Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Beltsbear]

As an investor and TSLA shareholder I agree, given the current demand raising prices makes sense.

As a consumer hoping to buy my first Tesla next year, a Model Y LR, I am upset because the price of my next car keeps climbing higher and higher. At this point I'll likely just keep my current 2015 Subaru Crosstrek much longer than I intended until the prices of Tesla's fall again. I don't care how wealthy I am, as a frugal individual I do not like paying more for a product than I want to, and right now the price of a LR MY is more than I'd want to spend.

Thankfully I do love my little Crosstrek, and if my TSLA shares skyrocket quicker than I expect then frack it I'll pay whatever Tesla wants for a Model Y.

Same boat here. I have an cybertruck order, but also was considering a Model 3 after federal rebate in addition. This was an edge purchase, meaning we could just keep our other gas car. Now with the higher price, it will not happen. As a stockholder, I understand. But I hate hearing the lie 'its inflation'. Because it is not. Profit margins are going up, not down.

While Tesla will get some more revenue for free, when Berlin and TX are both online, to address that market they will indeed need lower prices. So there are going to be a bunch of price drops later, pissing off the customers who buy now at the current 'peak'. I think the price increases were acceptable until the Model 3 hit $39.990. But the latest one is just too much and will result in unhappy customers, both who purchased and now those who cannot purchase.

 

[StealthP3D]

Lol....and I'm fairly sure that "reporting" was from more than a year ago. I guess CNBC thought it was a good time to rinse and repeat!

I actually feel bad for these journalists. There's no place for them anymore. Relegated to just shutting up and printing what they're told. Sad.

Except that Lora K. is not just "shutting up and doing as she's told", she is actively Tweeting anti-Tesla propaganda on her personal Twitter feed.

Do you feel bad for TSLAQ too because they are part of a cult and only doing what they are told?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Same boat here. I have an cybertruck order, but also was considering a Model 3 after federal rebate in addition. This was an edge purchase, meaning we could just keep our other gas car. Now with the higher price, it will not happen. As a stockholder, I understand. But I hate hearing the lie 'its inflation'. Because it is not. Profit margins are going up, not down.

While Tesla will get some more revenue for free, when Berlin and TX are both online, to address that market they will indeed need lower prices. So there are going to be a bunch of price drops later, pissing off the customers who buy now at the current 'peak'. I think the price increases were acceptable until the Model 3 hit $39.990. But the latest one is just too much and will result in unhappy customers, both who purchased and now those who cannot purchase.

I'd gladly make a friendly wager that IF the EV credit/rebate passes, Tesla will not drop prices for the next 3 years at minimum. In fact I think they will introduce the Model 2(or whatever it's called) at that time and not drop the price of the 3/Y for 5 years.

 

[cusetownusa]

Same boat here. I have an cybertruck order, but also was considering a Model 3 after federal rebate in addition. This was an edge purchase, meaning we could just keep our other gas car. Now with the higher price, it will not happen. As a stockholder, I understand. But I hate hearing the lie 'its inflation'. Because it is not. Profit margins are going up, not down.

While Tesla will get some more revenue for free, when Berlin and TX are both online, to address that market they will indeed need lower prices. So there are going to be a bunch of price drops later, pissing off the customers who buy now at the current 'peak'. I think the price increases were acceptable until the Model 3 hit $39.990. But the latest one is just too much and will result in unhappy customers, both who purchased and now those who cannot purchase.

If the EV credit doesn't get passed I could definitely see them dropping prices when Texas/Berlin are fully ramped and meeting/exceeding demand at current prices. However, if it does get passed, I don't see supply exceeding demand for a long while, unless they increase prices again.

That's why I put my order in now...if it doesn't get passed by next Aprilish then I could decide to wait until Texas/Berlin ramp and maybe prices decrease...if it does pass, then I am already in line and will have beat the mad dash to order Teslas.

 

[Drezil]

If the cells have adhesive on the top and bottom, then that implies it's the honeycomb carrier that's the primary structural component, not the cells themselves At least in the traditional "honeycomb" sense of the word where the sandwich supplies torsional rigidity in addition to shear strength.

For the cell cans to really be structural members, they would need to be bonded to each neighboring cell along the vertical axis where they make contact. In the scenario above they are only bonded on the ends and would "float" in the carrier rather than being bonded along the sides.

If the cell is designed as you mention with a large end cap radius and there is no carrier, then the end cap would prevent the cell cans from being able to touch and be bonded.


This would seem to be a departure from what was described on battery day.

This is a frame from the TSLA Battery-Recruitment-Viedo.
In the front you can see that while sealing the cell there is a slight ring around one side (in front in this shot). If you stack them, then you have little spaces between the cells. These can be filled up with e.g. epoxy. If you could pack them tightly, then you had to fill every hole one-by-one.
But i still think that you need some kind of honeycomb-sheet with indents to align them fast & good.

Most of my thesis is from

..Especially the "Pack assembly process". He supposes the honeycomb is pre-cast flame-retadant/epoxy to fit the cells - Not aluminuim as in racing cars.

To bond the cells directly together is not good, if one cell overheats & burns, as the heat would transfer to all neighboring cells via the metal bat-to-bat-connection instead of through the cooling plate, making the whole pack more susceptible to thermal runaway reactions.

One distinct observation: In Jordans video he suspects the ring to be on the bottom, but in the screenshot above it looks to me like the ring is now at the top. This would also eliminate the "flip" needed for the pack after fitting them into the holes.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There are several reasons to invest in Tesla. An important one is that Elon knows this, and periodically closes the door on them.

Elon might be aware of this now, but mostly the credit must go to new Tesla Board Member Hiromichi Mizuno (joined the BoD in Apr 2020):

Hiro Mizuno | Tesla Investor Relations​

His years managing the largest Pension fund in the world (Japan) would have allowed him to understand the underlying dynamics of persistent naked short positions, and how to force them to cover.

That's why Telsa issued the $5B in new equity on Sep 1, 2020: to collect the fee from the shorts for their transgressions. Brilliant tactics, a One-Two Knockout punch.

Shortzes be livid. Then, S&P 500. Rince, Repeat.

Naked Short Selling: The Truth Is Much Worse Than You Have Been Told | OilPrice.com

Cheers!

 

[FS_FRA]

I consider the major news networks (CNN, FOX, CNBC, etc) to be propaganda, corrupt, and untrustworthy. I find Rob Mauer and Sandy Munro to be excellent sources of information with their YouTube channels.

I consider them the <1% I was referring to.

The rest are a waste of bits (or is it bytes?) and bandwidth.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Day traders must be loving this. MM's battling like hell creating crazy swings. I'm taking the day off.

 

[Baumisch]

sometimes you can just be in aw about Tesla:

My Tesla mechanic in Germany - Jürgen Zimmermann - discovered on his channel that newer M3s from China ship without hight-level sensors on the axels - in Germany you need load-adjusted headlights to stay level - this usually works via those sensors.

The current MIC-3 show them missing (and lumbar lol):

He then tested if with 190kg load in the trunk the car still levels - and voila - it does - and he doesn't know how. He suggests tesla killes those sensors as they have smartphone-sensors already in the car that show level.

The AHA moment is on 8:18

This company is just amazing - no german OEM would have seen any issue here - but the best part is no part! great work Tesla

 

[jbcarioca]

Thanks for the link...might have to try some!

Come to Rio. He'll serve you himself and the friend in the photos will probably be with him.
We can even drink it by that waterfall, just a few minutes from my house.

 

[dhanson865]

and

and

all from Disqus Profile - aldrichbautista

Jan 2021, Feb 2021, or Mar 2021 would have been the best time to buy/order (lowest price) for each model. Delivery would have been some time after that.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

GM says it will double annual revenue by 2030 to $280 billion in digital push to be seen more like Tesla

GM kicks off the first of a two-day investor meeting where it will detail exactly how it will grow revenue and profit margins.

www.cnbc.com

I'll link to this CNBC article......just because of the hilarious comments made in it. It's worth a read just to get a smile on your face.

Some amazing nuggets in there -

"The revenue goal is based on a rolling average of about $140 billion for the automaker in recent years, a company spokesman said. GM’s revenue last year was nearly $122.5 billion, down 10.8% compared with 2019 thanks largely to factory shutdowns at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. Its operating profit margin was 7.9% in 2020."

The try to make it sound like 2020 should just be thrown out the window in terms of growth. Problem with that? 2019's revenue was 138 billion.......2018's revenue was 147 billion......2017's 145 billion.....2016's 149 billion. They've been in a long term revenue decline for years and they think that trends is suddenly going to reverse....

My Fav nugget -

"The automaker announced the new revenue target, along with fatter projected operating profit margins of 12% to 14%, Wednesday."

Tesla will likely do 14% operation margin on Q4.......on around 13-14 billion in revenue. GM can't even beat that on 280 billion in revenue....double

 

[thx1139]

Maybe some people will do that, but with a half-year waiting list to get *any* new Model Y they would just shorten the queue a bit. They will still sell every Model Y they make because the sale price is less than the market-clearing price. Also, customers will get a car from the factory nearest to them.

Creates unnecessary complexity. As for nearest to them that should be Tesla to manage. That doesnt help the customer. A shorter shipping distance helps keep costs down and avoids car delivery delays.

 

[ZachF]

GM says it will double annual revenue by 2030 to $280 billion in digital push to be seen more like Tesla

GM kicks off the first of a two-day investor meeting where it will detail exactly how it will grow revenue and profit margins.

www.cnbc.com

I'll link to this CNBC article......just because of the hilarious comments made in it. It's worth a read just to get a smile on your face.

Some amazing nuggets in there -

"The revenue goal is based on a rolling average of about $140 billion for the automaker in recent years, a company spokesman said. GM’s revenue last year was nearly $122.5 billion, down 10.8% compared with 2019 thanks largely to factory shutdowns at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. Its operating profit margin was 7.9% in 2020."

The try to make it sound like 2020 should just be thrown out the window in terms of growth. Problem with that? 2019's revenue was 138 billion.......2018's revenue was 147 billion......2017's 145 billion.....2016's 149 billion. They've been in a long term revenue decline for years and they think that trends is suddenly going to reverse....

My Fav nugget -

"The automaker announced the new revenue target, along with fatter projected operating profit margins of 12% to 14%, Wednesday."

Tesla will likely do 14% operation margin on Q4.......on around 13-14 billion in revenue. GM can't even beat that on 280 billion in revenue....double

GM's revenue, at ~$120b is roughly the same at it was in 1991

FORTUNE 500: 1991 Archive Full List 1-100

Nevermind the 30 years of inflation....

Also, if you add up the last 30 years of profits and losses for GM, it essentially adds up to nothing.

 

[elasalle]

Today is about GM, but tomorrow will be about Tesla (share holder meet)

All new Kids on the EV block are getting a free pass on projections.

Incumbent EV maker Tesla needs to keep showing their goods

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's like.... in the Mid Morning, it seem to Dip...

... now on the Dollar Menu: "All-Day Breakfast"

Cheers!

 

[Buckminster]

Needs no introduction:

 

[StealthP3D]

Elon might be aware of this now, but mostly the credit must go to new Tesla Board Member Hiromichi Mizuno (joined the BoD in Apr 2020):

Hiro Mizuno | Tesla Investor Relations​

His years managing the largest Pension fund in the world (Japan) would have allowed him to understand the underlying dynamics of persistent naked short positions, and how to force them to cover.

We are very fortunate to have Hiro on board! What a great human! Maybe I'll start spelling "hero" as "hiro".

I think it's hard to tell who knew what, when. We do know Elon was fed up with the shorts, being a public company, etc. well before Hiro joined. So, while Hiro might have brought some strategy and color to the situation, I think Elon was aware of what was happening before that and Hiro, having common interests, joined forces and helped out with the situation.

 

[PeterJA]

View attachment 718388
This is a frame from the TSLA Battery-Recruitment-Viedo.
In the front you can see that while sealing the cell there is a slight ring around one side (in front in this shot). If you stack them, then you have little spaces between the cells. These can be filled up with e.g. epoxy. If you could pack them tightly, then you had to fill every hole one-by-one.
But i still think that you need some kind of honeycomb-sheet with indents to align them fast & good.

Most of my thesis is from

..Especially the "Pack assembly process". He supposes the honeycomb is pre-cast flame-retadant/epoxy to fit the cells - Not aluminuim as in racing cars.

To bond the cells directly together is not good, if one cell overheats & burns, as the heat would transfer to all neighboring cells via the metal bat-to-bat-connection instead of through the cooling plate, making the whole pack more susceptible to thermal runaway reactions.

One distinct observation: In Jordans video he suspects the ring to be on the bottom, but in the screenshot above it looks to me like the ring is now at the top. This would also eliminate the "flip" needed for the pack after fitting them into the holes.

This debate is off-topic and has gone on way too long, but I don't understand why you continue to believe Jordan rather than Elon.

Elon said "adhesive" between the cells. Anything "precast" is not adhesive. Jordon doesn't understand what Elon said, and doesn't understand the physics of beams. Elon does understand what he said and the physics.

Perhaps the on-topic lesson here is we should pay close attention to what Elon and Tesla say, not the speculation of outsiders, even if well-intentioned.

 

[capster]

I think I'd last 30 minutes in a US firm

I can't abide racism, but I like to flirt with the office girls and I swear like a dunk navvy...

Millet beer, @Artful Dodger - doesn't sound appealing, I think the closest I got was some quinoa stuff they brew over here - not too bad, but a disappointingly low ABV @4.5%

Ugh. Don’t you see that that flirting is one motivation for the policing of behavior? Yes, policing can be heavy handed at times. Would that it were unnecessary!

It would be nice if, based on self-respect and respect for others, self-restraint kept one’s comments (and eyes) to oneself in the workplace. Falling short of that, the cad person might find the wherewithal, through sheer embarrassment, to shut it by imagining the women sharing that person’s quips with one another to choruses of "ewww!!"