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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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It bugs me a little how the media consistently talks about "the vote at the annual meeting to approve the split" as if the board needs a shareholder vote to approve the split.

It didn't need shareholders to vote for that last time and doesn't this time.

This only reinforces just how little the talking heads actually understand what they spend their time covering.

Last time it had enough authorized shares to do a split.

This time it does not (unless it were a very narrow and awkward one like 1.8:1 or something)

The board could vote to "announce a split pending shareholders passing a vote to approve more shares but they absolutely do need a shareholder vote to actually perform the split because currently not enough authorized shares exist to do even a 2:1 split- and the board can not increase that number without shareholder approval.
 
Some types hydrogen vehicles burn the hydrogen.

A truly crummy technology. NOx, oil dilution, hydrogen embrittlement, gas leakage, low energy density of the hydrogen, awful efficiency producing, compressing, storing, transporting the stuff.

It's just a cover for Big Oil to continue business as usual, but unfortunately governments like it and are throwing plenty of taxpayers' money into it (at least in the UK).
 
A truly crummy technology. NOx, oil dilution, hydrogen embrittlement, gas leakage, low energy density of the hydrogen, awful efficiency producing, compressing, storing, transporting the stuff.

It's just a cover for Big Oil to continue business as usual, but unfortunately governments like it and are throwing plenty of taxpayers' money into it (at least in the UK).
Its also cover for OEMs. They can build engines. They are actually amazing engineering accomplishments. Todays modern gas or diesel engine is just amazing. Incredibly complex engineering and production.
 
Real answer appears to be we had folks insisting Elon has the best advisors, yet turns out he filed the wrong form 13, and did so 4 days after the deadline to file it.

I imagine the explanation here will be both were intentional as a middle finger to the SEC.


As to how it relates to Tesla, you can be sure the SEC will cite these additional violations of regs in court in their ongoing disputes regarding Tesla as Musk being willful and intentional in his violation of SEC rules and authority.


(and they'd be right- Elon has been pretty clear he has no respect for the SECs rules or authority.... where this gets tricky is he objectively has solid points on why they suck- but so far the actual judges hearing the cases seem more interested in sticking to the rules than how much the SEC sucks)
4 days may be Elon time, or may be based on stock stettlement and transfer to the Trust.
As to wrong form , 13G may be appropriate as "passive" does not mean what many think: https://media2.mofo.com/documents/faqs-schedule-13d-g.pdf
The SEC has noted that the subject matter of the shareholder’s discussions with the issuer’s management may be dispositive in making this determination, although the context in which the discussions occur is also highly relevant. For example:
Generally, engagement with an issuer’s management on executive compensation and social or public interest issues, without more, would not preclude a shareholder from filing on Schedule 13G as long as such engagement is not undertaken with the purpose or effect of changing or influencing control of the issuer and the shareholder is otherwise eligible to file on Schedule 13G.
 Engagement on corporate governance topics, such as removal of staggered boards, majority voting standards in director elections, and elimination of poison pills, without more, generally would not disqualify an otherwise eligible shareholder from filing on Schedule 13G if the discussion is being undertaken by the shareholder as part of a broad effort to promote its view of good corporate governance practices for all of its portfolio companies, rather than to facilitate a specific change in control in a company.

 By contrast, Schedule 13G would be unavailable if a shareholder engages with the issuer’s management on matters that specifically call for the sale of the issuer to another company, the sale of a significant amount of the issuer’s assets, the restructuring of the issuer, or a contested election of directors.
 
UK new car registration numbers were released today by the SMMT. A short thread here:

Like in the time of the Beatles, this trend will cross 'the pond' shortly and the good ol' US of A will be clamoring for even more than all the 3/Y's that Austin + Fremont can crank out.

Build Model Y's by the hundreds of thousands, crush the SUV market with them, and create an EV constituency with some real electoral heft. Get that to put a stop to the fossil fuel prop-up political rearguard actions already coming out here in Texas (and other states).

It's all going according to plan, Smithers!
(rubs hands together)
Release the hounds felines!!!

Enlightening anecdote: my CEO came by my office yesterday asking how I liked my Model Y. He is an old school conservative's old school conservative. He has a performance Model 3 on order and has already bought a home charger. Market penetration, baby.

Focus on production, crank 3/Y's out WITHOUT MERCY, scout on new factory locations.
Oh, Elon said that's what they are doing?
:cool:
 
I would hope the stock split would be soon. What's the earliest possible?
And then, hold back Masterplan 3 until right after the split. Stock would be at 150 by then, considering a 1:10 split, then MP3, and boom off we go.

The new shares will be approved (assuming it passes, which it will) at the annual shareholders meeting- no date announced yet, but pre-covid is was usually in Juneish timeframe (covid years it was months later)

So it absolutely can't happen before then.

Tesla said it would release additional details in a definitive proxy statement ahead of the meeting, which IIRC someone said had to be out my May 2nd? (don't know source of that date off hand though so might not be accurate- hopefully someone else can chime in on it)




4 days may be Elon time, or may be based on stock stettlement and transfer to the Trust.
As to wrong form , 13G may be appropriate as "passive" does not mean what many think: https://media2.mofo.com/documents/faqs-schedule-13d-g.pdf

That quoted section is informative- but pretty clearly is just about the kinds of discussions the shareholder can have under a 13G. Actually becoming a board member is active, period full stop.
 
How long before YAHOO! Finance updates their EPS Consensus from $2.26 to at least =>$2.54 (Q4 '21 Actual).

Pros:
- less compensation for Elon than Q4 '21
- vehicle price increases taking into effect
- greater manufacturing efficiencies

Cons:
- higher materials, labour and shipping costs

Screen Shot 2022-04-05 at 9.53.09 AM.png


Edit:
I see YAHOO! Finance already raised their estimate from January 27th (shown below). They will have to do better than their current estimate (shown above).
Screen Shot 2022-04-05 at 10.13.29 AM.png
 
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I need to slowly sell some shares this spring/summer for various endeavors, and I was thinking today of what SP I wanna target.

Obviously I'll do my proper TMC duty by selling aggressive covered calls to trigger the selling.....but what's my strike?

I thought to myself, when SP recovers back above a 200 PE any time after 2Q earnings....I'd be ok with that. I always do the math wrong, can someone tell me that approximate SP based on TMC projected earnings?

I'ma guess somewhere around $1,760.

I'll tell you how I would do that:

One of the ways I manage investment risk is to NEVER (OK, almost never) invest ANY money I know I will need in around the next two years. This is a "squishy" rule in that the amount I project I will "need" and the timeframe are somewhat malleable depending upon whether market prices seem to be on the lower end or the higher end of normal trading ranges and how easy it would be for me to delay the cash expenditure if thing go south and I don't want to sell. Knowing that you have to sell a stock soon puts you at risk of selling out of fear after a normal, but very temporary drop.

While selling early can sometimes cause me to leave some potential profits on the table, it also means I have never had to liquidate stock at prices well below what I thought their reasonable value was. And this is important because I know how quickly things can go south even when the future looks bright. The drops are temporary though so my two-year rule (which is sometimes stretched to months if the prices are simply not attractive for selling) has saved me a lot of profits over the years.

How you structure your personal rules should depend upon how important your planned purchases are to your happiness. If the planned expenditures can be delayed without undue duress to your life, then you can push the limit closer. Likewise, if a refinance of a house or property could meet your upcoming cash needs, the line can be pushed closer. If the expenditure is unavoidable and there is no other practical way to raise the cash, then you should err on the side of caution. Just remember, things can go south for a year or two or more when you least expect it and these kind of moves down can come on fast and strong with zero warning and that is true for the market as a whole but especially true if your wealth is highly concentrated in one company.

In other words, the answer to your question is so tied to your personal need for cash that no one can really provide a meaningful price target for you.
 
That's more Honda than GM. Honda is in a really difficult position at the moment.
I would argue GM is also in a difficult position ... only difference is the narratives GM is spinning and perception ... GM results are not much better than Honda right now ... at least Honda is not squandering capital yet ...or advertising dollars
 
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Highly complex creatures are fuel cell powertrains. Highly engineered and complex. You actually increased complexity going from ICE to FCEV. Going straight to EV greatly reduces complexity. It is very doubtful that China Inc could have successfully competed with Japan Inc on FCEV for decades. Japan Inc expenditures on FCEV could have funded a sea change in battery capabilities, instead they worked on the moat for FCEVs.

Interesting take -- thanks.

I have read a different angle, that may be additive to what you mention:
Toyota/Honda receive HUGE Gov subsidy to pursue FCV development. The Gov choice of a hydrogen economy was an attempt to wean Japan off its oil dependency. As for why they thought that other fossil fuel dependencies were a good idea -- I'm not sure, but we are talking about an initiative that started a couple decades ago, when low cost Li-x batteries were at best a gleam in the eyes of a few kids.

Maybe the Japanese Gov policy was rational back then but an unwillingness to pivot has been painfully obvious for at least 5 years.
 
Interesting take -- thanks.

I have read a different angle, that may be additive to what you mention:
Toyota/Honda receive HUGE Gov subsidy to pursue FCV development. The Gov choice of a hydrogen economy was an attempt to wean Japan off its oil dependency. As for why they thought that other fossil fuel dependencies were a good idea -- I'm not sure, but we are talking about an initiative that started a couple decades ago, when low cost Li-x batteries were at best a gleam in the eyes of a few kids.

Maybe the Japanese Gov policy was rational back then but an unwillingness to pivot has been painfully obvious for at least 5 years.
Yep Japan inc is a huge monolithic beast. Once it moves it has an incredibly hard time changing direction. By the time they recognized the potential of EVs (Toyota had a sizable stake in Tesla I believe) they also recognized the danger and doubled down on FCEV.
 
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Would you please spell out your decision criteria for exercise vs. sell for profit, and timing?
Obviously, the SP would have to be above $1230 for exercise (otherwise it would be cheaper to buy the shares on open market), and I would not want to wait until the last days to make a decision (time value of the options evaporates in the last week). I will wait until the earnings report, which is a month before the expiry, and see the financial results and the market's reaction to it. If the SP rises significantly above the 1230 limit in the days following the Q1-ER (say 1300+), then I will exercise preferring the long-term gains I expect from the shares rather than the immediate profit from option sale.
 
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Its also cover for OEMs. They can build engines. They are actually amazing engineering accomplishments. Todays modern gas or diesel engine is just amazing. Incredibly complex engineering and production.
Indeed, and a huge amount of the hardware and software complexity comes as a result of trying to clean their poisons to the minimum extent they can get away with. Layer upon layer of weight, expense, complexity, software, calibration, sensors, actuators. Ridiculous really and they really need to be done away with ASAP.