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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Small aside, is this the first we've seen of the assembly line at Giga New York?


Looks like it's assembling Solar Roof tiles, in-between the primary task of ringing a cowbell.
That looks kinda inefficient to me. Lots of open floor space and seemingly unnecessary motion. I don't understand why they set it up that way. Maybe it's experimental.
 
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Let's not re-write history. The Model 3 was Tesla's first high-volume car. But it wasn't because they struggled to get Model S to high volume, that was by design. Tesla never intended to produce the Model S or Model X in high volumes. And being good at making cars in high volume is not measured by the volume alone but by the value created. In other words, the cost per unit to manufacture. And in the context of over a century of auto-making, one decade is "waltzing right in". It's not like the majors didn't ridicule Tesla for the first 10 years.

Tesla is killing those who, by their own brags, have been making cars in volume for over a century. Watch it unfold now and (especially) over the next 2-3 years. And that's all I'm going to say on that.
Before the Model Y, every car Tesla produced was like pulling teeth trying to get them out and delivered. To say Tesla didn't struggle with production because they weren't meant to be produced in volume is rewriting history. Musk would have loved to scale production how he anticipated, and none of that came to fruition. The model S first production run was at a rate of 5 cars per week just like what rivian is going through. And Musk is sympathizing because he was in their shoes years ago.
 
8 week hold rule applies /IBD/Leaderboard
5845AA82-B110-4094-BF9E-720688A17E95.jpeg
 
Wait, I really want to buy more! I want it to go up because that’s great for the x number of shares I have but I still want to get 80-100 more, preferably on sale, to add to my collection.
When does a person ever say they bought their last TSLA shares, because I said that and two days later was trying to find a way to buy more.
I stopped at 1,420 shares last year. Just felt right. Now I buy LEAPS to get my TSLA fix. I won't rule out exercising a contract to pick up 100 shares here or there though.
 
Tesla received early commencement permitting for further construction and testing from Brandenburg State office of Environment, incl. complete paintshop cycle of 250 vehicles:

@GF4Tesla on Twitter has a link to the full document, for those interested in reading the 43 pages (German only). Page 5 refers to the 250 vehicles.

@Artful Dodger - it's the real deal....

Tesla is allowed to erect further parts of the plant and test them for operational capability

Potsdam - The State Office for the Environment has approved the construction of additional parts of the Tesla vehicle factory in two further approvals for early commencement. In addition, the operational capability of other parts of the plant that have already been erected may be tested.

With the two decisions on the 17th and 19th approvals of early start (ZvB), the State Office for the Environment has decided on all pending applications under § 8a of the Federal Immission Control Act. The construction of further parts of the wastewater pretreatment plant and the installation of technical building equipment in the area of the central supply and disposal building were approved. The construction of pipe bridges, including pipes, fittings and pumps, can now also take place.

The testing of the operational capability of facilities in the foundry and paint shop area, some of which were already approved with the 15th ZvB, may now be continued. Temporary auxiliary equipment such as compressors, coolers, cylinder bundles for the storage of technical gases and heating centres may be used for this purpose. In particular, pressure tests on various pipes and containers as well as the testing of various parts of the painting plant are permitted.

The final tests in the approval procedure are ongoing. Currently, the comments of objectors in the online consultation, which ended on 14 October, are being examined. From 2 November, the online consultation will be repeated for reasons of legal certainty. A date for a decision can therefore not be given.
 
8 week hold rule applies /IBD/Leaderboard
I had to look up that stock trading rule.

As per its name, It says if a stock in IBD’s market leader board moves in certain way that triggered the rule then hold your shares for at least 8 weeks after the rule is triggered even if there is a sell-off because the pattern suggests it can go much higher.

IBD Eight Week Hold Rule

Edit: adding an applicable quote from @Right_Said_Fred :

It could be that TA doesn’t work, it could be that it does. Fact is that thousands of investors base their decisions on TA patterns, making them a self-fulfilling prophecy. So even if TA doesn’t work (I think it does), the fact that so many act on it makes it very valuable.

LInk
 
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I had to look up that stock trading rule.

As per its name, It says if the stock price moves in certain way that triggered the rule then hold your shares for at least 8 weeks after the rule is triggered because the price can go much higher.

IBD Eight Week Hold Rule

Some of this gets discussed in the TA thread, I thought it might could happen and gave my impression of what price would trigger this. Basically it comes down to if a really strong move happens quickly after a basing period, it indicates strong interest. IBD normally says to take some off the table after 20% move (I think, not really sure) but they suggest if the move happens in three weeks, one gives up potential huge gains.



 
Fundamentally battery cell production requires:-
  • Raw materials - IMO Tesla needs lithium clay extraction to work.... then LFP batteries are not constrained by raw materials.
  • Factories - even with the Battery Day Tech it will take some time to build these, but sites/capex should be no problem...
  • Staff - have enough experienced engineers and production staff might be an issue...
Tesla might make energy storage batteries are car factories, but more likely they make batteries for cars, and divert some cells from external suppliers to energy storage.

Eventually I think Tesla might have some factories just to make batteries for energy storage...

When we consider the battery day aim of 3TWh of cell production by 2030 at least 1 TWh of that is LFP made for energy storage, the big problem seems to be having enough Lithium, the next biggest problem is having enough experienced staff.
I agree that they seem constrained on getting to 3TWh. Lithium is out there, there is just so much. Refining capacity is not out there and it is largely constrained to China. We need massive refining capacity boost in EU, SA, and NA. Staff..yes. Frankly I don't see how we are hitting this, it would require more than an order of magnitude increase in production from that which is planned today. I don't see today's capacity getting to even 200GWh until a few more years.
 

For those who don’t have access to Bloomberg.
It’s like rent to make $ type of deal.
For hertz to risk this just again shows how resilient Teslas are. And the resale value holds so well. This bold move by Hertz is excellent.
I am sure other companies will follow suit.
 
I had to look up that stock trading rule.

As per its name, It says if a stock in IBD’s market leader board moves in certain way that triggered the rule then hold your shares for at least 8 weeks after the rule is triggered even if there is a sell-off because the pattern suggests it can go much higher.

IBD Eight Week Hold Rule

Edit: adding an applicable quote from @Right_Said_Fred :

It could be that TA doesn’t work, it could be that it does. Fact is that thousands of investors base their decisions on TA patterns, making them a self-fulfilling prophecy. So even if TA doesn’t work (I think it does), the fact that so many act on it makes it very valuable.

LInk
This is super important. Knowing the rules that a significant part of the stock market uses to buy and sell helps make the world rational as you HODL.

Here it is as observations:

People who've never driven a Tesla trade stocks and move their money around to make sure it is always appreciating as fast as possible.​
This includes some people who own Teslas.​
This means they move their money out of a stock when it is going sideways, like Tesla has been most of the year.​
When a stock does move up, that money has to come back (for the folks who are out to realize the gains), making the price move up even more. It might take 8 weeks.​

So knowing the other team's plays and cues can help one not get happy feet.