Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

The car gets in the high school turn lane and shows no signs of slowing to avoid the curb at the end.

The algorithm tries to put the car in a position to succeed by minimizing decision points. If you have taken a driver's ed course, every decision is a chance to make a mistake.

This points out the inherent problem, no human needs to "learn" not to run into stationary objects.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Last I read it was Piedmont Lithium incompetence- they hadn't bothered to even begin filing some of the permits they needed years after claiming they were doing so... and local governments began to notice this disconnect.

Piedmont Lithium submits application for North Carolina mining permit

"Stop Piedmont Lithium" organizers are pushing people to submit complaints to North Carolina's Department of Environmental Quality.

www.wcnc.com

So the delays are all self-inflicted to this point.... only last month did they finally get their ducks enough in a row for public hearings about the mine.... certainly there was some NIMBY remarks made there, but that's not what's been holding this up for years.

The salt extract method possibly made Piedmont unnecessary? Lithium is abundant and easy to extract as we learned on battery day.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This points out the inherent problem, no human needs to "learn" not to run into stationary objects.

Pros and cons right. No human can see 360 while changing lanes.

I often wonder about human ability to see depth from context vs 3d. One eye is all I need to drive - mono vision. This could be a challenge for Tesla vision as we notice creeping for turning seems challenging. It needs to move to get depth until it’s out on the road in some cases.

Maybe their real world efforts will address this so assumptions can be made on vehicle distance for example purely on size. However, this could offer contradicting info as the 2 sensor methods could contradict. (ie., painted tunnel on a solid wall). Similar to the Lidar problem. Ironically, humans can be fooled as well.

These are not edge cases by my definition, instead they fall into the illusions category. Still though, FSD is likely near 10x safer. And if people had the guts to let the car play it through, my experience indicates much of this bad behavior won’t result in an accident. Quirky yes, accident no. I do this a lot whenever I can, then press the cam even though it eventually succeeds. But ya gotta be quick for sure.

 

[jerry33]

This points out the inherent problem, no human needs to "learn" not to run into stationary objects.

Strictly speaking, that's not true. Babies and toddlers need supervision so they don't fall down stairs, run into the road, etc. I suspect they learn not to run into things very early while crawling. AI doesn't really have a crawling stage where learning to avoid solid objects occurs.

 

[Ohmster]

Time to see what’s clearly in front of everyone else….

The next Tesla is proving hard to find — CNN Business

Finding the next Tesla among electric vehicle stocks is proving to be difficult.

apple.news

 

[JRP3]

Strictly speaking, that's not true. Babies and toddlers need supervision so they don't fall down stairs, run into the road, etc. I suspect they learn not to run into things very early while crawling. AI doesn't really have a crawling stage where learning to avoid solid objects occurs.

True but I was talking about humans capable of driving cars not toddlers. Though even babies have an inherent ability to avoid walking straight into walls.

 

[The Accountant]

Not sure if this has been posted already. In the past, many viewers have asked Wu Wa to keep his drone camera on the factory exit door so that it would be possible to compute the production rate. Wu Wa did just that with his latest video.
He filmed the Model Y departing the production area on the way to the logistics lot. Keep in mind this was filmed on Xmas Eve (not sure if there a is full staff that day).

In the first 10 min of this video, I counted vehicles exiting at these time-marks:
1:25
1:58
2:40
3:15
3:30
4:00
5:20
6:00
6:25
7:50
8:00
8:50
9:03
9:28
10:00

That's 15 cars in 10 min.

 

[SOULPEDL]

And from CNN. That’s a change.

 

[Sudre]

FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Electric Vehicle Charging Action Plan | The White House union hands on lithium mining too ?

These are the type of statements that can show if they are against Tesla or not....

"May 13th, DOT will publish standards for EV chargers in the national network"

If they are against Tesla they will standardize the charging plug (FINALLY!) and BAN adapters. It probably would not effect Tesla too much but they will think it will. I doubt they will go that direction. They should require UL listed adapters. This way at least someone is inspecting them to make sure they do not cause fires because Billy Bob created his own.... $19.95 in EBAY!

I am guessing they will pick CCS. We've already seen in other countries how this doesn't slow Tesla down in the slightest.

 

[Rarity]

FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Electric Vehicle Charging Action Plan | The White House union hands on lithium mining too ?

Setting aside how we as individuals feel about unions, I see a few possibilities:
(1) unions are popular in the United States and Biden is just doing the popular thing;
(2) Biden feels strongly that unions should be supported; and
(3) Biden is catering to unions because they are an important part of his base and/or they won him the election in the upper Midwest.

Except for the Midwest, private-sector unions aren't prevalent and are becoming decreasingly so. So I wonder about the politics of this and whether this is a passing fad. In any event, it seems like litigation on this could be in the future.

 

[dhanson865]

View attachment 748467

@wooter got it. The mug is available on a number of sites, and isn't Tesla-specific (as unbelievable as it sounds, some people have other hobbies!), but it does hit most of the high points. Only change I'd make is to delete the word "spare"!

I'd change "Research Tesla" to "Research TSLA".

 

[JustMe]

Setting aside how we as individuals feel about unions, I see a few possibilities:
(1) unions are popular in the United States and Biden is just doing the popular thing;
(2) Biden feels strongly that unions should be supported; and
(3) Biden is catering to unions because they are an important part of his base and/or they won him the election in the upper Midwest.

Except for the Midwest, private-sector unions aren't prevalent and are becoming decreasingly so. So I wonder about the politics of this and whether this is a passing fad.

This has been discussed to death, zombified, politicized, toxified, and banished. I am not sure more productive discussion on this topic is likely.

Fortunately, I think it’s also increasingly irrelevant to Tesla as it is literally raising prices in the face of overwhelming demand. Only OEMs that are desperate for government support will be materially affected by such questionable machinations

 

[petit_bateau]

CATL already announced a LFP plans for Shangahi: (Jun 6, 2021)
CATL Planning 80 GWh Battery Factory Near Tesla Giga Shanghai

WuWa thinks it's nearly completed already: (Nov 23, 2021)
CATL factory nears completion 3 km from Tesla factory\Teslashanghai\4K # 365


The Nov 2021 article is fairly specific in that it says the project is for "existing production lines". So I expect Model 2 must be separate. Another source says ~4K new employees due to this expansion, so that's another way to estimate increased production, given 19K employees total currently (maybe +25% production).

The article also mentions the project is for "derivatives of Model 3 and Model Y". I take that to mean SR+/LFP, not the Model 2 which will require far more factory space at the volumes required for the new car to be profitable.

I hold that the Model 2 factory will be a new build on what is now the earthworks to the NE of the new Giga Shanghai R&D Center. They're going to need serious logistics to make 1-2M Models 2 per year at Shanghai.

Well I guess that's good for about 1m cars/yr or thereabouts from the new CATL factory at 80kWh/car. If none of that new plant is operational yet then the approx 680k cars/yr that are currently coming from Tesla must be getting their cells from elsewhere. So combined that could get Shanghai to 1.7m/yr assuming none of the CATL packs are being shipped to Fremont. Or alternatively it allows 700k packs to be shipped to Fremont or Austin or Berlin for ramping and still get Shanghai to 1m/yr.

I too had been pencilling in the 2 factory on the dirt pile. So this does indeed sound like more 3 and Y. It would be real nice if they would do a hatchback 3 on the same outer mould lines ......

 

[StealthP3D]

This points out the inherent problem, no human needs to "learn" not to run into stationary objects.

I don't think that's true, judging by the evidence:

Police: 6-year-old child took truck keys overnight, crashed into Glendale home

Police say a young child took a set of keys overnight and drove a vehicle into a home in Glendale early Tuesday morning.

www.abc15.com

 

[madodel]

View attachment 748467

@wooter got it. The mug is available on a number of sites, and isn't Tesla-specific (as unbelievable as it sounds, some people have other hobbies!), but it does hit most of the high points. Only change I'd make is to delete the word "spare"!

But in fairness it’s a hobby a few of us have made a little money on, so how can that be a bad thing?

 

[JRP3]

I don't think that's true, judging by the evidence:

Police: 6-year-old child took truck keys overnight, crashed into Glendale home

Police say a young child took a set of keys overnight and drove a vehicle into a home in Glendale early Tuesday morning.

www.abc15.com

Exception proves the rule. Adults manage to run into things too.

 

[joh01652]

Problem is it's absolutely horrendous at knowing the right speed limit.... massively more so in city driving because there's so many fewer speed limit signs posted.

It very often defaults to 25 mph for roads around here that are 45 or 55... a +5 limit would max me at 30 on roads people are driving 2x that speed... so I often find myself having to frantically spin the speed scroll wheel up after it completes a local roads turn.


People get distracted over the "does tesla need HD maps" discussion-- because clearly they don't need millimeter accurate maps if vision works well... but a LOT of the code does need maps with accurate general info like number and type of lanes (esp important for prepping upcoming turns it can't yet see), as well as speed limits, if it's ever going to work well without a human to correct it.... there's been talk for a while of them using fleet data to build these, but presently it's still all 3rd party data which isn't as accurate or dense as it needs to be.

Yes, all valid points. It is frustrating to be in FSD when the car doesn't know the speed limit, especially on long road trips; it's nice to finally be able to override it.

I never understood/appreciated the concept of map discussions on this forum until now. From our house, the car wants to go through the woods to get to an appropriate road to the selected destination, or the car selects a tracing that goes out, and then comes right back on the same path when it could simply follow the shortest distance to the destination; makes no sense why it would go out and back on the same path, it's like one leg doesn't know what the other is doing, very strange. Seems like it would be a simple problem to fix, but then again I'm computer illiterate, so what do I know.

Also strange that the car can't even turn into a large, empty parking lot--from the rendering on the screen it can clearly "see" the surroundings, the drivable space is there, unobstructed, if it is vision-based it ought to be able at least nose into the parking lot then disengage FSD so the driver can take over from there.

What's the most used/active FSD Beta thread on TMC? I have questions/comments that would probably be best placed there.

 

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1475158734976561161

 

[Krugerrand]

This points out the inherent problem, no human needs to "learn" not to run into stationary objects.

Well, that’s not really true. There are plenty of people who drive ‘by feel’. As in, they purposely hit the curb or their garage door to tell them they’re parked, and other things.

 

[JRP3]

Well, that’s not really true. There are plenty of people who drive ‘by feel’. As in, they purposely hit the curb or their garage door to tell them they’re parked, and other things.

So these people also bounce off walls, buildings, cars, etc. to locate themselves while driving?