rating? I think it is for the rating and not the trip.

 

[Discoducky]

Is that 1.7 kWh/mile for the example trip or what was used for the 500 mile rating? I think it is for the rating and not the trip.

It is for the trip as Elon responded to a question about the 500 mile range. It erased ambiguity for me. YMMV

 

[MP3Mike]

It is for the trip as Elon responded to a question about the 500 mile range. It erased ambiguity for me. YMMV

No. The question was not about the trip, it was purely about the Tesla Semi's rated 500 miles of range and efficiency:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1598631136980131843

Well, let’s do some math. Range, 500 miles. Efficiency is 2kWh/mile so let’s estimate around 1000kWh.

@elonmusk

Replying to
@shortword

@M3Marcel
and
@WholeMarsBlog
Current efficiency is 1.7kWh/mile, but there is a clear path to 1.6, possibly 1.5

So I don't think you can use any trip details together with the stated 1.7kWh/mile number.

 

[SmokyPeat]

No. The question was not about the trip, it was purely about the Tesla Semi's rated 500 miles of range and efficiency:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1598631136980131843

So I don't think you can use any trip details together with the stated 1.7kWh/mile number.

Doesn't seem implausible that it's both. IE, it got 1.7kWh/mile on the 500 mile run and there is a buffer to the 500 mile stated range.

 

[MC3OZ]

At Shanghai Port, Tesla's remaining inventory is being cleared, and a cargo ship of Angie Ocean Corporation is docked at the wharf and loading Tesla, which should be delivered domestically.

 

[MP3Mike]

Doesn't seem implausible that it's both. IE, it got 1.7kWh/mile on the 500 mile run and there is a buffer to the 500 mile stated range.

That isn't how Tesla normally rates there batteries. They purely use efficiency times available capacity.

And the trip didn't use the whole battery, so no buffer would be exposed. So the buffer works be in addition to the 7% the trip didn't use.

 

[Paul_SF]

I think you guys are not taking into account that “owners-operators” in the trucking industry will disappear in the next 5to10years tops.

You all can see what is happening with crazy buildout of warehouses all around major metro areas and in strategic locations. Everything is moving to hub to hub and last mile delivery. That will only be accomplished by big companies/fleet operators. IMO.

So yeah, who’s stressing about the little guys not having where to charge their Tesla Semi, it’s completely unnecessary.

 

[Discoducky]

No. The question was not about the trip, it was purely about the Tesla Semi's rated 500 miles of range and efficiency:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1598631136980131843

So I don't think you can use any trip details together with the stated 1.7kWh/mile number.

Not how I read it, but I'm ok with that knowing that time will tell. Happy to mark this post and revisit.

 

[SmokyPeat]

That isn't how Tesla normally rates there batteries. They purely use efficiency times available capacity.

And the trip didn't use the whole battery, so no buffer would be exposed. So the buffer works be in addition to the 7% the trip didn't use.

Maybe they felt safer being extra conservative with the range figure. That's what I meant by buffer. If Elon says it can achieve 1.7 kWh/mile and better, I'd assume it did 1.7 kWh/mile or better on the 500 mile trip. We'll just have to wait for the official word from Tesla on the battery capacity. My guess is around 915 kWh usable.

 

[Discoducky]

PSA The internet is simply invested with bots, I can't believe how many I'm coming across in just about any place I visit (any major service where folks are commenting/responding to other folks). It is rampant and getting insane to the point where it looks like several bots are having long conversations.

The likelihood that any comment you read or response you get is a bot has gone way up in just a few short weeks. And that was up from a few weeks before that.

Also, I wouldn't put it past 'journalists' to ramp up their use of AI generated 'articles' in the coming days as #ChatGPT is not only free, but you can use it all day, everyday as much as you want. See below as all the journalists are having the AI write articles, students getting their papers written, poems written for @ZeApelido ...etc

 

[AudubonB]

PSA The internet is simply invested with bots, I can't believe how many I'm coming across in just about any place I visit (any major service where folks are commenting/responding to other folks). It is rampant and getting insane to the point where it looks like several bots are having long conversations.

The likelihood that any comment you read or response you get is a bot has gone way up in just a few short weeks. And that was up from a few weeks before that.

Also, I wouldn't put it past 'journalists' to ramp up their use of AI generated 'articles' in the coming days as #ChatGPT is not only free, but you can use it all day, everyday as much as you want. See below as all the journalists are having the AI write articles, students getting their papers written, poems written for @ZeApelido ...etc

View attachment 883559

Have we bots writing posts in this forum (other than @ZeApelido and, of course, me)? But more seriously, if this is not requesting divulging a secret sauce, how do YOU know of what you just posted?

Asking for……humanity.

 

[MP3Mike]

If Elon says it can achieve 1.7 kWh/mile and better, I'd assume it did 1.7 kWh/mile or better on the 500 mile trip.

Exactly, it did better than 1.7kWh/mile on that trip, which is why it used less than a full charge. That could be because of the lower speed limit in California, traffic, temperature, tail wind, etc...

 

[SmokyPeat]

Exactly, it did better than 1.7kWh/mile on that trip, which is why it used less than a full charge. That could be because of the lower speed limit in California, traffic, temperature, tail wind, etc...

Bottom line- we don't know the battery capacity, and won't know until they tell us. Who's to say it won't go another 25 miles after the display first indicates 0 miles range?

 

[AudubonB]

Errrr....amusing bits notwithstanding, and thank you for the smiley face, but I could not have been more serious in my question to @Discoducky regarding his post.

 

[JusRelax]

There has definitely been FSD beta crashes. Even Teslaraj showed a video of his car running into a car that turned right into his lane. However FSD crashes that have caused any injuries are yet to be found because we know there will be a feeding frenzy on such a news.

The first crash in this youtube video is supposedly while on FSD Beta, but once again it's clearly not FSD Beta's fault. Wouldn't accidents involving FSD Beta (even if it's not FSD Beta's fault) still have to be reported, just like autopilot accidents, though?

 

[Singuy]

This is a dashcam video of another car changing lanes and hitting the Tesla.

Is this what is being referred to as a "FSD accident"? Saying this is akin to FUD.

Also, several folks asked if FSD was engaged and he didn't answer that I could find. But it most likely would have caused a collision either way as the car changed lanes very quickly.

Fsd beta was engaged. It seems that he changed some verbiage from the original post and now its less obvious it's FSD beta. Here is his respond to someone saying FSD beta would have prevented this accident and TeslaRaj saying it Def won't.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590180450106241025

 

[EVNow]

Also, several folks asked if FSD was engaged and he didn't answer that I could find. But it most likely would have caused a collision either way as the car changed lanes very quickly.

Raj later commented that he was using FSD. There is some discussion on this in the 69.x thread. Looks like an avoidable accident ... but clearly the other car's fault.

FSD Beta 10.69

There's almost 3 seconds there from the time the car entered the lane and FSD Beta still drove right into it. Yep, absolutely no precedent for these kinds of accidents with autonomous systems: This Arizona college student has taken over 60 driverless Waymo rides "Most sideswipe crashes (eight...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[wipster]

I seems to me that fake FUD outlets have been created for the sole purpose of writting FUD sugar.

v o x . co m
t h e s t r eee t .. c om
insert new FUD site here...

It is much easier to create online one than real B&M printing site and just spread FUD.

That FUD is easily used FUDsters to manipulate. Buy 100 domains, insert FUD to each one, present as legit sites to control stocks.

Vox.com is not all FUD I've read some good reasoned articles there in the past, but this one is definitely NOT that. From negative headline through the "discussion" it is definitely a hot steaming pile of poo. Let's hope people that make decisions perform their due diligence after the misfortune of reading it.

Analogy with a Simpsons episode? Really?