Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jw934]

Interesting test of disengagement of driver assist systems in 17 different cars. The point being that the FUD surrounding Tesla for that accident, and the Consumer Report article on how "easily" to cheat Tesla's system were unfounded.

It's Not Just Tesla: All Other Driver-Assist Systems Work without Drivers, Too

Our testing found that none of today's driver-assistance systems can sniff out drivers aggressively misusing them.

www.caranddriver.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

Back to the SP....real nice pop a few minutes ago.
Before it was trending down.

Are you certain you want to bring that up here in the "Politics" thread? Could lead to off-topics. /S

Nobody here other than you mentioned the jump. There was no discussion of any news that may have been the trigger. Zero value added here. Politics is toxic.

SP jump happened at 08:30 ET precisely. Looks like a burst of ~20K shares traded in a few minutes. Shortzes and wedgies waited until the Open to commence their inevitable SP walk-down.

Super-low volume again today: Pre-market quite low at 219K (including the 8:30 "burst" above, and then a miserly 2.7M shares traded in the 1st hour of the Main session (very low).

 

[DFibRL8R]

no electric Corvette for < 40 K

Glass Half Full.
CT would do well with this bill. < 40K, many more blue collar buyers

Modular battery packs needed so initial sell is for just 25KwH battery

Or just software limit the range on the batteries and allow the full range to be unlocked after delivery for a fee. This has the added benefit of reducing the base price for those of us who pay annnual state personal property tax on a vehicle.

 

[nativewolf]

I wish we had real data for how many working people use truck as you describe and how may are posers. I suspect it's close to 10/90, but I don't really know.

It would be interesting to know for sure. What we do know is that the market will sort it all out. It's ok to have some legacy trucks out there doing real work. What's important is to transition as quickly as possible to EVs and the edge cases that we see will get resolved at some point. Even if 70/30 it would be a huge gain getting the 70% moved off ICE to EV. it would be about 2 million vehicles a year in trucks.

 

[Stretch2727]

Guess we are going to need more than 2% EV to reduce sales of gasoline. Salesin the US back at pre-pandemic levels.

Weekly U.S. Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels per Day)

Disappointing given all the BEV, PHEV, Hybrids.

 

[The Accountant]

With Shanghai taking on Export responsibilities, Fremont can now feed the profitable North American market.

- Despite price increases on Models 3 & Y, we see a huge increase in shipments to NA (reaching over 100k in Q3)
- With these price increases coupled with lower logistics costs (shipping within NA is cheaper than shipping to Europe), profits margins will improve.
- Q3 Estimates are from TroyTeslike (which I believe are conservative as he is showing an overall decline to Q2)

 

[DarkandStormy]

So....China FUD always evident during 1st qtr...but according to a semi-reliable source:

"Tesla's sales drop in the Chinese market was because it needs to ensure adequate supplies abroad where the demand was huge," Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association, told the Global Times on Wednesday, noting that Tesla needs to balance demand from both China and overseas in order to maximize global sales volume

View attachment 695188

https://twitter.com/x/status/1082143023272730629

Giga Shanghai was supposed to serve the entire China market and Tesla departed from that plan ~one year in.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I wish we had real data for how many working people use truck as you describe and how may are posers. I suspect it's close to 10/90, but I don't really know.

Thought you might like this lol What Does Your Work Truck Say About You?

 

[The Accountant]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1082143023272730629

Giga Shanghai was supposed to serve the entire China market and Tesla departed from that plan ~one year in.

Yes the plan changed. What are you implying? Too much demand? Not enough demand?
Or just stating a fact and not implying anything - which is fine...just trying to understand your post.

 

[SN_8]

Elon is arriving in Berlin from Italy soon.

Time to get back to work, slacker.

 

[82bert]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1082143023272730629

Giga Shanghai was supposed to serve the entire China market and Tesla departed from that plan ~one year in.

Tesla’s ability to be so incredibly nimble is one of the many reasons it’s so successful and why the legacy companies are doomed for failure.

 

[Krugerrand]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1082143023272730629

Giga Shanghai was supposed to serve the entire China market and Tesla departed from that plan ~one year in.

So, what is the point you want to make? How do you want us to interpret your statement?

 

[DarkandStormy]

Yes the plan changed. What are you implying? Too much demand? Not enough demand?
Or just stating a fact and not implying anything - which is fine...just trying to understand your post.

That this forward looking statement in a 10-Q turned out to be incorrect, meaning they possibly misread the situation (either about their ability to get production out of Berlin on their predicted schedule or about the local demand in China). Not implying anything (because the reasons could be numerous), but it is a rather quick pivot from a publicly stated plan for Shanghai. And it looks like until Berlin comes online, Tesla will continue to lose market share in Europe and China. Kind of picking their poison at the moment (in terms of market share).

 

[Unpilot]

So, what is the point you want to make? How do you want us to interpret your statement?

Just like in investing....one can observe a trend.
Sometimes a person generally post's good news....other times...not so much.

 

[aronth5]

FWIW this isn't what they did for the Model 3 launch-- the cheaper RWD one shipped for almost a full year before the first "expensive" AWD and P models ever did- though they certainly seem to have moved to your described model for future launches.

Yes and I was an early Model 3 buyer who pulled the trigger on the cheaper RWD even though I preferred AWD. At the time there was the chance the delayed availability of the AWD and P Models wouldn't happen until after the $7,500 tax credit was exhausted. Turns out that didn't happen but Tesla was not forthcoming on providing dates (what a surprise!) so I wanted to be sure I locked in the federal tax credit and my states EV refund. Combined good for $10k.

 

[elasalle]

View attachment 695207

That this forward looking statement in a 10-Q turned out to be incorrect, meaning they possibly misread the situation (either about their ability to get production out of Berlin on their predicted schedule or about the local demand in China). Not implying anything (because the reasons could be numerous), but it is a rather quick pivot from a publicly stated plan for Shanghai. And it looks like until Berlin comes online, Tesla will continue to lose market share in Europe and China. Kind of picking their poison at the moment (in terms of market share).

Nothing was set in stone, you adapt as situation requires. (Agile)

.Did Tesla foresee 500K run rate in < 2 years? Did they plan in advance to make China export hub this quickly?
.Can China GF 3/Y lines be turned into 25K prod lines if required? Can more variations models be included for China?
.How to manage supply-chain, global deliveries once Giga Berlin, Austin come online?
.What is the rate of transition to EV, are we at a tipping point? How quickly will it happen?
.Has EV demand in US surged recently, can ~ 500K Fremont output be mainly for NA?
.How is Tesla coming to the ~20M number by 2030?

Jack be Nimble, Jack be quick ...

TRUST TESLA!!

 

[insaneoctane]

“Republican Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska proposed prohibiting people making more than $100,000 a year from claiming EV tax credits and to end tax credits for EVs that cost more than $40,000 -- levels that would exclude many of the electric vehicles on the market or planned to come to the…”

…Make sure that only middle class incomes will be subsidized to buy ‘cheap’ BEVs, cause you know, ‘for da people!’.…

$100K in many popular high tech footholds (where EV buyers are populous) is questionably middle class. Wonder if that’s single or joint filing?

 

[AudubonB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1082143023272730629

Giga Shanghai was supposed to serve the entire China market and Tesla departed from that plan ~one year in.

If you knew what you were talking about, the sole departure from the plans shown in Mr Musk’s tweets is that the costlier versions of the Models 3 & Y being sold in China (if indeed there are any) are not coming from Fremont. And that is an Inconsequentially minor departure.

Why? Why not the earlier tweet, as you and, apparently, many of those who jumped on your post seem to be assuming and either defending or castigating? Because Mr Musk used the correct term. The “greater China region” specifically means NE Asia, SE Asia, Australia and New Zealand, and it has meant that for many decades.

 

[Paracelsus]

“Republican Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska proposed prohibiting people making more than $100,000 a year from claiming EV tax credits and to end tax credits for EVs that cost more than $40,000 -- levels that would exclude many of the electric vehicles on the market or planned to come to the…”

The language here is clear, this is based on tax credits. Like the previous exhausted tax credits (for Tesla and GM) you only get the money back if you paid it in US federal taxes. Furthermore, the ceiling of 40K, while possibly advantageous for Tesla, is a joke for the overall EV market which this is supposed to subsidize and encourage.

Obviously the details remain to be worked out, but it is simple to see what the attack plan is for the status quo. Make sure that only middle class incomes will be subsidized to buy ‘cheap’ BEVs, cause you know, ‘for da people!’. The fact that this combination will apply to only a small percentage of buyers, especially the BEV price tag, sounds terrific to them.

Yes, this. And because Nebraska is a massive ethanol producer and monoculture state. IMO, Senator Deb Fischer appears to be working to slow the growth of Tesla/EV's to protect ethanol production on monoculture fields in Nebraska. Disappointing. But no less disappointing than watching Warren Buffett's coal trains from Wyoming roll through Nebraska and power many of Nebraska's power plants with The Oracle from Omaha's coal & coal trains. There was some efforts to bring wind generation to Nebraska a couple decades ago. Like South Dakota, Nebraska could also be considered a Wind Capital of the US while being capable of producing far more solar than many states further north that are aggressively adopting solar and storage programs. But this was met with much opposition locally. Why? Who knows what contributed to that 'opposition'. And a huge solar farm proposed outside Lincoln, NE has now been met with similar opposition despite its ability to put very cheap and clean power on the grid.

And interestingly, Sioux Falls South Dakota has a massive wind generation fabrication plant that produces wind generators as fast as it can, which could all be deployed within the state. You will see this on the north side of Interestate 90 just east of Sioux Falls. But you don't really start seeing fields of wind generators until you cross the state line into Minnesota. And most of those windmills in Minnesota are located in monoculture fields of corn and soybeans that are literally identical to those found in South Dakota and Nebraska. It isn't the geographic opportunities of these states that are accelerating or decelerating the adoption of renewables on a large scale. It is the politics, such as Deb Fischer. And IMO it is the investors, such as Warren Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway, located in Omaha just 50 short miles from Nebraska's capital where those coal trains keep rolling through.

 

[henchman24]

I think the China pivot is pretty simple. More, better, and agnostic access to batteries combined with much higher margins. In China, Tesla isn't reliant on one chemistry of battery, and for the 3/Y in Fremont, one source (GF Nevada). Then a better designed factory with cheaper pieces through the supply chain means they can have much better margins, especially in Europe where they don't seem to mind a made in China car.

It won't happen for years, but I really don't think Fremont will stay being a high volume factory for Tesla. After Berlin, Austin, another Asian GF, and another NA factory.... I see Fremont only handling low volume vehicles like the Roadster and S/X. The efficiencies in the new design are pretty obvious and there are significant margin improvements.