Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Boarding a flight home, maybe no connection… No matter, no orders to trade, makes it easy! Is it Friday yet?

Today open is pure nonsense. Gonna guess it returns… oh too late, oh wait… yup. Congrats on any dip buying!

 

[dw4ngg]

They should be well over 2M after 2021. Cumulative deliveries thru 2020 was ~1.4M

Does anyone have a spreadsheet tracking the total number of vehicles delivered? Elon mentioned during the Lex Fridman interview that they were over 2M now. I'm not sure how recent that would have occurred, but might that give any clues to production?

 

[NicoV]

How can you be "CEO" of an organization of ONE??

I am also CEO of my own company of one. Somebody has to do it. Although I prefer the flemish term ‘DDA’. See Het Vlaams woordenboek » duvel-doet-al (you all know google translate right?)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Cannot compare capitalization directly to expenses because there’s PE ratio. 200 x 350k is $70M extra expense, with forward PE of 200 that’s $70M x 200 / 1.09T capitalization = 1.3% impact to SP.

Usually the market shrugs off one-time events after awhile. But after adding a little fear, 1-2% doesn’t seem entirely out of line short-term, whether short term is hours, days, or weeks.

Besides, this is the perfect time for MM to guide SP towards max pain or whatever other magic number helps someone, and one more buying opportunity. BAU!

Pretty sure a cost of a recall is already covered by warranty reserves. The only time a recall should effect the stock price is if the recall costs more than what’s in the warranty reserves or it effects current production…..neither of which is the case.

And you would only ever factor something like this in forward P/E if it was going to be a recurring ongoing cost in the future, which it isn’t

 

[petit_bateau]

Does anyone have a spreadsheet tracking the total number of vehicles delivered? Elon mentioned during the Lex Fridman interview that they were over 2M now. I'm not sure how recent that would have occurred, but might that give any clues to production?

My best production tracking is this, though I could be off by a few as getting hold of accurate & reliable early numbers is tricksy:

My delivered sales numbers are slightly lower:

The 2m point fell during a quarter and didn't give any significant new info imho.

 

[Krugerrand]

It would be nice to round out the year with the production approvals for Berlin.

It would be nice if I could touch my toes without putting my back out. Dreams.

 

[Ohmster]

Pretty sure a cost of a recall is already covered by warranty reserves.

Yes. Smart companies do this where it is a significant risk. But I don’t think it is required so some don’t. I happen to be in one that doesn’t. Makes no sense not to when the liability is so large and probable.

 

[jerry33]

Doubtful.
They could burn bridges and announce abandoning of all future expansion due to 'terrible business environment ' once the current phase is permitted and commissioned.
But they'll just call him a vulture.

Not a problem. Vultures are protected.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I think the moose-head is his chief analyst, no?

His Chief Analyst is using an old profile pic on their LinkedIn profile to try to look younger.

Spoiler: Youth

Elsewhere on TMC, UK people without home charging have been asking a few questions about costs and options. Several companies such as Gridserve and Osprey have started rolling out "Electric Forecourts"/ charging hubs - often aimed at servicing an area/town, rather than a route. Probably 150-250 planned sites just for these two companies (4 years roughly). Solving this issue will Supercharge demand yet again. Costs are something like 30-40p/kwh - I haven't used a SuC for a while, maybe Tesla are around 35p/kwh (but not sure)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yes. Smart companies do this where it is a significant risk. But I don’t think it is required so some don’t. I happen to be in one that doesn’t. Makes no sense not to when the liability is so large and probable.

I’m almost 100% positive every car manufacturer has warranty reserves for every vehicle they make. This is a common thing in the auto sector.

 

[traxila]

I’m almost 100% positive every car manufacturer has warranty reserves for every vehicle they make. This is a common thing in the auto sector.

Question there is how many out of warranty, as these reserves are usually released AFAIK.

Regardless, max loss has been estimated at 70m, and it is most likely much lower than that.

 

[SOULPEDL]

They’re firing up the engines, I think everyone’s on board, great seats, first stop Texas. Paperwork filed correctly, no turning back. So fasten your seatbelts and don’t look down.
Doobie Bros, Captain and Me for some mood.

 

[Electroman]

This guy is worse than many care bears. I have not seen single tweet that show cases the tremendous progress made so far. Instead his feed is littered with, "FSD is a killer, Tesla is lying, the whole thing is a sham".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1476420485542039554

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Question there is how many out of warranty, as these reserves are usually released AFAIK.

Regardless, max loss has been estimated at 70m, and it is most likely much lower than that.

The one for the 3’s are all still covered by warranty. It goes back only to 2017.

Btw it wouldn’t make a difference anyways. We’re about to get to a point where a lot of cars are starting to be out of warranty, at which point Tesla can recognize the revenue in their esrnings that it has put aside in warranty reserves that ended up not being used.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I think the moose-head is his chief analyst, no?

Bullish!

 

[MP3Mike]

The one for the 3’s are all still covered by warranty. It goes back only to 2017.

No, it isn't. There are plenty of Model 3s that are out of warranty. (Warranties expire because of mileage as well as time.) There are people that have had to pay ~$400 to have this repaired. (They are hoping to get a refund now that it is a recall, and as far as I know that is a standard practice.)

 

[Electroman]

How can you be "CEO" of an organization of ONE??

How can you not be the CEO and janitor of a one person organization?

 

[Knightshade]

No, it isn't. There are plenty of Model 3s that are out of warranty. (Warranties expire because of mileage as well as time.) There are people that have had to pay ~$400 to have this repaired. (They are hoping to get a refund now that it is a recall, and as far as I know that is a standard practice.)

This sparked an interesting thought.

I imagine most companies recognize revenue from unused warranty reserves based solely on time- since they have no reliable way to know the mileage on the vehicle... (I guess they could have dealers report up during service visits but seems hit and miss on that).

Tesla in theory always can check how many miles any Tesla is at... so in theory could recognize this revenue sooner once a car passes X miles?

Can you not be the CEO and janitor of a one person organization?

He DOES (or did) actually have an employee other than himself.

We know this because he filed for and received a PPP loan, listing 2 total employees including himself...and his condo as his business address.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

No, it isn't. There are plenty of Model 3s that are out of warranty. (Warranties expire because of mileage as well as time.) There are people that have had to pay ~$400 to have this repaired. (They are hoping to get a refund now that it is a recall, and as far as I know that is a standard practice.)

Sure some could have gone past the milage, but that's the minority considering mass majority of those Model 3's being sold in the years 2019 and 2020 and not 2017-2018 due to Model 3's ramp. Driving over 50,000 miles in 2-3 years is not what most people do. The percentage of the Model 3's that aren't under warranty is going to be tiny.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Still no approvals for Berlin - But we have some Berlin produced vehicles being transported

https://twitter.com/x/status/1476545264970252288