Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggies07]

I realized waiting for FSD rains on people's investment thesis because at least 1/4 of you have no faith in AI it seems.
Oh well.

I know it will happen and I know Tesla will be the leader, I posted about ARK Invest's thesis on this yesterday. I've been here since 2012 reading and interacting with the autonomous EV discussions and when it will happen....it's now 2022 and Elon just said again "It's right around the corner!"

Yet, the world continues to get warmer and degrade. So I'd prefer them to stay on the "making cars as cheap as possible" route until they figure it out.

It's like Elon is pulling the rug under the industry's feet before it's ready....

 

[henchman24]

The call was a disaster. The tone was all wrong. They should have kept driving the point that while there may be more supply chain challenges, they are confident in their 50% growth target, the two new factories have started production, and earnings will be even higher this year. They should literally have said that at the end of every question instead of sounding negative.

Yup and saying FSD is the answer to future growth and profits is going to scare investors that don't believe in Tesla's approach. I'm not in the least bit concerned about the stock in the long term (or even short term), but the call was a miss and unfocused.

 

[Nocturnal]

Elon sounded frustrated with the lack of appreciation for autonomy, but I can't blame people too much. It's been a long time coming. Casual observers will just see years of promises and not understand the progress and challenges.

 

[betstarship]

Just a FYI: Q3/2021, day-after-earnings end-of-day share price was... ~$894

In fact, here's the share prices for day-after-earnings end-of-day since Q4/2020:

Q4/2020: $835.43
Q1/2021: $704.74
Q2/2021: $644.78
Q3/2021: $894

 

[Singuy]

I don't believe market caring right now about Tesla's qrowth post 2024. They are way too shortsighted. With those numbers and guidance for this year, the spring is extremely coiled.

I believe the way Elon handled that question turn some investors bearish. FSD is currently the only execution fails at tesla because unlike any of their other products, we are still stuck at this "dream" phase (kind of like what Elon said, we want to go to the moon but that's just a desire to which is the easy part).

If Elon framed it as "currently our demand for our 3/y products are beyond our expectations, and with the advent of FSD that we feel can drive demand further, we feel the 25k car is not yet necessary. However we do believe in making teslas affordable to all this project will be executed depending on market conditions ". That would have been a better answer.

Right now analysts are discounting high demand for teslas due to a shortage of new cars in general and may not last as supply chain ease.

 

[thx1139]

This is one of the specific items that Moody's called for in their recent credit upgrade letter:



Moody's upgrades Tesla's corporate family rating to Ba1; outlook positive

Don't look for a credit upgrade to "Investment Grade" from the geniuses at Moody's. That wouldn't sit well with the shortzes.

Analysts are hung up on the old model. They firmly believe that manufacturers have to have many models to sell cars. Thus manufacturers like GM have had the same car sold under different names with a different badge on them. They are thrilled to hear that GM will have what 20, or is it 30 models by 2025 (Well at least they say that). How many of those will be the same car with different names? Tesla simply doesnt believe that and doesnt want to cut sales of Model 3 and Model Y for lower cost, lower margin cars unless it dramatically increases sales volumes.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Did people honestly think there would be a positive reaction to products unveiled 3-5 years ago being delayed yet again?

 

[Discoducky]

The biggest problem with FSD right now is bad map data. I don't know when Tesla will stop relying so heavily on map data but doing so will always result in drives full of interventions if that route has incorrect data. Right now FSD cannot complete my work drive because it thinks this on ramp to the hwy still exist which doesn't for more than a year now. And no matter how godly v11 or v12 is, I have to take over if it routes me to a barrier. Cities that are growing like gangbusters have new roads put in and old roads rerouted constantly. I don't know how Tesla can solve this issue in real time yet as I have seen zero progress in this area.

Agree and someone on Twitter posted that V10.9 has switched back to Google maps. I haven't received 10.9 yet (there's a nasty body controls issue with Model X I saw on another thread) but if someone has gotten 10.9 you should have also gotten a map update. This can be easily checked in settings/software or you could look at the bottom right of the map itself and it should say something like "map by Google". Now, this doesn't mean that that FSD gets way better immediately, but it should have some good improvements. I, for one, am very happy to see this transition back to using Google for the map. Google has by far the best system for keeping the map up-to-date. PM me if you'd like more details as I used to work in Google maps.

 

[betstarship]

Did people honestly think there would be a positive reaction to products unveiled 3-5 years ago being delayed yet again?

Me; shows focus

 

[pitabun]

The call was a disaster. The tone was all wrong. They should have kept driving the point that while there may be more supply chain challenges, they are confident in their 50% growth target, the two new factories have started production, and earnings will be even higher this year. They should literally have said that at the end of every question instead of sounding negative.

Said they'll achieve 50% growth with only Fremont and Shanghai. Plus they always have a cautious outlook every earnings, bring up problems they're facing, tone is always off.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Sold off all remaining APPL shares and was able to get 134 TSLA at $860....future has never been brighter.

 

[GOVA]

Many seem to forget previous trends and hope for WS to magically improve. Many seem to be myopic in regards of what Tesla has been doing and Elon has said. Many had disregarded gloomy outlooks presented here as something impossible to happen.

Well, here we are this morning. WS is the most corrupt machine ever created. Bears-teslaQ-shorts will never let go, they will use every second and every penny to pursue their agenda. Tesla fundamentals don't matter to them. Actually, nothing matters really.

As long as we are tied to WS this will happen. There will be better times for sure, but don't count on WS to react as you think they should.

Zero surprise this morning. Zero.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Me; shows focus

Then you clearly don’t understand how the market works.

 

[Boomer19]

- stock down ~25% off highs.
- blowout quarter and year.
- heading towards ~33% off highs and uptick rule the next day

i would think enough fear has set in now. but guess not.
seems reasonable. love these markets.

 

[Singuy]

Huh?
Vehicles growing at 50% YoY (or more depending on demand)
Storage growing to TWh
Software growing to be more profitable than vehicles

Roadster, Cybertruck, Semi, are 2023 onward growth. New factory(ies) are growth 2024 onward.

I am talking about today's price action which I already posted my prediction earlier. It's not a prediction going forward, just for today.

 

[nativewolf]

I either said it wrong or read your post wrong. I was saying that Uber has no-shows and the Robotaxi needs to have zero no-shows.

Oh I apologize Jerry. Did not read that correctly, probably my fault.

 

[betstarship]

Then you clearly don’t understand how the market works.

Does anybody? Who would want to? I look at company fundamentals and research the macro environment to best understand it imperfectly.

 

[henchman24]

What won't be overlooked soon is the EPS upward revisions. Right now we have an unwinding a swing and earnings traders. EPS for 22 is going to shoot over 10, and likely 11 by consensus. 23 is going to be modeled and be a driver of value soon... and that should start >16. Once the unwinding happens and these estimates come into play, we will see upward pressure on the stock.

 

[elasalle]

Sold off all remaining APPL shares and was able to get 134 TSLA at $860....future has never been brighter.

Planing on doing the same tomorrow after todays earnings ...

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Does anybody? Who would want to? I look at company fundamentals and research the macro environment to best understand it imperfectly.

I said nothing about Tesla’s future, fundamentals, financials…etc.

All I said was that this reaction was predictable from the market. This is nothing new.