The EV credit as it stands may not increase EV adoption in the long run much like it didn’t in the first bill. History has shown the OEMs used the first bill to produce just enough bad EVs to garner that subsidy sale and increase the price of the vehicle to make a profit while maintaining their gas fueled car sales. They did little to advance mass production of EV’s to revolutionize the industry. Now the industry is at a point where price will kill off the gas fueled cars if the government does nothing. The subsidy truly just helps OEMs continue to make gas vehicles longer.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Uh, you mean US cars exported TO China (aka imported into China), right? I don't think the CHINA TO USA import tariff is that high..more like 1/10th of that most likely.
Last edited:
I think they had a plan for the cheaper 35K model, with cloth seats and a few other things.
When they looked at it in detail, all those changes didn't add up to sufficient savings to justify the lower price tag.
Then there was the issue of the additional complexity in manufacturing, inventory and spare parts.
This time around it might be different as they may be able to use 4680 LFP cells made in house,
Not only are cells cheaper, there are more of them, allowing more cars to be made. When they were cell constrained, it wasn't worth trying too hard for lower priced models.
I also think autopilot HW4 and some other parts might be part of the mix. To make the 25K car they need the price of all of these components in the right ballpark, They can then use the same part for Model 3.
Let's just say Elon is occasionally too optimistic, and that priorities and circumstances sometimes change.
They did hit some issues with Model 3 production that caused them to dial back they level of automation.
They know a lot more about high volume mass production now than they did in 2017.
So the cost of the car build exceeding their initial projections would not be a surprise.
We know that front and rear castings will help reduce the cost to build a car.
Last edited:
RobDickinson
Active Member
hmm mebe I am wrong, doesnt seem like an easy thing to even google but the results seem to throw up the wrong way round..
SunCatcher
Member
Tesla has already made $25k cars; Give it a few more years, and used Model 3s and Ys will have enough age and mileage on them that their resale values will finally reach that point. It may be awhile, but those with lower car buying budgets will have access to Teslas. These cars are going to last. And by then their reputations will have long preceded them.
yeah... cars TO china 25% import duty, cars TO USA 2.5% tariff.. much like the ROW into USA other than NAFTA (or NAFTA 2.0 now I guess). Now, the last administration DID put in some crazy 25% tariffs on car PARTS and some ELECTRONICS that go INTO cars, and that was bad and quite frankly unnecessary but who knows what influenced their thinking - or not thinking. At some point those too should go away or back to prior appropriate levels, but at this point they are bargaining chips (or to continue with todays theme - "chip in the big game!").. but it's not a ton of tariff on the big items, certainly not the 25% duty on a fully completed car going INTO China. 25% tariff on vehicle imports into China is just pure and unadulterated protectionism.
I bought my Model Y for $53,000 in February. It’s worth $65,000 now. I figure in 2-3 years it should be worth at least $75,000 - $80,000.
I've been cheering on the subsidies, although the prospect of saving $8-$12K on my eventual Model Y order is soured with the incessant price increases. But I've still favored the infrastructure bill for the jobs/economy stimulus.
Here is where I see what Elon said is true - those legacy OEM's will be glad to take the money and blather how they are retooling America for the future and the money is essential to get the competitive edge on China and blah blah blah.
They don't get it. They will never get it. They are transitioning to BEV because they are PAID to do it. Once they are 100% BEV, and that will be quite a while as they will stretch out the use of their engine plants in hybrids and PHEV for as long as possible, once they are fully BEV - they still won't get it.
They will do it because they have to, because many years of overproduction sold at a loss and subsequent bailouts before they are resigned to reality, forced them into doing what they don't want to do.
They'll take the money, they'll (slowly) build out a fleet of BEV.
But they still won't get it.
RobDickinson
Active Member
If you want to see how to boost EV sales by government action, then look at Norway, they have achieved 90% plug-in sales (most of them pure EV). They did not achieve this by throwing money at EV buyers, instead they have prohibitive taxes on ICE vehicles, all EVs got were exemption from various taxes and lower rates for ferries, parking and toll-roads. Totally different approach than giving subsidies for EV purchase. They are using the stick, not the carrot:
I’m NOT so sure the consumer adoption interest or rate is what you might expect… so they have been proceeding with quite a bit of caution in this area.
RobDickinson
Active Member
Frankly, I find this whole Elon not wanting USA subsidies to continue a bit hypocritical. They benefited greatly when others were trying to follow and if their MISSION STATEMENT is still “to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy” then they should be just as happy that other fast (or slow) followers get the same benefits and incentives that Tesla did. If not, It rings a bit hollow to me at least.
Krugerrand
Meow
EVERYONE had the EXACT same incentives as Tesla. Give your head a shake and stop believing the crap being fed to you by the media, the government, and those with agendas.
Tesla took the risk that absolutely no one else would.......there would be no EV market without them. Even remotely comparing the subsidies that benefited Tesla which were available to everyone at the time to this new set of very compromised subsidies is beyond silly.
RobDickinson
Active Member
The BBB incentives are structured as close to legally possible to be subsidies for specific union led car manufacturers who are solidly behind the 8 ball on EVs.
What they will do is fund high priced low volume union made EVs and massive numbers of small battery plug in hybrids.
If I am getting $8-8.5k off a car that has a 10kwh $1000 battery that barely saves any fuel use or $12k off a car I need to put in 7-8+ times that amount of kwh which am I going to focus on?
What they will do is fund high priced low volume union made EVs and massive numbers of small battery plug in hybrids.
If I am getting $8-8.5k off a car that has a 10kwh $1000 battery that barely saves any fuel use or $12k off a car I need to put in 7-8+ times that amount of kwh which am I going to focus on?
It’s the same subsidy (actually better for a true NA manufactuer), but with a bonus kicker… but I’m not for the bonus kicker for sure.
don‘t worry, Tesla will still get their money, that’s why they confidently raised prices - exactly as much as the primary subsidy. ;-)
*** here, let me put the target out for ya
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
And this is why I'm 100% against this bill. Based upon your own comments, I see no reason whatsoever to reward companies like this.
Ford, GM, Stelantis. I hope they all die and someone like Rivian, Lucid, etc. takes their place.
I could really care less if the BBB passes at this point or not. My post was in response to you saying Tesla was being hypocritical.
If Elon and Tesla don't support the BBB and feel it's unnecessary, that's not hypocritical at all. Especially when they were the only ones to take on risk. The only way Elon would be hypocritical here is if Tesla was the only one that was eligible for the original subsidies, which was not the case.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
