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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Today in the «competition is coming»: VW id.buzz.
I’ve long been a sucker for the old hippie vw buses, so since 2004 I’ve been anticipating the new bus. And this weekend I got the opportunity to take it for a test drive. I’ve been thinking it would be a great car for active families.
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Positives: It’s a fun ride! Snappy, surprisingly responsive, good view from driver seat, eye candy interior, and partly nice on the outside even though I really think the designers should have had the courage to keep more of the retro elements.


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Then, for the rest of it… the battery is 77 kwh and I had it using about 280 wh/km so we’re in the 320 km range. The infotainment system… well no surprises there… it’s unintuitive and horrible, imo.

Finally for the active families part… it’s surprisingly small inside compared to it’s big exterior. Pillars are like 20 cm/7 in wide (or more?) so walls take up lot of space. Maybe collision safety is very high?

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There is no room under the back seats so there is no way to fit skis or bikes inside the trunk. You can have a roof rack, but then you might as well have another type of car.

I can fit a Model S in my garage, but this one, not. Too high. For me, the id.buzz won’t add any value compared to the Model Y I have reserved.

Still, I think VW will sell all of these that they make, to those who are loyal to VW and have anticipated the new bus, afaik the production volume for 2023 is 120k.

Next year, the slightly longer 6- and 7-seater will be open for order. Maybe my skis will fit in that one? 😅

Cheers to the longs!
Thanks for the review. We won't get this short version of the VW Buzz in the US, only the roomier, longer version.
 
Kinda confused on the increase price for Model 3 to capture the $7500 credit idea Troy has...


He seems to believe they'll stop using CATL LFP cells in order to qualify- so what he thinks they're gonna switch SRs over to 2170s? 4680s?

And the LR would need to cut, not raise, the price to qualify given the 55k cap...in fact many speculated the suspension or LR orders in the US a while back was specifically to they could release a 55k version for January (giving buyers a MUCH lower net price of $47.5k on the LR).
I think he is proposing eliminating the SR Model 3 will raise the average price.

I can see some scenarios where they lower the price on the LR Model 3, eliminate the SR and the average profit per vehicle could be higher. The margin on the current SR is probably the lowest of all the vehicles.

I think Tesla just stopped advance ordering the LR to avoid the hassle of people delaying orders etc in anticipation of a lower price. They are still making them an you can buy one from inventory pretty easily it appears.

They know they will sell every LR they can make with the $7.5K rebate and a lower price after Jan 1.
 
the relentless selling based on what
recession, competition, demand ,
valuation, growth ?
seems like irrational fear
Allegedly "Greed" is driving the market right now: https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed 🙄

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First model s plaid registered in Norway! source: Tesla Registration Stats

unfortunately, the price in Norway is lower, so not as high margin as those sold in the US.
In the Netherlands also, already in October (see the 4th table):
 
A 2 million a year run rate is within months.

That alone could translate into a $20 billion profit
Run rate within a year.

The present mkt cap of $650 billion would imply a forward p/e of 32.
for a firm growing way above 40%.

We are in the value zone, just my opinion.
And add on battery megapack production from Lathrop facility for revenue estimate as well.
 
Gotta say from Elon's perspective now would be a good time to get to work on a new comp package vis a vis the SP but man I'm hoping we don't have to deal with that soon.

In other news, Eu and Korea still complaining about the EV subsidy. I have no idea how this resolves but I assume there is a decent chance this doesn't break entirely our way.

 
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They can't take cars from China and US 3s will be saved for the domestic market?
Nope. They're bringing Y's for Taiwan over from Germany and saving the Fremont Y"s and 3's for the US market so that they'll be eligible for the $7,500 rebate... prolly 3's eventually too.
 
Allegedly "Greed" is driving the market right now: https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed 🙄

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I watch that index closely, and it’s not too helpful when it comes to “risk on” equities like TSLA. The index covers the entire market, and the DOW has been doing well lately, including today.

So the good news is that investors are starting to come back to value stocks. The bad news is that they are still avoiding growth stocks like the plague. I don’t think that will reverse until inflation Is coming down.

Of course at this rate of SP decline and profit increases, TSLA becomes a value stock!
 
Looks like U.S. demand is going to remain strong.


There was question when the legislation was passed as to if Teslas would qualify due to the battery mineral sourcing stipulations, and the general consensus here was that at some point the relevant agencies would provide clarification/guidelines.

Have we seen that or know for a fact Tesla's qualify at this point?
 
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