Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

Meanwhile Tesla continues to expand in Lathrop, CA with the new Megafactory: (for Megapacks)

Tesla is leasing new land as part of its California expansion — for $1 per year

True to CEO Elon Musk’s word, Tesla is expanding its presence in California despite the company officially moving its headquarters to Texas. And amidst this California expansion, Tesla has leased nine acres of land to support its operations in Lathrop — all for a very reasonable price of $1 per...

www.teslarati.com

Will be interesting to find out where the battery cell supply will come from.

For stationary storage, it could all be LFP, which means CATL or other Chinese company. There is much less of a LFP battery supply problem.

 

[MP3Mike]

No they only install guide if "wear and tear is too high" upon visual inspection.

Wrong. From the notice: https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2021/RCLRPT-21V00D-5923.PDF

Tesla Service will inspect the trunk harness on affected vehicles for wear. If wear is determined to be within specifications for the coaxial cable, Tesla Service will equip the harness with a guide protector to ensure a sufficient radius when the harness holds in a closed trunk state and prevent further wear. If wear is determined to be beyond the specifications for the coaxial cable, Tesla Service will install a new harness and guide protector.

Every vehicle will be inspected and gets a guide protector. Some will get a new harness as well.

 

[petit_bateau]

70k total local+export for Dec would be significantly more than in Oct and in Nov for local+export, which were 37k and 42k respectively. At least that is the numbers Troy (I think I recall) passed to me (thank you Troy). If the 70k l+e is correct then that is quite a step up. If it is 70k for local only then that would be even more impressive.

 

[bkp_duke]

For stationary storage, it could all be LFP, which means CATL or other Chinese company. There much less of a LFP battery supply problem.

US patents on LFP expire April 2022. Would be nice to see some US-based suppliers pop up to shorten the supply chain at this facility and thereby improve margins overall on megapacks.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes, but I don't think cash is king. I think Tesla and the ability to [employ people to] deliver value to society is king.

My cash to TSLA positions are an order of magnitude different. I have no plans to change that, less for financial reasons and more for "invest in people imperative" reasons. [That means not an advice].

Cash is most definitely king in a recession and ‘buys’ all the unemployed people that results from a recession. Heck, cash will buy those unemployed people the education and training they’ll be lined up to take to be eligible for a position at Tesla.

Oh, yes. A big wave of change is heading into shore.

 

[jbcarioca]

I realize I had made my recession comments without pointing out how Tesla is exposed to recessions:
1. They are deeply cash positive. Perhaps the only major player in auto and energy supply that is so conservative.
2. None of their dealers will fail! None! perhaps that is because they have none.
3. Their DOH is the lowest in the auto industry, and their order backlog by far the largest. Thus if deep recession happens they have plenty of time to cut back.
4. The Gross Margins have steadily improved, production cost steadily reduced, transportation cost fo completed vehicles and parts is steadily improving.
5. The Supercharger network has turned from an expense center to a profit center, which will accurate as interoperability rises.
6. The Supercharger network growth is increasing, and has prima facie cash flow positive state already. That is speculation, but I think it is true.
7. Battery costs are rapidly going down while supply is steadily increasing, so starved sects like TE are poised for cash flow positive growth.
8. Upcoming models can use existing technologies including motors, BMS, cells, OS and much else, making new model Capex to be much reduced.

Just those eight points help Tesla to be far more recession resistant than most other businesses. In fact they are poised for much further growth even in recession because they still are not even present in many major markets, even in countries where they do have presence. For example in recession they may have better chance to service presently prohibited US States for direct sales.

Quite clearly Tesla has minimal risks as a result of recession. They do have specific facility risks due to fires, flood, earthquake, drought or other calamity but geographical diversity in facility location is.reducing that risk.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If you were wondering if Wall St was going to ignore this new data, there’s your answer haha.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Our views on profit behavior when in a monopoly position are different.
When a friend's Mazda 3 headlight cost $2000, he sold it and bought a Ford.
The monopoly position on spare parts makes customers sensitive to "profit" at their expense.
Lack of sensitivity to a monopoly position and monopolistic pricing causes customers to move to other brands and explain their abandonment of a brand they advocated for with facts easily shared with others - repair receipts.


["Charging for tires" shows that you may not understand monopoly power or the customer's sensitivity to having no choice. There are a lot of people like that... mandate people that say "do this or you lose a 20 year investment in a career and any way to earn income." So I understand your perspective well.]

$650 for a Tesla stock wheel seems pretty reasonable. It's $4,500 to upgrade to 21" Arachnids. If I were you I would complain about that instead. Their cars are overpriced too. They should sell them at cost so they don't lose customers to Ford.

 

[jbcarioca]

Cash is most definitely king in a recession and ‘buys’ all the unemployed people that results from a recession. Heck, cash will buy those unemployed people the education and training they’ll be lined up to take to be eligible for a position at Tesla.

Oh, yes. A big wave of change is heading into shore.

Yes, but I don't think cash is king. I think Tesla and the ability to [employ people to] deliver value to society is king.

My cash to TSLA positions are an order of magnitude different. I have no plans to change that, less for financial reasons and more for "invest in people imperative" reasons. [That means not an advice].

These two posts are directly on point in my opinion.
@22522 is correct IMO about TSLA, but is not seeing the truth clearly. TSLA is hugely cash rich, being so will make them more liquid in recession. That in turn reduces investor risk.
@Krugerrand describes one fo the chief advantages of the TSLA cash rich position.

This time I do think the difference is not substantive but reflects the limitations of vocabulary. Perhaps we might just say the TSLA cash positions and superb acid test ratio, might actually be improving our individual acid test ratios because our TSLA shares will themselves be highly liquid in recession.

 

[Cattledog]

If you were wondering if Wall St was going to ignore this new data, there’s your answer haha.

Really low volume so far, perhaps that picks up or picks up Monday.

 

[Singuy]

Really low volume so far, perhaps that picks up or picks up Monday.

Seems to be following qqq as they are attacking the 400 support.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Btw, when I posted that Elon tweet predicting a recession, I mentioned that might be why he sold more Tesla shares than necessary. I don’t think he did it to protect his overall net worth, he did it to have cash should SpaceX need it. If a recession does hit, raising money for SpaceX will be hard, and he’s been through that wringer before and has no wish to repeat it, hence he is taking precautions. And SpaceX is at an inflection point right now … if Starship encounters difficulties, it’ll be sucking up a lot more money.

But what is right for Elon isn’t necessarily what is right for us. I’m not planning on propping up a cash hungry startup, so I don’t need lots of cash. And right now, with inflation bearing down upon us, holding cash is the second worst thing you can hold (first is bonds).

 

[2daMoon]

Really low volume so far, perhaps that picks up or picks up Monday.

With New Years Day tomorrow I'd suspect quite a few potential traders/buyers have extended their weekend and aren't in the game today.

Your Avatar needs higher resolution. I seem to remember that building in the background... but it is a little fuzzy.

 

[22522]

These two posts are directly on point in my opinion.
@22522 is correct IMO about TSLA, but is not seeing the truth clearly. TSLA is hugely cash rich, being so will make them more liquid in recession. That in turn reduces investor risk.
@Krugerrand describes one fo the chief advantages of the TSLA cash rich position.

This time I do think the difference si not substantive but reflects the limitations of vocabulary. Perhaps we might just say the TSLA cash positions and superb acid test ratio, might actually be improving our individual acid test ration because out TSLA shares will themselves be highly liquid in recession.

Thank you for the clarification. I would like to add a little more adjustment working from the Larry Page perspective.

Elon has had an infinite bank in goodwill (and confidence in both mission and capability) that translates into available cash for a long time.

You are right in that I see something different than you see.

I see commitment to the mission as transcending cash, because with competence and will the mission can attract cash.

So Tesla is not protected from bankruptcy by cash in the same way Ford or GM would be.

Tesla has a cushion of cash, but the protection comes from competence aligned with mission as understood by the richest people on the planet. Ellison has money, too?

If the mission and competence go away, the cash is just like any other automakers, or Apple's, cash.

 

[Unpilot]

My view from the cheap seats is this.
An earthquake has happened, and a tsunami is coming to Wall Street.

They have installed an early warning system....but never use it. They don't like what it is telling them, so they ignore it.

I'm already on high ground, so I will be fine. Hope you guys are as well.


Edit to say the selling today (or lack of buying after the china news) is what I mean about ignoring the early warning indicator.

 

[Unpilot]

Thank you for the clarification. I would like to add a little more adjustment working from the Larry Page perspective.

Elon has had an infinite bank in goodwill (and confidence in both mission and capability) that translates into available cash for a long time.

You are right in that I see something different than you see.

I see commitment to the mission as transcending cash, because with competence and will the mission can attract cash.

So Tesla is not protected from bankruptcy by cash in the same way Ford or GM would be.

Tesla has a cushion of cash, but the protection comes from competence aligned with mission as understood by the richest people on the planet. Ellison has money, too?

If the mission and competence go away, the cash is just like any other automakers, or Apple's, cash.

Because your wheel cost more than you like....you leap to mission and competence going away??

 

[ZachF]

Something I hope Tesla eventually makes is a six wheel HD Cybertruck

Ultra large 300KWh+ battery for towing. Designed to compete with HD duallie trucks.

 

[FireMedic]

My 2018 Model 3 has 65,000 miles on it. Yes, mine is out of warranty. I'm a part of this recall, I just checked. I'm not sure how important this is that I need to have it addressed immediately, my backup camera works and has worked without any problems. I suppose I'll figure out a time when I'm available to drive to the service center just to have this fixed.

You don’t need to be “in” warranty for recall repairs.

Just received this notification for Tesla for our model 3 which is also affected.

“No immediate action is required if you own a Model 3 vehicle affected by this recall. If you experience a loss of rearview camera display, you may continue to operate the vehicle by performing a shoulder check and using your mirrors when backing. Tesla will contact you to schedule a service appointment when parts become available in your region and inspect and retrofit your vehicle, all free of charge.”

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

With New Years Day tomorrow I'd suspect quite a few potential traders/buyers have extended their weekend and aren't in the game today.

Your Avatar needs higher resolution. I seem to remember that building in the background... but it is a little fuzzy.

Or ya know….it’s all just a sham.

Practically every auto maker out there is having a decent to great day. TSLA will be held down for as long as possible until the coil springs again. Wall St makes their money in de-valuing options for as long as possible and then moves in and rides the sling shot higher.

Pretty much rinse and repeat. Thankfully Tesla’s earnings are now growing to a scale where it will force the issue.

 

[joh01652]

Some comedy to start the day...

This morning's New York Times paper edition has the front page headline "Can a Dirty Mine Fuel Tesla's Green Ambitions?", complete with pictures of toxic sludge and mine tailings, impoverished children, and belching smoke stacks. Pages A10 and A11 are devoted entirely to framing Tesla/Musk/Tesla Owners as environmental and social hypocrites in almost every paragraph, and states "...manufacturing electric vehicles emits nearly twice as much carbon dioxide as does producing cars run on fossil fuels..."

My favorite line: '"Going green" or "acting local" are nice bumper stickers for a Tesla.'

The closing paragraph: "Green nickel is not green for us," said Gilbert Atti, the groom's brother. "Tell that to Tesla, that big American company."

Anyway, a real doozy, even for the Times, hahaha, they definitely put a bit of effort in this one.

In other news, the Dieselgate-scandal settlement check involving our Sprinter van came in the mail yesterday--the $3,515 will symbolically go to buying TSLA shares.