Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bdy0627]

CNN is attacking
Get ready for big drop in Tesla sales - CNN

Their prediction is that Q1 deliveries are going to be a huge decline from Q4, so Tesla may run out of cash. Hmm. Why not wait a day or two and write an article about the actual delivery numbers? I guess it's important to get the narrative spinning a little early.

"New York (CNN Business)Tesla is probably about to report the largest drop in auto sales in the company's history."
"Tesla will report first quarter sales and production figures Tuesday, and Wall Street analysts expect them to be sharply lower than the 90,700 cars that the company sold and delivered to customers last quarter. Analysts predict Tesla delivered just over 50,000 cars over the last three months."
"That could also stir up new concerns among some investors about whether Tesla has enough cash going forward."

 

[dc_h]

Wouldn't expect them to start loading until Wed (that's Tuesday's batch of 1K). Then about 4 days Model 3 prod and a few S/Xs to fill the ship. Then 4 days for the other side of the world. Then maybe 4 days for N. American SRs? This is where I get fuzzy, it'll depend upon US inventory at end of Q1 I think. Definately want to front load the early part of Q2 with oversea production. I think they need a day off, and a few more to clean up the scratches and confetti.

Cheers!

I’d suggest the first two or three ships go to Europe. It would be nice if they had two berths at port 80 as well.

 

[AlexS]

There were 8 model 3 registered in Sweden during February.
Source - transportstyrelsen.se
What were these regulatory issues?

here is something
https://electrek.co/2019/01/29/tesla-sales-ban-sweden-over-strange-update-concerns/

 

[madodel]

And what about Canada? People always forget about Canada... let's add 5k there. So:

20k EU + 20K China + 30k US and Canada = 70k

Easy Peasy! I'm buying calls tomorrow.

Oh, and where can I get a job as an analyst?

You would be rated overqualified and bankwupt.

 

[Beltsbear]

here is something
Sweden threatened to ban Tesla sales over unclear over-the-air update and Autopilot concerns [Updated]

Here is an article with a sensationalist title that was a nothingburger.

 

[pz1975]

Their prediction is that Q1 deliveries are going to be a huge decline from Q4, so Tesla may run out of cash. Hmm. Why not wait a day or two and write an article about the actual delivery numbers? I guess it's important to get the narrative spinning a little early.

"New York (CNN Business)Tesla is probably about to report the largest drop in auto sales in the company's history."
"Tesla will report first quarter sales and production figures Tuesday, and Wall Street analysts expect them to be sharply lower than the 90,700 cars that the company sold and delivered to customers last quarter. Analysts predict Tesla delivered just over 50,000 cars over the last three months."
"That could also stir up new concerns among some investors about whether Tesla has enough cash going forward."

The BS that we know we will see is that once the numbers are released, every headline will say the delivery consensus was 75,000 or whatever and no one will mention this 50,000 number anymore. They will do everything they can to make any possible delivery number look like a miss.

 

[Cosmacelf]

MODERATOR:
For the sake of all that is important, PLEASE do not post anything that might be considered material on 1 April without also noting whether or not this is an April Fool's Prank.
It is great to have fun, as no one knows better than your favorite Mod, but on today of all days, it is appropriate to confine such postings to items that in no way could be considered material (or, unfortuantely, On Topic but so it goes).

NOT an April Fool's post. Other than it being posted on 1 April.

~~~Thank you~~~

You mean we have to self decide whether or not something is material? Are you sure the SEC is OK with this?

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

CNN is attacking
Get ready for big drop in Tesla sales - CNN

Eh, I wouldn’t call that a hit piece. Just a generic article with a clickbait headline, and headlines are normally produced by an editor, not by the writer. The headline is even technically correct— analysts’ estimates predict the largest quarter-over-quarter sales drop in Tesla’s history. That’s a misleading comparison— normally, you’d do a year-over-year comparison (which would show the strong growth Tesla has actually experienced), but that wouldn’t produce a scary clickbait headline.

 

[KarenRei]

Don't know why (am lying in bed, trying to sleep with a storm raging outside), but I'm stuck with the image of me working at a restaurant, and noticing some papers on the table of a guest that indicate she's Cheryl Crumpton from the SEC, and responding by pouring a ring of salt around her table, lighting some candles around the circle, and chanting, "Exorcizamus te, omnis immundus spiritus, omnis satanica potestas, omnis incursio infernalis adversarii, omnis legio, omnis congregatio et secta diabolica...", and if any of the other guests asks what's going on, calmly informing them that the Devil has visited the restaurant, but not to worry, I'm taking care of the situation...

Okay, back to trying to sleep...

 

[Paracelsus]

This is interesting. Last minute news from CNN dropping the level of Q1 deliveries all the way down to 50,000. This is total Fake News at the finish line..........another set up for a beat IMO. Anyone else smell the makings of a manipulated squeeze here?

"Tesla will report first quarter sales and production figures Tuesday, and Wall Street analysts expect them to be sharply lower than the 90,700 cars that the company sold and delivered to customers last quarter. Analysts predict Tesla delivered just over 50,000 cars over the last three months."

Get ready for big drop in Tesla sales - CNN

Yep, that honestly says only 50,000. What the hell.................. It's certainly another good data point supporting our decision to throw out our TV & Cable after the last election as well.

 

[AlexS]

Here is an article with a sensationalist title that was a nothingburger.

Yes, but there was one article in Swedish I was reading after they delivered first car, but I can't find it. There was clearly said that deliveries were postponed because of some regulatory stuff. Also there were on TMC several Swedes complaining that they had paid the money but couldn't get possession of the car. But now it is all cleared so everything is fine and more than 1k Model 3s delivered in Sweden.

I hope one day, better soon, Tesla will have certified service in Estonia and open M3 deliveries to my country too. We will have soon new incentives for EVs as company cars and taxis. I hope Tesla will not miss that(Someone tell Elon). Back in the days Estonia had second highest EV adoption rate after Norway. After cut off of generous incentives it crashed. But now there is Model 3, many people can afford that.

138 EV's were sold in Estonia in 2013 (0,69% EV Share), far less than the 506 sold in '12, when the Estonian market was only behind Norway regarding EV Share (2,39% in '12).

Yes it is a small market 1,3mil people only, but we have passion for fancy cars.

 

[tivoboy]

This was some NICE price action..

I'll believe it when we're confidently over 300$, more like 315$

 

[oneday]

Eh, I wouldn’t call that a hit piece. Just a generic article with a clickbait headline, and headlines are normally produced by an editor, not by the writer. The headline is even technically correct— analysts’ estimates predict the largest quarter-over-quarter sales drop in Tesla’s history. That’s a misleading comparison— normally, you’d do a year-over-year comparison (which would show the strong growth Tesla has actually experienced), but that wouldn’t produce a scary clickbait headline.

Yeah, It bears repeating.

Q1 2018 deliveries:

• S & X: 21,815
• Model 3: 8,182
• TOTAL: 29,997

 

[EVNow]

And in some markets (Japan, S. Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, etc) the 3:S+X ratio will be zero. 3 is not available everywhere. Also - for whatever you can trust the InsideEVs numbers - the ratio for the US is 3,35 to 1.

That said, 4 probably isn't a crazy ratio to go with. But 60k Model 3s is pretty low. 5k better than consensus, mind you.

I theme I keep coming back to is that Tesla made a lot of changes to S&X price (and even trims & shifts) in Q1. One way to interpret that would be to say they were experimenting to increase sales. That is why I'm bearish on S&X numbers.

I won't be surprised if S&X is between 10 & 15k - with 3 being between 60 to 65k.

 

[Unpilot]

Just snapped this pic of the hotel van in front of ours. It's a Zenith

 

[defc0n]

This was some NICE price action..

I'll believe it when we're confidently over 300$, more like 315$

$315 is the fair price value in this channel TSLA has been stuck in. To be honest the $300 price point hasn’t done much of anything in terms of support or resistance.

 

[ggr]

Yes, that's exactly what has happened. I figured that was a sign of the conversion process.

Yes, that's what I thought too, but it's more like escrow or a trust than the conversion beginning. I tendered mine straight away, on the first call, but they've extended the deadline twice since then. Our of interest, is your number 577992209? That's mine... I assume yours would be the same.

 

[VValleyEV]

CNN is attacking
Get ready for big drop in Tesla sales - CNN

Wow. It seems CNN has added a “Ludicrous Mode” FUD level.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

If that really is what Wall Street is expecting, we longs should be licking our chops. I think they should easily beat that by a good 20% at very worst.

Then they will complain that the company is burning too much money trying to fulfill demand.

 

[Carl Raymond]

And soon there will be a Tesla Tequila Store too.

Selling

View attachment 392663

Teslaquila, not Tesla Tequila. Otherwise it’s just not punny.