Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Doesn't it seem apropos that AJ would be toasting with an empty/imaginary glass?
He and GOJO elicit the most visceral response from me.

Paid professional spin Masters.
No, I do not like them one bit.

Edit to say GOJO is not really a pro as he seems to be a company of one....with a Moose head.
 
Let me explain the disagree.

1. Aren’t you always telling people to post in the proper threads? If so, making a post here about a NEW post on an OLD topic that everybody knows has dedicated threads and isn’t supposed to be talked about here anymore is, well, I can’t use those words. Why? Just why?

2. A bloody poll!? Really!? After Elon gets skewed for doing them for all the reasons that get listed every damn time about why they are meaningless.

3. Stop talking about it. Stop bringing it up. People have short memories as a general rule. There would be no overhang, it ceases to exist if people stopped talking about it.

4. Not within forum rules.
 
I don't have the actual note (probably can be found on Twitter if you are brave) but Jonas points out that "Despite challenges including decelerating demand and price cuts in China, Tesla is the only electric vehicle maker covered by Morgan Stanley that generates a profit on the sale of its cars."


I still don't understand how this isn't brought up more often. Who cares about specs, or battery tech or any of the crap others claim they have when they can't build at a profit?
For control and manipulation. If they don’t talk about it, it doesn’t exist. It’s a ‘slight of hand’ technique. Look over there, not over here while I pull the rabbit from the pocket its been in the whole time. Decide what you want the talking points to be not what the talking points should be.

People want to be tricked. They want to be told what’s important. They want to be guided and have their hands held. If none of that was true, the crooks and thieves and magicians would never be successful.
 
Just now I saw an articles on the front page of a dutch stock news website I frequent (iex.nl) talking about how Tesla's SP seems low. Translated:

"Tesla at $170, what is going on?!" (paywalled, didnt read it)
And another from yesterday:
"Tesla: a fundamental 'yes' or a technical (TA) 'no'?" (Author thinks it might be time to buy some stock)

I hardly ever see anything remotely positive on this site regarding tesla or the stock itself, so thats something.
 
Just now I saw an articles on the front page of a dutch stock news website I frequent (iex.nl) talking about how Tesla's SP seems low. Translated:

"Tesla at $170, what is going on?!" (paywalled, didnt read it)
And another from yesterday:
"Tesla: a fundamental 'yes' or a technical (TA) 'no'?" (Author thinks it might be time to buy some stock)

I hardly ever see anything remotely positive on this site regarding tesla or the stock itself, so thats something.
The dump is complete, now it is time to pump.
 
Were you around for the dot com boom and bust? It was littered with market darlings who lost $ on everything but planned to eventually make it up in volume.
What’s your point as it relates to @Nocturnal ’s comment that was in turn related to Tesla specifically. Because your comment here has no relation to Tesla’s business. Tesla wasn’t around during the dot com era and Tesla has in fact shown how economies of scale should in fact work.
 
Just now I saw an articles on the front page of a dutch stock news website I frequent (iex.nl) talking about how Tesla's SP seems low. Translated:

"Tesla at $170, what is going on?!" (paywalled, didnt read it)
And another from yesterday:
"Tesla: a fundamental 'yes' or a technical (TA) 'no'?" (Author thinks it might be time to buy some stock)

I hardly ever see anything remotely positive on this site regarding tesla or the stock itself, so thats something.
Amara's Law: "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run,". We are on the cusp of the short run starting to evolve into the long run.
 
Bluntly, no foreign automaker has been successful in Korea.

In my opinion it would be insane for Tesla to build anything in Korea.
Well, that settles it then. South Korea it is.

The more audacious the plan, the more people think it can’t be or shouldn’t be done, the more likely Elon is to do it.

Remember China? No way Tesla can have a factory in China without a Chinese partner. 🤣😂🤣😂🤣

Calling it: South Korea Overhang
 
So this note makes it official: AJ couldn't wring any cheap shares out of Uncle Leo last week in Singapore. :p

Fh0JszuVQAEI4Dn


Cheers!
You know and I know what the conversation was about after the small talk. Whether anyone else believes it doesn’t matter.
 
What’s your point as it relates to @Nocturnal ’s comment that was in turn related to Tesla specifically. Because your comment here has no relation to Tesla’s business. Tesla wasn’t around during the dot com era and Tesla has in fact shown how economies of scale should in fact work.


The post I replied to was about OTHER EV MAKERS operating at a loss and they didn't understand why THAT wasn't considered by most folks looking at the business vs Tesla.

I cited the best known recent example of the market doing exactly this kind of thing in the past- overvaluing companies in a new and exciting market that weren't actually profitable and had no clear path to get there without giving due credit to the rare example that WAS profitable (or at least had a clear path to getting that way).


So yes, it was directly related to the post to which it replied.


If you want a dot-com era direct parallel I'll point to Amazon, back then dismissed as "just a bookstore" much as Tesla is dismissed by many as "just a car maker" now...both lost billions in their early years but unlike others in their fields had pretty clear paths to eventual huge revenues and profit if you knew enough to look for it and which was obvious with scaling.

Contrast with say Rivian that loses $ on every truck they make, and has no clear path to solving that- indeed they increase losses as they scale and admit they will keep doing so.
 
@TrendTrader007 is back in the house yo. He has had a chequered history but he influenced me back in the day.

Looks like he has left Twitter. Don't scare him away.
I have always followed TMC on daily basis because this is the single best intelligent collective of Tesla information anywhere.
Papafox is absolutely indispensable and first thing I read every morning
Twitter is a waste of time
If I may add here: there is a cottage industry of so called Tesla influencers on Twitter and YouTube which may or may not be worth your time. Only time will tell. Count me skeptical.
There are exceptions of course like Dave Lee and Tesla economist who are genuinely good in my opinion. Many others are quintessential losers chasing ephemeral fame. Nobody comes close to Papafox. Period. End of story
 
Last edited:
Well, that settles it then. South Korea it is.

The more audacious the plan, the more people think it can’t be or shouldn’t be done, the more likely Elon is to do it.

Remember China? No way Tesla can have a factory in China without a Chinese partner. 🤣😂🤣😂🤣

Calling it: South Korea Overhang

Recall, only Nixon can go to China. S. Korea already makes some good EVs (Ioniq, Kona), and lots of hi-spec LG Li-on batts. So for the same reason that Tesla will never make their own cell phone, Tesla doesn't need to fix Korea.

So where else? Osaka's ripe. Mazda plans to start building hybrids by 2027? FFS. Toyota? Bullet Train Wreck. Ad nauseum. Tesla needs to fix Japan. Jus' saying.

Fix Aus too while they're in the neighborhood (okay, hemisphere). Not with a vehicle plant, but a Megafactory to bury coal once and for all (and stay buried). AGI deal with MCB will be pivotal. Aus is ripe for disruption. Tesla is the rupter. ;)

Mexico? Yes, because it makes sense, as does Quebec (if only for the maple syrup) :D

Brazil? Something has to give first. India? Needs a revolution, but that's not our way.

Europe? 2nd factory in Berlin for Model Zwei, needs a Megafactory for TE somewhere there too. Russia/Ukraine? Biggest opportunity of the 21st century, if we survive the war (need to convert grid to renewables + bty storage while rebuilding damage).

What have I missed? Robots & the decoupling of the size of the Economy from the available labor force and it's cost curve. That's gonna leave a mark. ;)

Cheers to the Longs!
 
Last edited:
Well, that settles it then. South Korea it is.

The more audacious the plan, the more people think it can’t be or shouldn’t be done, the more likely Elon is to do it.

Remember China? No way Tesla can have a factory in China without a Chinese partner. 🤣😂🤣😂🤣

Calling it: South Korea Overhang
FWIW, I never argued against China, even before Tesla managed to own it's factory outright.. I still think that has been brilliant and will continue to be. One factor in having that happen could be Tesla's willingness to have a government supplier of employees.
Korea is distinctly different. However, I also think Tesla can continue to have great success with South Korea, as they have proven with multiple major suppliers, and those with competing Chaebol, itself not at all easy to do.

I'm very interested to learn what will happen next. After all, Elon does have a very long history of accomplishing 'impossible' things. I'd be pleased to be proven wrong, even though I do not expect it to be a China-style solution if it does happen.
 
S.Korea -- just negotiation tactics with Indonesia?

China cars can't be imported to S.Korea/Taiwan ... tariffs/security ...so that might be one reason ....
One key point from the battery day presentation is the footprint of the battery factory, which was even noteworthy and surprising for tesla itself. This could mean that in order to achieve global battery supply might need multiple extra factories. Obviously, in the rest of the world a small form factor car will be a huge hit and will need more batteries. So maybe both Indonesia and S Korea?
 
  • Like
Reactions: advocate8